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Gator Baseball 2023 Official Roster Tracker/Lineup???

Discussion in 'GatorGrowl's Diamond Gators' started by Matherly87, Jun 12, 2022.

  1. Matherly87

    Matherly87 GC Hall of Fame

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    A case study for our starting pitcher on Sunday against Georgia.....

    I began by comparing the 4 most likely pitchers to replace Caglianone. They are Abner, Nesbitt, Neely, and Slater. Each of them could be good arguments as to their ability to become a weekend starter from the body of work we have seen of late. Abner is the only LHP of the bunch and has the lowest ERA just over 1 as well in 12 appearances over 17 innings. Sully has said he likes him when facing R or L hitters. Nesbitt, the second best ERA of them, has been our main midweek starter and has shown on and off success against SEC teams, over 6 appearances with 3 midweek starts and 18 innings pitched. Neely has been the closer this year with a 3.09 ERA, while last year stepping into the weekend starter spot over the last 10 weekends, including postseason play. Slater has the highest ERA at 3.80 of them but has come on strong over his last 3 appearances, only giving up 1 run over 8 innings.

    But when you look at conference games only then things change. Abner has a 0.00 ERA over 7 innings. Slater has a 1.69 ERA but the smallest WHIP of .39 against SEC play and seems to excel as a long reliever. Neely has pitched the most in conference innings at 10 with a 1.80 ERA. Nesbitt has the highest ERA of 2.70, not that bad, in 6.2 innings. Nesbitt had a great outing against Auburn but got lit up today for 5 runs, 3 were unearned, against Tennessee. Stats wise it looks like Abner might be the choice.

    Digging deeper, I looked at the competition and Georgia's 5 best hitters are all right-handed. That alone probably cancels out Abner, if we are talking about wanting him go 5 plus innings. The second time thru the lineup might get tricky against that many good right-hand hitters. But Sully also has Friday and Saturday to watch these same hitters when they face our best RHP to decide if RHP is an advantage. So I wouldn't be surprised if Sully does not announce a Sunday starter until after looking at how the matchups go in the first two games. His best arm might be Abner but the matchups don't seem right.

    Digging even deeper, I looked in shear terror at last year's 3 game sweep by Georgia in Athens. I found a huge answer for this study. You see going into Georgia we were still trying to find a Sunday starter because Manning wasn't working out weeks before. We had tried Pogue, Slater, and Milchin but all of them were leading us to Sunday losses and a bullpen being led by a tiring Purnell. The third game at Georgia we started Milchin, who gave up 2 runs without recording an out, before Neely came in with two men in scoring position and nobody out. Mind you we had already lost in game 1 and 2. Neely immediately got three outs without giving up a run to close the inning. He stayed in and pitched thru the fifth inning, while only giving up 1 run and only 3 hits. You see what's interesting, this was the game that propelled Neely to become our weekend starter and it was against Georgia.

    Also of note in this same game 3 at Georgia, Abner pitched 1 inning and gave up 2 earned runs and even worse Nesbitt pitched 1 inning and gave up 6 earned runs, getting the Sunday loss in the end. So it seems clearly to me, since Georgia has so many key right-hand hitters, with Neely's success facing them last year, and Neely's starting experience mainly against SEC teams, the starter on Sunday against Georgia should be Neely. If he can do what he did last year in the midst of all our problems and became a key player in our team's late season turn around, well he gets my endorsement to go do it again. About the only thing that should change this for me is if Sully sneaks Coppola out there for a short start to surprise us all. That would be fine by me.

    I understand starting Neely means we now need to find another closer. Could that be Cags or Slater or even better Abner? Don't be shortsighted if the starter choice is Neely and thereby losing our closer. This way Neely can be more effective over 5+ innings instead 1-2 innings as a closer. I always thought going into the year Cags would make a good closer. That's only if he can find the strike zone again. However it works out, it will be interesting to watch Sully mold these young men into winners by putting them in the best opportunity for success. Go Gators!
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2023
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  2. shane4three

    shane4three GC Hall of Fame

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    it’s interesting, when I brought the naming a new third starter up earlier I got disagrees. We all know something has to change and most agree on this. We simply have to be competitive in our third game each week.

    Good points all around. Neely could and in my opinion would be a solid choice. But who then is the closer? Cags to me is not a closer due to control issues. Not sure what we do with Cags. I like the mid week option.

    Abner could be a solid closer I think.

    Slater- solid choice as a starter and I feel like he could give us 4-5 quality innings.

