In all seriousness, here the temperatures haven't been hitting the forecasted highs. Within a few degrees to be sure, but the forecasted highs have been a bit overstated thus far. Anecdotal, I know, but noteworthy at the same time.
NASA: "Unprecedented" Underwater Volcanic Eruption Likely Responsible for Current Heat Waves Measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder on NASA's Aura satellite indicate the excess water vapor is equivalent to around 10% of the amount of water vapor typically residing in the stratosphere, where this "excess stratospheric H2O will persist for years, could affect stratospheric chemistry and dynamics, and may lead to surface warming." This estimate, conducted in late 2022 has been recently revised upward from a 10% increase in stratospheric water vapor to a 30% increase by the European Space Agency. Water vapor is a well-recognized "greenhouse gas," whose heightened presence leads to higher surface temperatures, a mechanism much more powerful than the interaction of atmospheric CO2, as explained by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere [Emphases added] NASA: "Unprecedented" Underwater Volcanic Eruption Likely Responsible for Current Heat Waves | Joe Herring | NewsBreak Original
So interesting. This NPR article from last year suggested a warming effect from the eruption could last 5-10 years. Pretty crazy. https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming