FSU Suing ACC over withdrawal Fee

The Big 12 has a history of unequal distribution of revenue based on program prominence. It would be interesting to see if all of the new and larger ACC schools would try to recreate the previous model.

 

The networks are in control of their movements, even though those two teams don't know it yet. The networks are not about to re-work and entire conference and their member team contracts for FSU and Clemson's blubbering about money. The networks, not those two schools, hold all the cards.

And the truth is that two different conferences would be effected by FSU and Clemson's desire to soak up more money for they sports telecast rights.

So they would effect two major conferences and all those team there in... they missed the boat and I have no sympathetic for them.

 

See, I think they've learned their lesson and don't want to go down that road again. The 16 schools there now all seem happy and content with their current lot that they wouldn't give that up be looked down on like Texas used to do to most of them.

 

Yep, apparently he got his BIG's mixed up....although it would be hilarious to contemplate that UCF was getting a bigger conference payout than FSU

 

I find it very difficult to believe the Big-10 or SEC has told Clemson or FSU anything specific at this point. While I'm sure the Big-10 and SEC have had some informal discussions, I really doubt they've had any direct discussions with FSU or Clemson or had any vote.

That said, I stand by my opinion that there's really no reason for the Big-10/SEC to take on any additional programs unless those schools are each going to generate an additional $60M+ annually in revenue. And as I've stated, Notre Dame is probably the ONLY program out there that does that, because Notre Dame creates an additional TV slot with NBC for a conference.

If Notre Dame were to make themselves available to the Big-10 or SEC, I could see FSU (over FSU) being the second school picked up by either conference.

 

Hilarious...the Clowns are stuck. No money and they willingly signed that contract. They can complain all they want but a deal is a deal fellows. Pony up that massive exit fee (minus the clown noses) and youre free to go. Oh wait...your broke. Well in the real world suck it up buttercup and when the contract runs out in a decade you can just leave. Otherwise shut your pie hole.

 

That's all very true, but there is a new theory I've heard that may have altered my view of realignment down the road a little bit.

I have argued that the Big-10 and SEC would NEVER kick a current member out of the conference without cause (ie - Vandy, MSU, Northwestern, Purdue etc.) and that those schools are in the conferences forever. I have stated that it would be a very bad idea for the conferences to ever kick any member out, without cause. I still stand by that opinion.

But more recently, I've heard what I think is a pretty reasonable theory that in the next round of TV negotiations with the SEC and Big-10 (several years down the road), that the TV networks may push back on the idea of paying $60-70M+ for the smaller underperforming schools that don't generate the revenue and the networks may either push a more uneven distribution model within the conferences or push the conferences remove underperforming members.

I still don't believe the SEC or Big-10 will kick any members out (at least not founding members), but I could see a situation where the TV networks convince the top SEC and Big-10 schools to basically leave their current conferences and form a completely new conference/league entity. And at that point they may pull in small handful of programs to replace them. I would think Notre Dame, UNC, FSU and Clemson might be stronger candidates at that point.

I'm not saying this will happen, but I think it's plausible. But I don't think it will happen before the next round of TV negotiations. FSU and Clemson are probably stuck until the next round of media negotiations.

 

Do you think S Carolina feels the same way about clempson that we do about half ass u?

 

Reading that tweet, it says that their Big 12 payout would be twice what the ACC is paying. I don't think it will be that much. Maybe more but no where near twice.
Plus, I like the fact that if they get in the Big 12, it has similar geography issues that the Big 10 does and they will have to shell out travel money for their band to get to Arizona, Cal, and colorado.

 

The question wasn't directed at me, but I live in South Carolina and I can answer it.

South Carolina hates Clemson about 3x as much as we hate FSU.
WE have lots of rivals, South Carolina has 1- Clemson.

 

Why would the Big-12 offer them more? FSU has no other options, so they have no leverage. There's really no reason for the Big-12 to offer them more.

The Big-12 is basically in the same boat as the Big-10 and SEC. There are no more TV slots available to put additional games into. Granted an FSU or Clemson is probably going to draw more TV fans, especially on the East Coast, but adding FSU and Clemson isn't likely to generate significantly more revenue to the Big-12 conference.

 

All true but the Big 12 can pay more because they didn't stupidly hitch their wagon to a TV deal that doesn't expire until 2036. But, it will be no where near what the SEC and big 10 will be getting per team from their TV deal. Right now the Big 10 gets the most but that will change once the SEC re-does their deal and back and forth it will go until something else gives.

