A followup article on the British perspective on the Uighur situation. Apparently, Bill Clinton's Kumbaya Policies were not only totally wrong with regard to NAFTA, they were incredibly naive with regard to China. He believed that other countries would become more westernized as they matured and increased their wealth. You just can't trust a communist government. Paranoia, propaganda, greed and violence are part of their DNA, because that is how you gain power and keep it in a backwards country. Becoming wealthier only magnifies those attributes, and the wealth does not lead to an increase in power among the masses to demand democracy. China's government could only allow the people to modernize within its ability to control the population. Maybe Clinton expected a "Gorbachev moment" to happen in China, and the country to turn itself over to democracy to save it from economic ruin. China was dirt poor--they were used to economic ruin: they didn't have a reason to call it ruin, because that was "normal" for them. You have to go several decades with a communist country rising to become a global superpower, and then have the economy fall apart due to mismanagement, before they consider a radical change to their system of government. Hong Kong is at that point of extreme frustration, but only because they enjoyed a western style of life under British control. West 'got it wrong on China', warns MI6 boss
China is thinking about taking hostages if the U.S. takes legal action against their "scholar / technology connoisseurs". This should help with their tourism and overseas business contracts. As long as I can stay at a nice hotel with good internet access in a nice part of town, and make overtime from my company as a hostage, I wouldn't mind a little "detention", I suppose. My company probably won't send me, however. China warns U.S. it may detain Americans over prosecutions: WSJ
Things are about to heat up with China's unfriendly fishing fleet. The U.S. is getting ready to send the Coast Guard to the western Pacific to enforce good behavior for the Chinese. I'm not sure how this is going to work out. I didn't know that the Coast Guard was prepared to work so far from U.S. shores. Also, are they legally allowed to enforce international maritime law? Things could get crazy real quick if a group of over-excited Chinese fishermen with AK-47's decides to take on a Coast Guard cutter and it's 50-cal machine gun. I suppose there will be U.S. Navy vessels nearby, in case the Chinese Navy decides to sink the cutter. US Coast Guard to tackle China 'illegal' fishing in Pacific
One opinion on China's preference for a U.S. presidential candidate. While Obama was extremely weak on China's expansionist policies, he was also very pro-China as far as trade and willingness to overlook technology theft. That doesn't necessarily mean that Biden will have the same policies and cowardly tendencies as Obama. China hasn't minded Trump being president too much, because Trump constantly tweets everything on his simple mind and he is very easy to read, but Trump has had a negative impact on China's economy. Why Beijing Hopes for a Biden Win
Those fishing fleets from China are a menace to maritime ecology around the world, hope the CG can stop them. With that said, how would they enforce it? Would they sink the boats that won't obey? That would open a whole can of worms. There are a lot of countries and organizations who take exception to Japanese whaling fleets as well, for example, so can they be more aggressive? China also has one of the largest and most advanced CG fleets as well, what if they're sent as escorts? Our navy can take on the Chinese navy no problem, especially in the open seas, but our CG I'm not so sure. I don't think China cares that much one way or another. Their plans are typically longer than a presidential term, so they're not gonna be predicated on something that could swing wildly every 4 years. Also, China's GDP growth rate has been gradually decreasing for 10 years now, as they should when they become a middle-income country. There's no clear evidence that Trump's actions have accelerated that trend.
I know the Coast Guard cutters have 50-caliber machine guns on board. I imagine they have some experience dealing with armed drug smugglers. I think the Japanese whale hunting is done legally under an exception that allows for scientific harvesting, even though it is fairly ridiculous. China is violating international law with the way they conduct fishing operations (refrigerated transports accompanying fishing vessels, etc.). Worse is the Chinese practice of catching sharks, cutting off the fins, and dumping the rest of the shark overboard to die. There isn't much ambiguity with the way China is flouting the law. There are some who say that China is cooking their books and their economy is doing much worse than they've been willing to admit. With a Communist country, it is hard to believe what they say. There are two reasons for China to fabricate their numbers: to not let the U.S. know that the tariffs are working (if they are in fact working); and to not have the Chinese citizens lose faith in the Party.
You can't cook the book like that these days. Almost all major MNCs have operations all over China, so if the economy isn't doing well, they'd know and we'd all know.
If the economy was terrible, then yes, they would know. But not necessarily if the economy was shrinking by a few percent versus expanding by a few percent (which is still a big deal). U.S. corporations have some understanding of their limited field of expertise in their specific location(s), but I doubt if any have the big picture of the entire Chinese economy. And even if they did know, they would certainly not broadcast the failures of the Chinese economy internationally if they wanted to stay in China. The chances are very high that the Chinese gov't would punish both the individual and the company for embarrassing them. All you and I would get are private rumors. Things do not work the same in China as they do in the U.S. It is especially difficult to know about the economy because the provinces spend a lot of borrowed money for new buildings, industrial parks, and other capital projects. No one knows exactly how much money each province is borrowing or how much debt they are in.
More from the China files: Chinese soldiers are getting "biologically enhanced" to make them "super soldiers". China has done human testing to create biologically enhanced super soldiers, says top U.S. official
China looks for weaknesses in an individual president to identify times for bold actions that the current president will not oppose. Their long-term strategy remains the same, but they need to take action at some point, and know how a U.S. president will react to those actions. The Nine Dashes Line in the South China Sea is a perfect example. They didn't start with a one-dash line and expand by one dash (and a million square miles) every year. They jumped in with both feet with their Nine-Dashes Line when they perceived that we had a weak president (Obama) with a fear of using the military to deal with anything, and who valued getting along much more than fighting for principles. Once they had established their dominance of the area, it is unlikely that a future U.S. president would take action on the Nine Dashes Line. They did not do anything while GWB was president, because he was likely perceived as being willing to throw his military into a conflict with a foreign nation. The air bases on the manufactured islands (which China guaranteed would not be militarized) might have been destroyed, forcing a major retreat in their policies.
