How Does Billy Save His Job?

I think if he has a losing year he will be gone. Unfortunately this decision is likely going to push the program back another several years. Recruiting will suffer (it already is). I sure wanted Billy to be the right hire but it’s getting very hard to believe this anymore .

 

Rinse, Repeat

 

My point is that you’re already grasping for a questionable replacement before we’ve even seen how we play against A&M. A mediocre season may be a better alternative than knee-jerk firing our 4th coach in 10 years and bringing in an unproven 5th. To me it all depends upon how the next 3 games play out. Napier may get better. He may bomb all 3. But jumping on yet another desperation hire is a nonstarter to me. Now, if a Gundy or even a Kiffin steps up and applies for the job that’s a different situation and maybe we do jump on it.

 

He has one or two losses of leeway in the next 4 games. A double digit loss looking poorly coached at home this weekend, in my opinion, will seal the deal. You can't lose your first two games at home on top of a 5 game losing streak (not counting Samford as a legit competitor) to end last year and expect to be given more time. Im quite sure the discussions for moving on have been happening since the third quarter of the Miami game.

 

He has a checkered record, but some of that came down to fit as well. He was a huge upgrade over the struggles of Fulmer at his end of career, and that Kiffen team had much less talent than Tennessee teams had prior and some later. Overall 11-2 with Ole Miss is impressive.

 

Yeah, I agree 100% on this. Napier is not done, done yet. But he is now coaching for his life every week. Every week. There are some he has to win, no matter what, there are some he needs to be competitive for four quarters, and there are some he just needs to not embarrass the school further. I would say Miami was in the second category, and I would probably have put aTm in the second category as well before the Miami loss. Now I think aTm might be a first category game. Napier, even if he no longer has our collective faith, certainly deserves our support to win this Saturday and preserve his position a bit longer.

 

I’m most interested in how much he’s grown since he took the humbling position at FAU. I would say the answer to that is quite a bit. And for those who have known me a long time, that’s quite a staggering admission from me. I have been one of Kiffin’s biggest mockers since 2009 and enjoyed every single one of his humbling experiences.

 

I don't think we'll fire him until the end of the season, regardless of what happens. So I don't think any particular game is a must win in an absolute sense. However it will be almost impossible that he'll be able to pull out a winning season if we don't win this weekend, so I'm picking up what you're laying down....

The writing is on the wall... It's in pencil, but it's there...

 

He’s looked good at ol miss so far no doubt. Can he be better this year than last. We know he still doesn’t have the talent and depth that some do. It says a lot if he can hold his own in the really big games.

 

And Saban had his pick for staff. He didn’t get up and comers, he got the best money could buy. Kiffen, sarkasian, Kirby, that other dude that was Tennessee coach. He won titles and still upgraded his oc the next year to keep on top.

 

It’s a mess when you can’t hire to after signing day and the portal. Maybe they should move the portal date back some. Classes start though so like I say, it’s a mess.

 

Yes, yes. But, if he wins 6 games as some are suggesting is necessary to remain, then winning that many with the schedule remaining, he will have accomplished a miracle. Play Mertz, and run his usual pedestrian offense, and he will lose. And his firing will be his reward for his stubbornness; a totally self inflicted indictment of his football coaching prowess, a consequence of his ego and lack of self awareness of his limitations. Or he gives JD the starting job, opens up the offense and gives play calling duties to someone else and he has a chance. Scoring points will make the D better. Texas AM maybe the perfect opponent at this moment, perceived as superior to FL but perhaps not as good as advertised. A perfect opportunity for JD to excel against a more talented opponent than last week. Or he could be overwhelmed as a freshman. We shall see. And I am conflicted. I don't think BN is the guy and should already be gone but JD offered a glimmer of hope. And I don't want to go through another season of gloom waiting for next year. Let JD loose.

 

I’m over Napier but waiting until you have a good replacement is wise.

 

the reality is even if we some how beat A&M, Miss State and Kentucky -- that's 3 sec wins.
I don't see us getting a 4th SEC win. I think it will take a 4th sec win to retain his job along with beating FSU at the end of the season.
As we know the nov schedule might be the most difficult 4 game stretch in the history of football.

 

Yep, six wins going to be tough. 7 and we beat a pretty good team.

 

Agree with a lot of that. I don’t think waiting until the end of the season is very practical, though, if the ultimate decision is to go in another direction. We need as big a jump on a new coach as we can get. Several schools are going to be vying for Kiffin, Gundy et al. Personally, the way I would do it is wait until Napier clinches a losing season, which I would say would be three losses before the Georgia game, and he already has one. Tennessee you can probably pencil into the loss category, so, yeah, every game other than Tennessee before Georgia is a must-win for him to stay until 2025.

 

I totally agree in principle. If things do seem to be stabilizing and the team doesn't go off a cliff before the trip to Jax, and we can beat FSU, staying the course might be the best thing if for no other reason than avoiding another "ground up" rebuild - if at all possible. Unfortunately, at this moment, the chances of that happening appear to be tenuous at best. I also strongly agree that the next hire, should it come sooner than expected, we go for the best HC big money can lure to Gainesville. No more desperation or bargain basement hires for me, I'm done with failed experiments and long shot hires. Even Spurrier had an ACC championship and a ground-breaking O on his resume before being brought home to work his magic.
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Technically, we wouldn't clinch a losing season until the 7th loss. I really don't think we'll fire him until the end of the season even if it's a forgone conclusion before then. That being said, if it is a forgone conclusion, we better be quietly searching for alternatives instead of waiting until the deal is sealed.

No one knows what is going to happen next...

 

Understanding that technically you are correct, if we lose three or more out of our first seven games, then we are astronomically unlikely to win more than one out of our last five. I’m only saying that if it looks inevitable AND we think we have a shot at Kiffin, then making that call as soon as possible is the way to go. This game will tell us much about how the rest of the season and Napier’s future will play out.

 

You need to get out more. I think you're lost again. .