Helene headed to Florida's Gulf Coast

More detail on the surge predictions (new post)...
Helene intensifies en route to an expected major landfall in Florida » Yale Climate Connections

The article goes on to say the highest surge recorded in Tampa is around 4', and this is expected to eclipse that level.

 

The doomsday porn phase of this storm has begun. 918 would be a Cat 5 likely, the others a strong cat 4.

 

Good stuff. I'm a half a mile inland of old Tampa Bay but at a 13 ft elevation.

 

Just reading that they already have measured gust of 38 and 47 mph at the mouth of Tampa Bay

 

Cat 4 peak now.

this is always what I read because it gives the NHCs perspective on how they view it.

Hurricane Helene Forecast Discussion

 

Indeed. Love that place but we haven't been in probably 8 years

 

if they are built right, not much to worry about. how old is the place, ie built to current FBC? at what elevation? can't stop a tornado or a surge, the rest can be withstood, maybe sans fire and falling trees...part of the price of paradise???

 

Andrew was a small hurricane. Ride it out in Davie Florida and there was weak tropical storm conditions. A lot of damage was caused by lax construction in the southern part of Miami Dade, a good deal of which had been developed in the late 1970s and early 1980s. I all at rose it out down there in a community of prefab houses. An absurd violation of the South Florida building code. The entire community was destroyed

 

This storm must really be intensifying and winding up. On Miami, we had a cloudy day. As the storm has gotten closer, in the last couple of hours, the sun has come out. The clouds and moisture are being sucked toward the center. Meanwhile, we are under a tropical storm warning in Miami Beach. And we are very far away from where the center will be at its closest pass. Forecast projects 30 mph sustained with higher gusts. Not tropical storm strength, but we may be 250-300 miles away from the center when it passes

 

No doubt, there were really no codes back then and the ones they had, people just built around it. Can't do that now. But there were block homes leveled as well, with clear paths where the core tornados did extreme damage to neighborhoods. I remember watching a History channel I believe show that showed what the paths were inside the storm. Incredible wind speeds. Andrew was a 360 degree hurricane, I hope we never see one like that again. I seriously doubt even modern construction could stand up to those kinds of winds.

 

...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

 

Maybe it was compact, but Andrew was a devastating storm. I was in the Atlantic working on a cruize ship. We bolted from Nassau out in front of the storm, then waited for it to proceed into the peninsula. My drive from Canaveral looked like a giant tornado hit all the way past Orlando. Turnpike tolls were wide open, which was nice. None of this, though, tells of the devastation in Homestead.

 

From the 4 pm discussion:

INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH (146 miles W of St Pete)

36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND (Preston, GA 160 miles N of Alligator Point)
Still Hurricane Strength 160 miles inland.......WOW!!

48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
43 miles East of Nashville, TN...... crazy!

60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

Tampa update: It is deathly quiet. No breeze no rain.

 

They put a traffic light there, it must still be popular lol

Large stretches of 98 will be destroyed again.
It's gonna be a mess getting down there for a while. Family house in St James will get hammered again too

Ate at the Blue Parrot Monday....that looks like ground zero now