    Nesbitt- could give us 4-5 innings for sure. Vs UT 3 of those runs unearned. I like that he throws lots of strikes.
     
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  3. gator1977

    gator1977 GC Legend

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    I've said before that Neely would be the logical choice for the Sunday slot given his success last year but on further examination - the closer role is arguably more important at this stage in the season. Neely is a bona fide strike thrower and cool under pressure- ideal as the closer.
    Abner may be a weekend guy next year but he's found his footing as the middle relief guy and possible closer.
    I would not favor Nesbitt as SP against SEC comp- I don't think he has the stuff to consistently succeed against the big boys- more of a 1-2-innings guy vs SEC and a mid-week starter.
    That leaves Slater... I'd give him a shot as that 3rd starter vs a righthand hitting heavy UGA squad and see how it goes.
    It's too bad that Cags has not cut it as our 3rd starter vs SEC as we'd hoped- but frankly he's been asked to do too much.
    My one gripe about the pitching is that Sully hasn't given a few guys like Arroyo more opportunities- Chris looked great in his SEC work vs Ole Miss and where is Ursitti? -- is he still on the team? It seems that 3-4 guys in the pen have fallen off the screen.
     
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  4. apkgator

    apkgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Have to assume Slater was going to start vs FSU, hasn't thrown since game 1 vs AU....where he was very good. Have to wonder if Sully might do some flipping and save him for Sunday. Kinda doubt it, but the options are a little limited.
     
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  5. 74nole

    74nole GC Hall of Fame

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    If a change with our weekend SP’s is going to take place I think there is only one clear choice— that is Brandon Neely. It’s the middle of our SEC schedule-period.

    He is our only experienced option IMHO. Looking at the rest of our staff it’s just too small of a sample size to make facts-based decisions.

    Right now I would look at Abner in the closer role if he can maintain his newer level of command/control. I would also work Cags in his pen work with using him in the closer role in mind and see how he responds.

    Slater would be my choice for first long or middle relief with our current options. To me, Nesbitt is capable, but needs to toughen his game up. You can’t show any signs of uncertainty or timidness to SEC caliber opposition and to me he comes across without the confidence or control of his game or it’s execution.
     
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  6. MatsideObserver

    MatsideObserver GC Hall of Fame

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    Slater threw game 3 vs Auburn. I suspect he would have thrown yesterday if we made it to the 4th/5th still in the game. They did run him out to the bullpen.
     
  7. MatsideObserver

    MatsideObserver GC Hall of Fame

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    @74nole well said! Who knows what they will do but IMO that makes the most sense if you are going to redefine roles at this point.
     
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  8. gator1977

    gator1977 GC Legend

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    My first choice to replace Cags has been Neely all along for several reasons- proven success being the most important. However, at this stage of the season, one has to weigh how much value to place on his role as a quality closer as oppose to his value added as a 3rd starter. Tough call if your primary goal is to win SEC series' every weekend and your proven SP will give you only 6 or 7 innings. I'd be ok with either Neely or Slater. We shall see.
     
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  9. ocalaman

    ocalaman GC Hall of Fame

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    He won't give up on Jac - just think he moves him off the weekend. Neely proved himself as the #3 starter towards the end of last year, so does he go with him or give another guy a shot first? Will he start Jac against FSU?
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2023
  10. INGATORSWETRUST

    INGATORSWETRUST GC Hall of Fame

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    Can’t have the walks from anyone in the rotation or coming on in relief. Free base runners are the kiss of death
     
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  11. 74nole

    74nole GC Hall of Fame

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    Truth! There is no defense for them.
     
  12. gtr2x

    gtr2x GC Hall of Fame

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    And that's why you're "the man" when it comes to pitching. Great points
    ( and of course I agree :)).
    Never having pitched, my only question would be how hard is it for the mind set to come from being the closer to starting?
     
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  13. 74nole

    74nole GC Hall of Fame

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    2x—

    In my opinion there is no hurdle for Neely to clear as he has been successful at both roles at this level.

    For Brandon, it’s a matter of re-setting his pitching work routine back to a starting pitcher role vs the closer role (again as he has successfully done both). Everyone should expect for it to take a couple to three starts to stretch his pitch counts out while keeping his body in the right recovery mode to successfully continue in his SP role.
     
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  14. gator34654

    gator34654 GC Hall of Fame

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    IMO, Cags has yet to show consistency throwing strikes. I'd use him mid week and see if he improves otherwise use him at first base and as our DH.
    Why does it seem that far too many of our pitchers have control issues? We make it so easy for teams for after a few walks, our pitchers tend to serve up hr balls.
     
