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Fed Chair Powell Joins the Inflation Conversation

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Jul 2, 2024.

  1. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Fed Chair Jerome Powell says inflation will be in the low to mid 2s in a year:

    Fed Chair Powell: Inflation rate will be in the mid-to-low 2s a year from now (msn.com)

    Time will tell if correct. However, those still holding out for rate cuts in 2024 shouldn't be holding their breath.

    In the low to mid 2s, the fed raised rates 7 times on Trump before inflation trended back below the Fed's 2.0% target. Once below the fed target, the fed followed up with 3 rate cuts.

    There is a strong group of board governors who want to wait and see what is going to happen with their stance that they will support increases if necessary or sit and wait until what Powell says above actually happens. There could be rate cuts if the inflation reduction to 2.0% looks like a lock to happen as the fed wouldn't want to be too restrictive in the perceived event of reaching the fed target goal.
     
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  2. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    I doubt Trump likes Powell. Raising rates that much on Trump was sabotage.
     
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  3. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    Higher longer!
     
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  4. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    Int rates are at their 50 year avg. so the new earthers now think time began 20 years ago?
     
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  5. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    I would be interested to see the comparison of the 50 year average to the 50 year average minus the Volcker years and the lowest years to see how how the average looks without the extremes.
     
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  6. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Inflation was spectacularly high and it took spectacularly high interest rates to kill it. Why would you want to modify history by taking out the Volcker years?
     
  7. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Why “wonder”? Charts are available. Anyone can see the charts and look where the fed has had rates going back to 1951 (which I guess was when they resumed “control” over rates).

    Federal Funds Effective Rate
     
  8. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    5% int rate, 4% UE seems pretty perfect….if the economy starts to go south we’ve plenty of cushion to boost it.
     
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  9. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Not just the Volcker years but the Great Recession and pandemic years as well
     
  10. AgingGator

    AgingGator GC Hall of Fame

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    That’s why I keep you guys around!!
     
  11. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Actually, that goes back to June 1954, 70 years.

    docspor says there is a 50-year average rate but didn't provide a link.

    I'd like to see the 70-year average rate. Can you provide a links for both as I can find neither the 50-year average nor the 70-year average?
     
  12. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    5% int rate. 4% UE. 3.2% inflation.

    Basically a Goldilocks economy in 2024, other than 1st time homebuyers and housing affordability perhaps (and that’s a biggun’ for sure).
     
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  13. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    Looks like 4-5% is a pretty healthy place to be on interest rate.
     
  14. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    int rates from 1971 - 2024 averaged 5.42%. I bet googles ai will give it to you for any period you want
     
  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Link please. Thanks
     
  16. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I read somewhere when I was searching for averages that the sweet spot is between 2% and 5%.
     
  17. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    i just googled it & got this

    The average interest rate in the United States from 1971 to 2024 was 5.42%. The federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to each other overnight, has seen a range of highs and lows over the years:
    • All-time high: 20% in March 1980
    • Record low: 0.25% in December 2008
     
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  18. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Since June 1954, 70 years, the average is 4.61%.
     
  19. l_boy

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    While 5% in many ways isn’t bad, it is bad when you have govt debt to GDP over 100% and projections it will continue to climb.
     
  20. thomadm

    thomadm VIP Member

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    Disagree, more like 7-10% is preferred. It's good historically at 4-5% because we are at a deficit every year that keeps growing and keeps devaluing the dollar. Great if your rich, not so great for the middle class and poor. Only way to fix that is to make borrowing so painful for congress, they stop doing so.