Helene headed to Florida's Gulf Coast

Helene won't be the strongest but will go down as one of the largest storms in the Gulf. It has an expansive wind field. It is expected to have a tropical storm wind field reaching out 175 miles.

It's expected to pass Tampa 135 miles off the coast. With that wind field that will drive storm surge right up the bay.

 

I'm still traumatized by Camille, when those sucker's wrap around Cuba and hit those warm Gulf waters, watch out barometric pressure. Camille almost hit 900 milabars.

 

I feel like they are always stronger than predicted the last decade or so.

 

Based on the hurricane models on weathernerds.org, I dont see a massive storm like they keep talking about. The models are terrible with intensity forcasts, especially the Euro and GFS. The weaker this thing is, which alot of models are pointing to, then yes it will be big. But the hurricane models all have this in the low 940-920mb range and the storm gets more compact. Tampa and the nature coast need to pay attention, but CFL and lower shouldnt have much impact, if any.

Things can change, but looks like the area between Liberty County (Mayo) and Tallahassee is going to be a disaster area for awhile.

 

Warmer waters in the Gulf. If I recall it was about a degree and a half increase over the last 10 or 15 years last time I looked into it on one of these threads. Not sure if the models have caught up to that fully yet.

 

Raw data readings are showing a hurricane at the 11 am advisory. Also it appears to have started its turn north which is earlier than projected. The center has appeared to miss the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

 

My argument is that in the last 100 years only Katrina was a deadly Cat 3 and that was more a function of hitting New Orleans via flooding. All the other deadly hurricanes are CAT 4/5's. But I am no expert.

 

Its all about storm surge and tornados. Most structures outside of trailors can withstand a decent amount of straight line wind.

 

Since Andrew the code for buildings has gotten way more strict. When I was installing pool cages in SW Florida back after Charlie we were getting new screws and bolts weekly due to ongoing changes. When I started we would only have one cable on the corners and 4 to 5 inch tapcons on the beams to needing a cable every other beam and big bolts to secure the beams.

Of course Andrew was also cat 5 I believe. All bets are off with that amount of wind but low cat 4 and below I'm more worried about tornadoes or surge I'd you're near the coast.

Ft myers beach is a good example of this. It's known to be a lot of older buildings but mostly with updated code. During Ian everything seemed relatively OK until storm surge came and wiped out nearly everything. There's a video of a complete Hooters restaurant floating down the road.

 

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH (225 miles SW of St Pete)
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH (20 miles E of St George Island)
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

I am having difficulty reconciling the wind quadrant graphic on Tropical Tidbits (link below showing 60 nm on East side and 40 nm Northwest) with what I'm reading and seeing about a super large wind field. I know as it strengthens, it might get more compact, but these numbers both seem to be current, so I am not sure what I'm missing there.

Is the Tropical Tidbits graphic just wrong?

Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits

 

Also important to consider that many structures that could withstand the wind speed of a given hurricane in isolation get pummeled by trees and other debris which essentially become missiles. That happened in Ivan which was ultimately rated a strong Cat 3 after we thought it was going to be a Cat 4. It was a very intense night in the neighborhood I was in with so many trees. Frankly, even with the strongest storms like Michael, it amazes me that there aren't even more deaths than there are.

 

Those would be current wind speeds and actually they are stronger now that it's a hurricane.
This storm is not expected to contract. It's going to be a large wind field storm.

I have seen projections of sustained 30-40 mph on the northeast coast of Florida.

 

Worst part of working remotely in Florida is hurricane season. It’s looking likes it’s going to be bad around us so preparing for worst case scenario as always.

 

Yeah, I think the Tidbits graphic must be off or outdated. We are planning to drive from Pensacola to Destin tomorrow for a planned family trip. Going to keep monitoring to make sure the drive isn't going to be an issue.

 

In case anybody is interested or will find it useful, my son in Florida likes Mike’s Weather Page. It looks to me like a Weather aggregator.

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