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How many more wins this year?

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by gatorin1963, Sep 21, 2024.

  1. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    I don’t disagree with the probable not wins but at one point all but FSU of our remaining games are in the top 10. They all were.

    Defense was friggen amazing against Tenn and Kentucky. Stop saying the things that people say. Things change and we had a freshman pick 6. Another pick, a good one. Somehow our o-line looked incredible. DJ entered a record that tied Tebow and other greats and threw for over 6+ 40+ yards and they were Wuerfell to Doering-esque throws in great position. It’s somehow become cool to dog on our team. I say F that SHITE! Last two weeks, we have had reason to look forward and see our future in Baugh, DJ!, Wilson, our defense are making some frankly AMAZING open field tackles. I can’t remember our D looking so good since I looked down in the shower lately.

    SICK OF IT! Can you imagine after the last couple performances by the D reading DC and they do, and seeing some computer warrior saying “the weakness of our defense”, after scoarching performances let alone if they actually did.

    Either be a fan or say nothing when it ain’t deserved. I don’t even know when this was poster and don’t care anyway. Fans should be supporting our evolving players. That’s how it works. Especially with things like all our guys busting out and thinking “wonder what ET thinks?” We are in a great trajectory. Help us by doing our part as fans to PROTECT, SUPPORT and be thankful that these boys do what they do for us and them.


    Sorry for the random rant. Not even to whomever I quoted but just sick of it. We are right where I want to be. Better.
     
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  2. gators1994

    gators1994 Senior

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    Offensive line has played significantly better in past several weeks. They are going to need their best effort against UGA. That Mykell Williams guy is a monster.
     
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  3. gators1994

    gators1994 Senior

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    Funny, I seem to remember graduating from there and rooting for them the past 40 years. Maybe it’s all just a hallucination. I was wrong about the rushing yards admittedly but I didn’t predict that we would be up by so much early and force Kentucky to pass - obviously their weak point. They still had about 150 yards rushing. Our defensive line still has something to prove. If someone doesn’t say everything is roses all the time it doesn’t mean they’re not a gator.
     
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  4. 2oldgator

    2oldgator GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s apparent to me our team is getting better, getting it together. I can’t see how any Gator fan can put a negative spin on our performance against Kentucky: Napier detractor or not.
    Kentucky is a ball control team and yes we did take them out of their comfort zone late in the game. Uh, I think that is what our coaching staff was probably shooting for.
    But in the meantime we were dominating their much acclaimed defense like nobody else has this season.
    We are getting better.
    Napier needs to get better, no, learn how to run a two minute offense and when to use it. Little better clock management and learn that you do not take your foot off the gas pedal in the SEC. I think he will.
    If we can hold this incredibly talented young team together we are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the very near future.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2024
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  5. gatorin1963

    gatorin1963 Junior

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    I am the poster. I have been a Gator fan for 61 years, starting when I was a freshman in 1963. I was at the game when the ‘Dawgs beat us 51-0 in the old Gator Bowl. I was at the national championship game when we crushed the Bucknuts.
    I was a freshman in 1963, joined the Air Force in 1967 and returned from overseas to go to law school in 1971. Our daughter got her masters degree from UF.
    At no time have I ever been anything but a loyal Gator fan. My question was not intended to be negative. It was an honest question asked to stimulate discussion.

    As I have said for the past 61 years and at a multitude of games, GO GATORS!!
     
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  6. awells05

    awells05 Sophomore

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    I can get on board with the the whole the team is improving and if you are going to attribute all the bad things to Billy you have to also give him credit where credit is due. I agree this team has gotten better. I also think we have played two good teams in back to back weeks and have proven we can compete.

    However, at this point in my opinion I have not seen improvement in Billy. He continues to "evaluate" everyone but himself. He consistently makes bad decisions around time management. He also consistently shows the inability to correct basic fundamental mistakes, 12 men on the field yet again for a missed opportunity. The University of Florida should not be a place where you learn on the job how to be a Head Football Coach. I do not see improvement in Billy as a Head Football Coach and that is my concern with him moving forward as the Head Ball Coach at UF.

    In my opinion our great coaches added value to our program. Spurrier and Urban were worth 7-14 points a game because of their coaching. I actually believe Billy costs us points, and in the UT game may have cost us as many as 17 points. These kids deserve better than that. They are playing their butts off and Gator fans should be proud of our kids and cheering for them. I just struggle cheering for a coach that seems to refuse to self evaluate. Especially one who discusses evaluation ad nauseum.
     
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  7. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    We will be about 30% dogs on average vs the 4 good teams and 85-90% fav vs FSU.

    From a baseline we should win 2 games. Out of the 4 tough games there is about a 80% chance we win at least 1.
     
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  8. grant1

    grant1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Some (a lot of) people can't handle honest opinions/discussion. I was there about 20 years after you, and yet, I've been accused of being a Dawg fan here. The only time I root for the leghumpers is when they paly f$u.

