GOP Second Debate Thread

Ha, what? The Trump Syndicate will win Florida too. So? Only Obama has even flirted with 50% in almost three decades of D candidates.

I can't even decipher what your posts are even about.

 

Why we will never be free …

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/will-we-never-be-free/

 

At roughly the same time in the 2008 cycle, Giuliani was leading the polls with 29% followed by Fred Thompson second at 22% with John McCain third at 16%. McCain was behind Giuliani by a 13% margin.
Poll: Giuliani leads for GOP nomination - CNN.com (from Sept. 2007)
Some of the recent polls from this cycle:

You really think the 2008 cycle is comparable with the 2024 cycle? There is a huge difference between Trump leading DeSantis by 38% in the closest poll and Rudy with a 13 percent lead over the number three candidate who ended up as the eventual nominee.

 

Are you discounting the pro abortion people who will be out in force and that they are not likely to vote for the people that caused this travesty to begin with?

 

The comparison is Giuliani and Thompson weren't even remotely close to actually getting the nomination. So, yes this is an apt comparison.

 

So you think that because McCain was able to overcome a 13% deficit in early polls in the 2008 cycle another Republican candidate can overcome an average deficit of over 40% against Trump at this point in the 2024 cycle? Numbers do matter and while it's theoretically possible as long as Trump remains physically and mentally capable of running and in his case the latter is a rather low bar he will be the Republican nominee. I guess there is also the extremely remote possibility that Trump agrees to withdraw in exchange for a blanket plea agreement under which he avoids incarceration in exchange for a withdrawal from politics although that possibility is even less likely than another candidate winning the nomination. Also keep in mind that if somehow the gap is narrowed Trump can still win the nomination with under 50 percent of the total Republican vote thanks to the party's winner-take-all primaries.

 

So let's see where Giuliani and Thompson ended up in 08? Rudy went from leading to getting zero delegates and Thompson got 9 delegates. So yeah, a lot can change in 6 months.

 

You really don't have any idea how the bulk of fentanyl is getting into the United States, do you?

 

Rudy made a very serious strategic error in 2008. He thought that he could win the nomination through a large haul of delegates in Florida and subsequent primaries and didn't really bother campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire. The strategy backfired with Rudy ending up in a hole from he was unable to extricate himself.

Using a football analogy it's much easier to overcome a one or even two touchdown deficit than a 40-point deficit and at this point team Trump is leading team (insert DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamey, etc.) by 40 points plus.

 

Apparently he doesn't considering the overwhelming majority of fentanyl is smuggled with legitimate cargoes and enters the US through legal ports of entry. If it were possible to completely seal the Southern border from illegal immigrants the amount of fentanyl entering the US would be barely affected if at all.
Fentanyl Is Smuggled for U.S. Citizens By U.S. Citizens, Not Asylum Seekers

• Over 90 percent of fentanyl seizures occur at legal crossing points or interior vehicle checkpoints, not on illegal migration routes, so U.S. citizens (who are subject to less scrutiny) when crossing legally are the best smugglers.
• The location of smuggling makes sense because hard drugs at ports of entry are about 97 percent less likely to be stopped than are people crossing illegally between them.
• Just 0.02 percent of the people arrested by Border Patrol for crossing illegally possessed any fentanyl whatsoever.

 

Just throw in some profanity and misogyny and they might catch on. The precedent is all too well established.

 

LOL. Blaming it on strategic errors. Got it. You must be exhausted from the backpedaling.

 

You're the one who tried to draw an analogy between the early polls in the 2008 Republican primary cycle and the 2024 cycle, I was mentioning why Rudy's candidacy failed so miserably. While he may very well have lost in any event he did himself not favors by essentially writing off both Iowa and New Hampshire. Once again there is a difference in an election in which the leading candidate led his two closest competitors by 13 percent at the most in the early polls and an election in which one candidate leads the remaining field by an average margin of over 40 percent at the same point in the cycle.

 

How about your boy Fred Thompson? He make a "strategic error" also? Those 2 went from 1-2 to getting pretty much zero delegates. So again, an apt comparison.

 

I don’t know that the conclusion that most of the smuggling occurs at points of entry necessarily follows from the fact that most of the seizures occur at ports of entry.

That reads to me like a bunch of statistics cobbled together, none of which (either individually or combined) actually proves what you’re citing it for, and the article itself is focused largely on knocking down a strawman (I’m not sure that anyone is contending that Honduran asylum seekers are carrying backpacks full of fentanyl over en masse, they’re saying that migrants looking to stay in the US aren’t the only thing that crosses the border).

For one thing, the 90% number includes seizures at interior checkpoints - the very purpose of which is to intercept activities that bypassed official border crossings. And it’s presumably not the same Mexican drug cartel members who get the drugs over the border in the first place who then move them around within the United States - my guess is that once they get into the country they are fairly quickly passed off to people who reside in the US.

And it’s not surprising that very few of the individuals who CBP encounters for illegal border crossings have drugs, particularly under an “asylum” surge where a substantial portion of the illegal border crossers are actively trying to encounter CBP officers so that they can make an asylum claim.

It seems like a relatively safe assumption that organized efforts to bring drugs across the border are likely being conducted by the people most skilled at evading capture by border patrol, and also the people least likely to hang around in the US for long periods of time. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising that individuals apprehended by CBP (largely the people trying to get themselves, as opposed to objects, into the United States) don’t represent much in the way of drug seizures.

 

I had the same conversation the other day regarding Trump. There is nobody that I know that wants Trump to win. And so that leads me to really question the veracity if these polls showing Trump as the overwhelming favorite of the Republican Party. How can he be the overwhelming favorite when I literally know nobody who favors him?!?!

 

Kari Lake...

 

LMFAO! Too funny, Ben.

 

These are several assumptions, Ben... unsupported suppositions.