I tend to agree with your win assessment, but from what I hear is that Napier does very well with recruits on a personal level. So, who knows? Not sure how that plays out if he loses his way to the end of the season. Like I've said before, kids want to play for a winner. I think he makes it to the end of the season. I personally don't like his offensive scheme or philosophy in the SEC's pass and TD happy conference. Let him go play in the Big Ten. If the W/L record is a cluster, then he's gone if it looks like the recruiting class is melting away. Otherwise he may have a chance to stick around. We'll see.
He might get another year, but it will come with two costs: - Losing that #3 class - UF losing money on the program due to all the losses.
Zook was a PHENOMENAL recruiter and clicked the same with recruits. But at the end of the day, he couldn't translate that to many wins. Napier is the same in that regard, but sooner or later that boo$ter money starts talking at UF.