How China's Military Views the United States

Not persuasive

 

The real problem. I am setting aside Taiwan for the moment because it is Chinese under international law. Parenthetically, if China had not subjugated HK and violated the “One Nation, Two Systems” pledge, they likely would have been able to integrate Taiwan peacefully. But autocrats have to be themselves

But here is the most intense source of friction that unites the region in defensive alliances with the US. Ironically, if the CCP were not so obviously totalitarian, they would likely naturally dominate the region as regional hegemon. But the CCP will not accept simple outsized domination with autonomy for other nations. So other nations feel they must act defensively to preserve even minimal sovereignty, especially over their waters and the right to transit and make common usage of international waters



He added that “China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and the adjacent waters.”

Li, who became China’s defense minister in March, declined Austin’s invitation to talk on the sidelines of the conference, though the two did shake hands before sitting down at opposite sides of the same table together as the forum opened Friday.



US defense secretary says Washington won’t stand for ‘coercion and bullying’ from China
US defense secretary says Washington won’t stand for ‘coercion and bullying’ from China - Tampa Bay Times

For more great content like this subscribe to the Tampa Bay Times app here:

 

Right, they're transitioning from making the type of cars they're good at making, to something the Chinese are good at making. Those cars will also be powered increasingly by renewables, another market the Chinese is dominating. Not a great prospect for them.

Yes, China is having an youth unemployment problem, your point? Even with the large youth unemployment and the huge property slump they're still growing at 5.5%. That should give you an idea of the resilience of their economy.

German chemical plants are very advanced, best in the world in many regards. You're in the industry, so why don't you take a look at how they've been doing since the Ukraine war and then get back at me.

 

The key here is unite in an alliance with the US. Without the US that whole region becomes China's pond. We're the lynchpin in stopping China's advances, that's why I've been advocating on focusing on strengthening ourselves and stop wasting ours and our allies' resources everywhere else in the world but in East Asia. We got sidetracked for 20 years in the Middle East, and just as soon as we extricated ourselves from there we got sucked into a conflict in Eastern Europe. All the while the Chinese economy has grown many fold and they've completely transformed their military on the back of their newfound economic and industrial strength.

This is gonna keep happen if we continue to get distracted while facing the single greatest adversary since the Civil War, especially when many of our citizens are consumed by the Russian menace while minimizing the Chinese threat.

 

The 5.5% is the consensus estimates from the likes of Goldman Sachs.

For chemicals, you do realize that Germany spent a whopping $23 BILLION last year to subsidize their industries over energy costs, right? Without that many would've closed shop already. I'm sure you know how big of a part energy is to a chemical business's running expenses, and I'm sure you know quite well how much more LNG costs compared to pipelined gas. Do you really think that won't have an extremely detrimental impact on Germany's chemical businesses? German industries know it quite well, and they've scaled down operations so much that natural gas is actually cheap now, suggesting that they probably overcompensated.

As for EVs, it won't take long. You'll see. The Chinese EV companies are hesitant to enter the American market for political reasons, I'm sure you already know that. Just look at the markets where they have entered, the Germans are not doing well. Chinese EVs have just started entering Europe, mostly just this year. Also, don't forget that Tesla makes a lot of EVs in China, and they're exporting it everywhere. So sit back and watch what happens over the next couple of years. Like I said, it won't take long.

Chinese EVs outsold German ones by 11 to 1 in Australia in 2022:
Australia's EV market by brand, region and buyer type

It's getting worse in Australia this year, but now increasingly with Chinese brands and not just Teslas anymore. The top 2 models remain Teslas, but the next 4 are Chinese. Your beloved BMW i4? Keep scrolling lol. A whopping 13 units sold in Q1!:

Australia's best-selling electric cars so far in 2023

Two Chinese brands are in the top 3 of the Israeli market. The other one of the top 3 is Model Y, probably made in China.
10% of new cars sold in Israel in 2022 were EVs.

And of course, there's the Chinese market. Volkswagen was (and I believe still is) the #1 selling ICE brand in China if not the #1 selling car brand overall, but it's not even in the top 10 for EVs. Elon Musk is doubling down in China which will contribute a lot to Chinese EV exports as well.

I suggest you check out some reviews on YouTube. There's a reason China has overtaken Japan as the #1 car exporter, and that's with the world's largest market counting as domestic, and having little presence in the world's second largest market. The tsunami of made-in-China EVs is just getting started.

 

But you're quick to believe China's youth unemployment numbers, I wonder where that came from? Is this a "data I like is true, data I don't is false" kind of situation? 5.5% is a pretty reasonable number, considering the COVID lockdowns the middle of last year and then the massive outbreak when they stopped the lockdowns at the end of the year.

 

China Places Country Dangerously Close To US Warship

 

Got it, so bad news is true, good news is false. You see how that can get you a biased view, right?

The debt crisis is of course impacting China, that's why they've been stringent with stimulus while the rest of the world hands out cash like it's going out of fashion. If China pumped a couple trillion dollars into their economy like we did their GDP would be growing a lot faster, but they'd also be dealing with inflation like we are as well.

As for how can the Chinese economy be sustained with a decrease in exports to the US? Take a look at this graph:

China's exports shifting from West to Global South - Asia Times

 

What makes you so sure that China is looking for a battle on the high seas when they can simply destroy US carriers with stand-off weapons ? Why do you think the US carrier group watched from the safety of the Philippines while China was simulating a takeover of Taiwan ?

 

Two independent numbers on chinas growth.

“China’s authoritarian leader Xi Jinping was sworn in for another five-year term last week. Martinez’s model suggests Beijing may have overstated GDP growth by a third over the past two decades, making its economy far smaller than claimed.

A report published by the Brookings Institution in 2019 suggested that China had been overstating its economic growth by about 2% every year, making its economy 12% smaller than official figures then claimed.”

Satellites Shed Light on Dictators' Lies About Economic Growth.

As far as the youth unemployment, basic logic says that if they are making the numbers look better on the overall economy, the youth unemployment could very well be worse than reported. As mentioned, if it wasn’t a serious problem they wouldn’t be trying to get kids to move to the country, they clearly have an issue there.