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How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by studegator, Mar 13, 2024.

  1. studegator

    studegator GC Legend

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    Cooked up numbers—-

    How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

    Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

    If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

    The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.
     
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  2. gatorjo

    gatorjo GC Hall of Fame

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    That's a pretty kooky disinformation site you link to.
     
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  3. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Pretty desperate to be peddling this stuff when most of Gaza is in ruins and no one doubts tens of thousands are dead
     
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  4. sierragator

    sierragator GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, and the holocaust never happened too. The never again nation is committing atrocities. Trying to sugar coat it is a bad look. ( and no, I'm not ok with what happened Oct 7)
     
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  5. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Not clicking the link, but what's the point here? 20,000 dead not 30,000 dead means something?

    It's like the j6 debate happening here: that only 140 police were assaulted, not "100s beaten". As if this type of quibbling changes reality in any way.

    Anyone peddling these types of attempted deflections just look like denialists.
     
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  6. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Yeah, and if your sources are basically the IDF or Israeli government, you are just laundering their propaganda at this point
     
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  7. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    . What is the average civilian casualty during any war ? History shows 60% and up to 90% for urban warfare. War itself is horrendous. Knowing these numbers go back a century, the Gaza conflict numbers are actually lower for urban than conflicts in the past. Hamas can stop this conflict now by surrendering and turning over hostages. But they chose to start and choose to continue this fight…. Hamas started a war on their terms but doesn’t get to fight a war on solely their terms.

    Ninety Per Cent of War-Time Casualties Are Civilians, Speakers Stress, Pressing Security Council to Fulfil Responsibility, Protect Innocent People in Conflicts | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

    Urban Warfare | Center for Civilians in Conflict

    Civilian casualty ratio - Wikipedia
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2024
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  8. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    This holds no water in a conflict where only one combatant has been getting shelled for months.
     
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  9. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Not to mention there have been offers to return all the hostages in exchange for an end to hostilities and Israel has refused.
     
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  10. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    Sorry, That’s a straw man. This likely stops tomorrow if Hamas unequivocally surrenders. Turns over all weopons for destruction and returns all hostages. But they will never do that as they know their Persian friends would cut off their money and cut their throats. Hamas started this. Hamas got little over their skis and getting back a little more than they thought and now want a ceasefire. Of course they do. The civilian deaths would be at zero, but Hamas chose otherwise and as I showed according to past statistics done by the UN the civilian casualty rate is actually significantly lower in this conflict than past urban conflicts.
     
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  11. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    That’s an odd statement. One side started the war by cutting throats and raping concert goers and other civilians in their home. One side fires indiscriminately at civilian population via unguided rockets and the other uses mostly precision strikes. One side knowingly keeps fighters and weapons in, Under and around schools and hospitals and the other doesn’t. Is it your belief if Hamas had more weapons the civilian casualty rate would go down ? Stop it. Nobody believes that.
     
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  12. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    I think Israel has accidentally killed more hostages than they've freed through military action. No one with a brain thinks what they are doing is to get hostages back, because its the worst possible way to go about it, just wholesale bombing of civilian areas. So, you are the one employing the strawman here I think. Everyone can see they are pursuing other designs here and using "why dont they just surrender" as an excuse not to negotiate and pursue ethnic cleansing and forcibly removing the population. They've been conducting military operations in places Hamas doesn't even control anything as the war has expanded. Its been months since anyone could make the argument you are making here in any sort of good faith, sorry.
     
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  13. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Wait, the Terrorists are lying? Don't worry, some idiots on here will say 1
    How come you aren't asking for the hostages to be released? Seems like most don't give a crap about them...
     
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  14. archigator_96

    archigator_96 GC Hall of Fame

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    Hamas should start shelling or sending rockets back then. Or come out and start attacking Israeli soldiers and civilians.
     
  15. Trickster

    Trickster VIP Member

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    Regardless of the actual number killed, the Israeli reaction has been out of proportion to the stimulus. Most Palestinians are like everyone else: they just want to have family, friends, peace and enjoyment of life. Israel has destroyed that, and continues to do so. According to recent reports, they are even hindering humanitarian aid. Plus, they've announced 3,000 new settlements in the West Bank!
     
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  16. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Nothing odd about it. If Hamas had Israel's military, civilian casualty rates would probably be double - there would probably be 20-30,000 dead Israeli citizens, too.

    But alas, they don't so it's one side shelling the other into oblivian and you want to quibble over how many 10's of thousands have been killed.
     
  17. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    Because this is a thread about claimed casualty numbers.
     
  18. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Why did @Trickster dislike this? The numbers don’t lie, they are clearly cooked.
     
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  19. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Did you actually read it? The numbers are pretty compelling. It seems like a pro Israel / Jewish site. Not sure why kooky.
     
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  20. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Did you look at the article? They make a pretty strong case that the numbers are cooked.

    While I agree BN is escalating this war for self serving reasons, on the flip side, from their perspective I understand the thought process that the only way to prevent this is from decimating their capabilities, which are intertwined among civilian sites. It could be that many of the causalities are actually Hamas, and the collateral damage is within the normal range of war. Whether or not one thinks that is justified is a matter of opinion, but it’s different than the narrative that Israel is indiscrimately bombing women and children.