Fox News poll finds Biden ahead of Trump by two points

Rasmussen had Trump winning by 1 point in September of 2020 when the polling average had Biden winning by 7 or so at that point, so it was off by 8 much later in the cycle than this. This is SOP for them.
They poll likely voters, who skew Republican this early generally, and even in their final election poll they usually assume a red wave scenario. They had Biden winning by one in their final 2020 poll when he won by 4.5. They had Trump winning the popular vote by 3 in late October 2016.
this is SOP for them, but it keeps getting them what they want, so why not?

 

Considering that Trump was losing to Clinton in every poll for the entire race in 2016 I really could care less about polling.

Trumps wins FL, OH, AZ and NV in my opinion. Biden will still win WI and VA (simply due to the NOVA vote, honestly NOVA should just be annexed into DC at this point, they have nothing in common with the rest of VA). It'll come down to GA, PA and MI. Those are the only 3 state polls I care about.

 

It helps to do your research:

White House Watch - Rasmussen Reports®

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey before Election Day.

The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Biden edging the president 48% to 47%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided.

On Friday, Biden had a three-point advantage – 49% to 46% - after the lead had seesawed up and down between the two men for the previous four days. The race has been tightening since early last month.

On the Monday before Election Day in 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton held a 45% to 43% lead over Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ daily White House Watch. While Trump won the presidency in the Electoral College, Clinton ultimately picked up two percent more of the overall popular vote.

Rasmussen final poll before the election had Biden at +1. The Friday before this release had Biden at +3. Rasmussen should have stopped at the Friday before the final poll as that is closer to what happened.

Not SOP. The information is readily available and is different from what you state.

 

I would think betting sites/prices/odds would be more accurate than polls. A national poll - whether it’s accurate or not - is pretty meaningless.

 

Believe when I say I have followed polling closer than almost anyone over the past 20 years. Pollsters often do what’s called herding, where their final poll tends to come on line with everyone else, just for debates like this. Even with that, in 2012 they had Romney winning by a point on Election Day. so two of the last elections they have skewed 5 points Republican from the final results.
And look at their polls farther out, like where we are now, and they are often the outlier.
they also somehow “proved” Kari Lake won AZ, despite 3 recounts. That led them to get dropped from 538 when they wouldn’t give their methodology.
they’re a partisan group, see it or don’t, but watch how they compare to everyone else and with the final results.

 

You are alright except when you come on this board and go crazy.