Our economy shrank 2.5% in 2009, do you think there's a single MNC who did not feel it? There's absolutely no way, and I do mean that very, very categorically, that none of the MNCs is aware of what a few percent change in China's economy. Also, most of these are publicly traded companies, and their China operations often make up a large portion of their revenues (e.g. Apple, GM, Qualcomm, etc.). They cannot hide their books in China. Whether China's growth is sustainable is a whole other matter, but the fact is that China's economy has recovered and will be the only major economy to demonstrate growth for 2020. That's reasonable, though my opinion is that China pushed the nine-dashed lines because they believe that they've arrived after the 2008 financial crisis rather than who's the POTUS. The nine-dashed line, or variations of it, has also been the official stance for China since before the Communists took over, so it's not something they just thought of during the Obama years. I think your view is too American-centric and neglect the changes that have occurred over the years in China. With that said, I see the merits of your point of view and I do consider it a possible explanation.
I've spent more time in China than any other foreign country. Their economy is fairly regional. China is almost a collection of smaller countries with different things going on in different areas. In some areas, it is like stepping out of a cab in the 1950's or 1960's, with very little money being spent on anything. In other areas, it is like being in the 2030's, with bizarre or ultra-modern buildings going up everywhere. If I was in a hot zone (usually around a new industrial district) I would get as high as I could in the hotel and see how many construction cranes I could count (I think 24 was the highest, with only 120 degrees of view, in a suburb of Ningbo). What I would say is that American companies are aware of their own products' sales and revenues in China, but not the greater picture of the overall economy. If it's Apple or some other major corporation, they may be able to infer certain things about the consumer economy, but not understand the overall economy. The industrial economy is also very big, as is infrastructure. Both of those are either funded by the national government, or based on loans from the national gov't to the provinces. Many of the largest Chinese companies are partly gov't-owned, adding another wrinkle. Another issue with analyzing the consumer economy: the Chinese people are easily spooked. They are fed a constant stream of propaganda from the government (the latest is the idea that war with Taiwan is imminent). They also get sporadic reports on the internet of horrific things done by Chinese manufacturers (like putting melamine into sub-standard baby formula to help it pass one of the tests). This drives sectors of the economy into very sudden extremes. There is almost no effective gov't regulation of things like product quality in China.
An interesting article on how the new Chinese "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy is going over in the West. What started as a trade war under Trump has evolved into a clash of political ideologies as the West has started to realize that China is focused on world domination. Australia and Canada are the first two western countries to stand up to China. China had a chance to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies, but chose to use the same bullying tactics with western countries that it routinely uses with smaller Asian countries, with disastrous results. One positive from Trump's side is that he was the first to stand up to China. He would have done better to get allies to go along with the U.S., but that isn't his strong suit. The allies are starting to come around. The better news: it appears likely that Biden will continue the general direction of Trump's policies with China, and not cave to China's world domination program like Obama did. While you weren't looking, everything with China went off the rails
China authorizes its Coast Guard to open fire on foreign vessels, if they are in the mood to do so. Things are about to heat up around the Nine Dashes Line. China authorises coast guard to fire on foreign vessels if needed
I have read Japan is starting to rebuild its military might and it makes me wonder if China really wants to stir up things with them.
China is now routinely sending large groups of military aircraft to Taiwanese airspace. It is not clear if they are trying to threaten Taiwan or start a war with Taiwan, or just let Biden know who is the boss in the Asia-Pacific region. Yesterday was 12 aircraft, including eight bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Today was 12 fighter jets, one recon, and two anti-submarine aircraft. Chinese fighter jets enter Taiwan air space for second day as tensions rise days into Biden term
The Philippines reacts to China's new law authorizing their Coast Guard to use deadly force to enforce its claims on the South China Sea: Philippines protests new China law as `verbal threat of war’ Basically, China has decided that it gets to make the rules in Asia, and will destroy any other country's construction on islands that it claims, while continuing to build illegal military bases on reefs that it has illegally built into islands. Looks like Biden is being tested.
China threatens Taiwan with war if they declare independence. China sharpens language, warns Taiwan that independence 'means war' China has been separated from China at least since 1905, when Japan invaded Taiwan. In fact, the communist gov't in China did not take over until 1911, so the communists in China have never been in control of Taiwan. At some point, Chinese claims on Taiwan should be considered ancient history. Test #2.
Here is some strange news about the Chinese military: one in five members of submarine crews has mental problems. My opinion is that it stems from the stress of not being certain that the sub will not have an accident at sea, much less fail in combat. China is relatively new to operating modern submarines. It probably also is not helping that China is amping up their rhetoric about defending its "rights" to ownership of the South China Sea, and claims that war with Taiwan is imminent. If the sailors believe this, and know that Chinese submarines are probably inferior to American subs, it could feel like every mission could be their last. Probably not a good feeling in a tin can underwater. Chinese sailors are suffering from serious psychological disorders aboard South China Sea submarines, a recent study found
Minor historic correction. The current Communist government actually didn't take over until 1949. 1911 marked the end of the China's last imperial dynasty. The 1911 Revolution replaced the Imperial government with a republic. The Communists under Mao defeated the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. Chiang retreated to Taiwan after his Nationalist army was defeated on the mainland. We (the US) continued to recognize the Nationalist government in Taiwan as the legitimate government of China until 1978 when the US under Jimmy Carter formally recognized the reality that the real government of China was the Communist government of the PRC. By the way I do think that we should continue to support the free government of Taiwan. I also think an invasion of Taiwan by China is very unlikely given the price that the Chinese would have to pay for victory.
