How China's Military Views the United States

Major and possible dangerous change in US doctrine. President says US would affirmatively defend Taiwan

 

Also, I view you personally as inferior to me. Although that’s obviously true, you may like to challenge that. Fine by me, since I’ll win. Unless of course, I don’t.

 

I think it'll happen during Xi's rule. I suspect that his insistence for becoming the president for life is more than just a power grab, I suspect that he's looking to make history and he knows it'll take longer than 2 terms. I can't think of anything that'll more surely give him a place in Chinese history than taking Taiwan.

From shortly after he took over in 2012, he said that that the Taiwan issue cannot stay unresolved forever (I'm paraphrasing). I thought then that it was a change in rhetoric compared to previous administrations, and that it was pretty alarming. His actions since then have IMO continued to lay the groundwork for an invasion, and I can see him launching it within the next 5 years. Recently I believe China said that visits by high-level politicians from the US to Taiwan would be considered crossing a redline, I think that was in reference to talks of Pelosi possibly visiting. That to me is moving the redline and further laying the groundworks for a pretext for an invasion.

As for whether China has the capability to invade Taiwan, let's be real here, none of us really knows. The best examples we have are from 70+ years ago. There hasn't even been a major naval war since then let alone a contested amphibious invasion. IMO, their limitations will be tactics and experience, but not materials. It's silly to think China doesn't have enough ships to invade Taiwan, they're the #1 ship-building nation in the world. They don't need a large number of LSTs/LHDs/LHAs etc. like the Wasp or America class to sail <200 miles to drop off troops across the strait. Those types of ships are meant to sail with CBGs and land troops on far distant shores. They have a humongous fleet of civilian Ro/Ro ships within their STUFT fleet that can be used in a cross-strait invasion, and they've been exercising with them lately.

Personally, I don't believe Biden said what he said unintentionally. I think our government is aware of Xi's intentions, and wants to step up the rhetoric in a still deniable way to deter him from acting on it. I just hope the world isn't so fatigued with Russia and the turmoil that accompanied it to deal with China when it happens. Let's not forget that Nazi Germany's rise was in large part due to war fatigue from WWI.

 

I think you have an up-to-the-minute example. Turns out that poduck versus a superpower isn’t the slam dunk it appears.

 

The logistical challenges of decoupling


It’s been three years since U.S. officials sounded the alarm: Citing national security threats, the White House, Congress and federal agencies began ordering that certain Chinese-made equipment had to be ripped out from telecommunications and security networks.

But delays, deferrals and a serious funding shortfall have left that threat largely unaddressed, and Chinese technology remains in place throughout America — including in some surprising places. More than 100 telecom providers are still connecting mobile phone calls for hundreds of thousands of customers with gear from Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. Chinese-made equipment is also still serving Department of Defense facilities, the corporate jets of some of the largest U.S. companies and the biggest commercial airlines.

“It’s striking that it’s taking people so long to wake up to this reality,” says Isaac Stone Fish, founder and chief executive officer of Strategy Risks, a New Yorkbased consulting firm that helps companies mitigate their exposure to China. “As U.S.-China tensions continue to worsen, and growing numbers of people in the U.S. national security establishment view China as an adversary and likely future combatant in a hot war, certain types of Chinese technology pose clear and present national security threats.”

China tech’s grip persists in US long after orders to rip it - Tampa Bay Times

 

Saw that. Two think making the Chinese reckless. First is just always looking for opportunities to defend “their” seas of the 9 Dash line that no one else recognizes as sovereign waters. Plus the Aussies are really a target commercially. But in this case they may have had something specific they were hiding, though they are usually pretty open about what they do there.

 

I was talking more economic like this Australia Shows the World What Decoupling From China Looks Like

Militarily, Australia is already part of the Quad defensive alliance
U.S., Japan, Australia, India begin joint naval drill amid China rise

 

Why does any company do anything? It's always the same answer, money. ASML made over $2 billion in China last year, which could've been a lot more had the US not forbid them from selling their most advanced machines to China. Perhaps China will be closer than they would've been otherwise by stealing in 10, 20 years, but do you think the current ASML execs will be punished for it? They would've already made many millions by working with China now and will probably be chilling on a private island in the Mediterranean by then.

Also, stealing high tech is not easy, you can give China all the blueprints for ASML lithography machines and all the software codes and they won't be able to catch up in 20 years. High tech is constantly evolving, so if you only know how something is designed but you don't know why it's designed that way, you won't be able to effectively build on it to maintain your position. After the USSR dissolved, they sold some of their best fighter jets (e.g. Su-27 series) including ToT to China. A top Russian aerospace engineer was asked if he's concerned about China copying Russian technology, he scoffed and said "what's technology? I'm technology." China did spend decades absorbing the tech and ended up making copies of those Russian jets, even making some incremental improvements on them, but it was an evolutionary dead end. While Russia built on the Su-27 series and built their next gen jet, the Su-57, based on it, neither of China's 5th gen fighter jets was based on it.

What's more, even if China knows how ASML's lithography machines are built, how will they get lenses from Carl Zeiss? How will they get lasers from Cymer? How will they get EDA tools from Synosys or Cadence? Every nut and bolt needs to be developed, and they're all constantly evolving, you can't steal the secrets to all of them at all times. Stealing tech can only go so far, to compete with the cutting edge, you need to develop them yourself. This is why these hard tech companies are the real treasures, not the likes of FB, Amazon, Netflix, Uber, etc. which are easily emulated with tech and business models that are easily copied.

 

China basing in Thailand agreement. More reason to implement the “updated” non TPP, TPP

China secretly building naval facility in Cambodia - Tampa Bay Times

 

I want to stop it is possible, but let’s not imagine emerging power trade secret theft is some new development exhibiting unique Sino-deviousness.


Long before the United States began accusing other countries of stealing ideas, the U.S. government encouraged intellectual piracy to catch up with England’s technological advances. According to historian Doron Ben-Atar, in his book, Trade Secrets, “the United States emerged as the world's industrial leader by illicitly appropriating mechanical and scientific innovations from Europe.”

Among those sniffing out innovations across the Atlantic was Harvard graduate and Boston merchant, Francis Cabot Lowell. As the War of 1812 raged on, Lowell set sail from Great Britain in possession of the enemy’s most precious commercial secret. He carried with him pirated plans for Edmund Cartwright’s power loom, which had made Great Britain the world’s leading industrial power.


The Spies Who Launched America’s Industrial Revolution

 

Eh, don't fall for the propaganda, it's not an unusual practice:

U.S. Warplanes Chase off Russian Jets in Dangerous Syria Standoff

"The F-22s conducted multiple maneuvers to persuade the Su-25s to depart our de-conflicted airspace, including the release of chaff and flares in close proximity to the Russian aircraft and placing multiple calls on the emergency channel to convey to the Russian pilots that they needed to depart the area," Pickart added.

Right, no point in looking at these things through a moral-ethical. Countries have to do whatever that's needed to be done to get an edge over their competitors. We need to stop the IP stealing by China not because what they're doing is unethical, but because it gives us an edge.

 

They might learn that lockdowns that threaten starvation of their populace has a negative effect on their economy

 

China launches high-tech aircraft carrier in naval milestone