 

How?

The Big-12 deal is for $2.28B over 6 years, which is $380M per year, which with 16 teams is about $24M per program annually. If the Big-12 adds FSU and Clemson I don't believe the payout from ABC/ESPN changes because it's based on a certain number of televised games during the season, not the number of teams.

Adding FSU and Clemson probably doesn't increase the number of games on TV, it likely displaces a lower rated ACC game. It's the same deal with the SEC and Big-10. It's the exact reason the Big-10 and SEC aren't likely to be interested in FSU or Clemson, most likely until the next round of TV negotiations.

Unless there's some clause in the contract or ABC/ESPN decide to renegotiate for FSU and Clemson, or ABC/ESPN can blow up the ACC TV deal and create new game slots, the conference revenue should remain the same.

To add FSU and Clemson at an equal share, the payout per member would drop to about $21M. If they give FSU and Clemson a double share, that number drops to $19M. Do you think the current Big-12 members will be would to give up $5M a year to allow them to give FSU and Clemson $38M for 5-6 years? I don't see that happening.

 

That is interesting, but it would have to be the conferences kicking out team, which I don't see happening. The reason is that these TV deals are not team centric nor are they based by paying individual teams... It's one big lump sum to the entire SEC conference and we divvy it up evenly.

Having said that... I do think that if we had better teams in their stead, we might be able to get a larger total TV package deal/amount and that way we could spread a bigger piece of pie to every member team...

But in a way... yeah, there are some teams that might keep the SEC from getting a bigger TV deal... sure.

 

We agree! I specifically stated that I don't think any teams are likely to EVER be kicked out of the SEC, Big-10 or any other conference. That would be a bad look. I think the schools of choice would have to voluntarily leave their conferences and form a brand new entity. That's the only way I see it working.

It would likely be the TV networks driving this because they're the ones controlling the money. I don't think they would make the final decisions, but if they propose a deal in the next go around where the 16 SEC teams get $100M a year and privately offer the top 12 $150M a year to leave the SEC/Big10 and form a new entity, what do you think would happen?

The SEC/Big-10 programs who aren't invited would be left in a similar situation as WSU and Oregon State and have to scramble to get into the Big-12 or ACC. Or maybe they pull teams up from the Big-12 and ACC.

I don't know if this will actually happen, but with the TV networks probably being in financial trouble, they're going to be looking for ways to get out of paying $60-70M to programs that aren't generating the revenue.

 

The networks aren’t paying individual schools. They are paying conferences. It’s up to the schools how the money is distributed

 

The issue is that the ACC locked up their deal until 2036. It was like a 20 year deal or so. That was extremely foolish of them. At least with the big 12 (and others) if the terms are shorter, that allows for being able to negotiate a better deal if the conference adds more teams. TV networks are going to want the terms as long as possible and the conferences are going to want the terms as short as possible.
Otherwise, you are correct, the conference would take a hit unless they bring teams in at lower rates like the Big 10 did. That's why FSU and Clemson should stay where they are because no conference members are going to agree to take less money just to get them in conference.

 

I disagree to an extent. The ACC did what it had to for survival at the time. The NC schools really put together what I think was a pretty good power move.

I also think the timing was pretty good. With the demise of cable TV and carriage, the big time TV deal negotiations may be over, or at least the model is changing. It's not what the SEC and Big-10 have, but it's still pretty good and locked in for a long time.

The Big-10, SEC and Big-12 may not get anywhere near the deal they have now in a few years.

It may not be a great deal for FSU and Clemson (and maybe UNC), but the rest of the ACC schools arguably have a pretty good deal and they probably have a long term deal ... unless FSU and Clemson find a way out without selling their souls.

I actually think FSU and Clemson may be best served by staying where they are, even though it's going to hurt. In the next round of negotiations, I do think FSU, Clemson, UNC and maybe UVA will probably be a good bargaining tool for a conference and conditions may be better where streaming is more profitable. There are just too many unknowns right now.

 

More "Big" 12 rumors are circulating and the Tallahassee crowd apparently isn't too excited. LOL!

 

Easy wins. They would love it.

So fsu definitely still wants out of the ACC? Is the SEC is interested? I hope they come out of this injured. By now, perhaps the ACC doesn't want them to stay.