    In another thread, someone said I was being a "prick" to the local Kentucky fan since I commented on where the UK program should be going and the Cat fan agreed with me in 2 subsequent posts. The Cat fan agreed with me but one of our own calls me a prick.
     
  9. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I could be wrong, but I think we get a small bump in odds against Georgia because it’s such a long standing rivalry. So how do our odds look going into the LSU game if we assume Georgia and Texas beat us by >7 points each? And then LSU will be playing for keeps because at that point they may be 5-0 in SEC play, with 4-1 almost being a certainty. But how do odds look against LSU if we’re coming off of two >7 point losses and LSU has just beaten TAMU and Bama? Ole Miss is our opportunity, as they’re the only team that has played below expectations, but they get the benefit of a bye week before our game. We’ll see what happens. Will be fun to watch either way.
     
  10. gators1994

    gators1994 Senior

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    Did Billy really call a better game against Kentucky or were those plays there all along but we previously refused to throw downfield? God bless graham Mertz but I think he was so afraid to throw a pick that he took the dump off way too many times. It’s so nice to see DJ push it downfield. Our whole offense is different and so much harder to defend. Those passes to badger were things of beauty.
     
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  11. DieAGator

    DieAGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Teams could have to defend the longer routes and that might open the field. When we are only throwing sideways or ten yards, the field to defend is tiny. I agree Mertz was hesitant and often inaccurate if trying to throw long.
     
  12. 2oldgator

    2oldgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Fair enough. I actually share some of your angst about CBN, but I think he has had a lot to deal with from day one at possibly the most tumultuous time in college football. A few will disagree but Mullen left a stinking mess.
    He’s brought in some amazing talent and has managed to keep improving the roster and not with thugs.
    After the A&M game I was ready to give up on CBN but he seems to be trying to change a few things, putting in an I formation With Mad Jack at fullback on the goal line for instance.
    I’m going defer judgment and pull for our coach to get better. I just don’t know if killer instinct can be acquired or you have to be born with it. We will see. Meantime, Go Gators!
     
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  13. awells05

    awells05 Sophomore

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    I will again give credit where credit is due, I do believe he has a good eye for talent. I also believe the roster was quite poor when he arrived. As I mentioned previously my complaint is not with the players. I actually am quite pleased with our players. We are improving and that only comes from coaching. Again, that is a plus in the Billy department.

    My entire negativity comes from his inability to put our players in position to be successful. He consistently hurts the team with ill timed decisions, poor clock management, and dreadful play-calling. He reminds me a lot of The Zooker in that kids seem to really like him, he was really able to identify good players, but gosh darnit couldnt get out of his own way. Everyone wanted Billy to be the guy, everyone likes Billy the human, but good lord man hire an OC and get out of the damn way.
     
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  14. gatorwalrus

    gatorwalrus GC Hall of Fame

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    The odds of at least (what I should have typed) 1 win out of the series of 4 independent games with a 15% win probability (middle of my range) is just 1 minus the odds of losing them all. 1-.85^4=47.8%.
     
  15. Matthanuf06

    Matthanuf06 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep. We are at about 20% for UGA and Texas. Closer to 30% for Ole Miss. and 35-40% for LSU. It wouldn’t be shocking to lose them all but we should win 1.

    If we do go 0-7 vs our ranked slate the odds of that happening should have been incredibly low…like 3-5%. That would be a huge underperformance.
     
  16. g8orbill

    g8orbill Old Gator Moderator Premium Member VIP Member

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    I have already gone on record that we beat LSWhoo, Ole Piss, and half assed u
     
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  17. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    That would be a hell of a turnaround if it happens.
    I would note that both LSU and Ole Miss have better qbs than we've seen except for maybe cam ward. Hopefully Marshall is back by then.
     
  18. dave_the_thinker

    dave_the_thinker VIP Member

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    Well grant, you weren't treating the Cat Fan humanely.

    Bob Barker says, always have your Cat Fans spayed or neutered.
     
  19. traubgator

    traubgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Keep in mind last season, we were 5-2 going into the final stretch with little easier schedule -- and we went 0-5.
    our schedule this year is basically our schedule next season also - I would say every team on our schedule next year will be improved but Miami.

    Its going to be brutal physically the next 2 games -- kids are gonna go down, and can we even be healthy to play LSU.
     
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  20. 95Gator

    95Gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Noooooo I never said we should say roses are always red. There is a time to worry and express it. Right now our offense is on a trend and it’s heavily up, therefore pick one of the many other things to complain about that are real. Like I said players do read these boards and frankly since Tenn and now Kentucky that horrible defense that you called “still trash” or something are winning games for us, tackling very well against good teams and Saturday scoring points and forcing turnovers, TGL, sacks, and two picks against a QB who came in with none, single player open field slams and good play callings and not to mention some of those guys happen to be freshman and I don’t care if you’re 20 or 85 you’ll get my respect if you served but not as a Gator fan dogging on our defense when they are showing more than just improvement and don’t forget a break off single play can skew the numbers. If not for our D last week we either loser or win by a little.

    I stand my ground, won’t be turned around. ;)