GDP surges to 2.6% for the year, better than expected

The corporate overlords want a recession. They want to do mass layoffs and force people back into offices to save commercial real estate. Too many well paid happy employees makes that harder.

 

You’re missing some zeros. At least 2.

 

Might be right. That’s the least far fetched conspiracy I’ve heard in a while.

 

The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 30, 2022.

 

I think you would be surprised to find that the 20% that overperformed the market last year will not be the same as those that overperform the market this year. Nor were they the same that overperformed the market 2 years ago. Consistent overperformance is not the type of thing that you will find, almost by definition, as anybody who consistently overperforms the market without doing so due to higher risk exposure, would be emulated pretty quickly by the rest of the market.

Beyond that, if a money manager were able to do that, theoretically, and somehow keep their secrets to themselves, they would be stupid not to extract exorbitantly high fees that would wipe out much of the gains from doing that.

 

Unless you have enough assets to get in on some HFT hedge fund action, the best way to make money is time in the market (or have insider information).

 

Yep, index funds tend to outperform the stock pickers pretty consistently, holding risk constant. Stock pickers that claim to always overperform the market have a very high rate of being con artists.

 

I was going to say get elected to Congress, but you beat me to it.

 

Maybe if you cross your fingers extra hard, the revised number will be 2.3% instead of 2.6%.

 

Yup. I've been saying this for months. The only reason to keep raising rates is to blow up the labor market (the only thing keeping us afloat). Capital wants its cheap labor back and a soft landing doesn't accomplish that.

Look out below!

 

There is little evidence that any money manager can consistently beat index funds. The longer the time frame, the higher percent who fall behind the index.

It is pretty intuitive. Index funds are priced based on the net results of all active markets. So before fees, you would expect index funds to equal the average of all active markets.

Then, subtract fees, at anywhere from 0.5% and 2.0% per year, and the active managers eventually fall behind. Even the ones who may have beat the market excluding fees.

Over 20 years, even with a 0.5% fee, which is very low for an active fund, the manager would have to beat the index by 10%. At a 1% fee they’d have to do 22%. At 2%, which is Edward jones territory, the manager would have to beat the index by 50%.

 

Refi's are in the tank, new manufacturing orders have not been this low since '08, behemoth companies like google & microsoft stock prices are plunging which matters to millions of american's who have them in their 401k's (ad rev's have dropped dramatically). mortgage rates are highest in forever. homes are not selling. energy prices suck. food prices suck. credit card debt is at an all time high. this economy is sucking the life out of small businesses and the middle class not to mention low wage earners.

 

Fed will do whatever benefits the bankers, if they destroy the economy in the process...oh well.

 

Do you have a link for that?
thanks

 

This is updated as of October 4th:
Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing

They would have been correct in April and May of 2020, but we been consistently increasing in new orders since then, and since November 2021, there has only been one month ever with higher new orders than we've seen every month for the last 10 months of the data set.

 

Then Amazon reports much weaker earnings as does Apple.

 

Watch the housing market. All of this "growth" is weighing down on the housing market. We may see a crash not seen since 2007 and that would send us into a depression when once again mortgages > value of the property and banks come calling for owners to pay the difference.

 

Amazon was weaker. Apple was quite strong. Apple's earnings were up 9% year-over-year. Apple's stock is currently up almost 8% today.