  15. shane4three

    shane4three GC Hall of Fame

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    I respect your opinion a great deal and agree with most of it. The only thing I would say with regards to your comments about Nesbitt… His sample size against SEC competition to me has not been bad. It’s too small to know at this point. But I would say He was very good against Auburn and without a bad error against UT he’d have been ok. Better than our current number three starter for sure. I think Neely or Slater are good if Not best choices if and only if Abner goes to closer. Cags cannot be closer. That is a big gamble in my book as if he comes in and walks two or three guys then where do you go? I thought Nesbitt went right at hitters, threw tons of strikes, and wasn’t timid at all as evidenced by his throwing at a batter. That HBP cost him later so I’m thinking some would want him to be less aggressive, I know I questioned him there. I was surprised he went at Moore. While teammates may like that, it ended up costing us a run.

    let me also remind you that although I feel like I’ve been around baseball for a long time, you will forget more about pitching then I will ever know so I could be off base and definitely defer to your wisdom.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2023
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  16. ocalaman

    ocalaman GC Hall of Fame

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    Just facts for consideration. In our 12 SEC games, here are the numbers:
    Rivera - .404 5 HR 12 RBI 7 BB 8 K
    Heyman - .368 4 HR 12 RBI 4 BB 5 K
    Caglionone - .340 6 HR 12 RBI 1 BB 10 K
    Halter - .295 1 HR 8 RBI 4 BB 6 K
    Langford - .258 3 HR 3 RBI 15 BB 8 K
    Robertson - .256 0 HR 7 RBI 7 BB 15 K
    Riopelle - .250 3 HR 8 RBI 9 BB 21 K
    Prevesk - .250 1 HR 7 RBI 1 BB 6 K
    Kurland - .235 4 HR 11 RBI 1 BB 15 K
    Shelnut - .200 0 HR 2 RBI 2 BB 7 K
    Schiekofer - .125 0 HR 0 RBI 0 BB 5 K
    Evans - .105 0 HR 3 RBI 1 BB 15 K

    Team BA in SEC games is 269, .373 OBP, .524 slugging %

    Team ERA in SEC games is 5.42, 4 saves, 16 HR, 69 BB, 136 K.
    ERA sampling:
    Abner - 0.00, 2-0 in 7 innings, 2 BB, 11 K
    Slater - 1.69, 1-0 in 5.1 innings, 0 BB, 4 K
    Neely - 1.80 - 0-0, 3 saves in 10 innings, 3 BB, 16 K
    Nesbitt - 2.70, 0-0 in 6.2 innings, 2 BB, 6 K
    Waldrep - 5.25, 3-1 in 24 innings, 15 BB, 35 K
    Sproat - 5.91, 2-1 in 21.1 innings, 11 BB, 29 K
    Caglionone - 9.95, 0-1 in 12.2 innings, 18 BB, 13 K

    Our fielding in conference games is exactly the same as it is overall - .974.
    Kurland is fielding at .939 in SEC games, .947 overall
    Halter is fielding at .893 in SEC games, .914 overall.
    Rivera is at .955 in the SEC,.973 overall.
    Cags is at .982 in conference games, .967 overall.
    Riopelle is fielding at .993 in SEC games, .992 overall

    Analyze away, brothers & sisters
     
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  17. apkgator

    apkgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Nesbitt faced 16 batters, 6 of them reached off of him, one more reached on error.....two hit homers and one double. That's not an ok outing. It was better than some of the other junk we saw in that game, but that bar was ridiculously low. We need better than what any of them gave in that game.
     
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  18. gator1977

    gator1977 GC Legend

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    OFF-TOPIC ALERT:
    Don't lay an egg on Easter Saturday on a nationally broadcast ballgame....
    I had been talking up our Gators team to family and friends who live outside of our region and with the poor weather and Masters rained out several tuned into the Gators-Vols game.... I heard it from them in their Easter greetings yesterday... to the effect... "what are you saying about your team looking like Championship material.. walking 17 batters.... how is that even possible?"... all in good fun but a major flop on natonal TV is never good.
     
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  19. fat_gator

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    It was 47 degrees and raining, most of them never pitched in that crap before. Not making excuses for them but that could have been a huge factor
     
  20. ocalaman

    ocalaman GC Hall of Fame

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    And the sun came out and the field dried up every time Tennessee's pitchers took the mound. :)
     
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