All you have to do is look at Brissett's success and see AR's possible future. Cleveland just beat my Bucs a month ago and I thought Tampa Bay would roll.
What QB would you have above AR on that list? Guys like Bennett and Hooker are way older and aren’t much better than AR today. Scouts are able to analyze well beyond the numbers. Bennett and Hooker play in QB friendly offenses. If AR swapped with either one you could easily argue AR would have performed as good or better. Scheme and surrounding talent matters A LOT
Right now they aren't, but Josh Allen had very similar issues compared to Richardson. Taking Allen at #7 was a boom-bust pick with considerable risk due to his flaws. Brian Daboll is the one who developed Allen when he got to the NFL. Richardson needs to walk into a situation where a coaching staff will bring him along slowly while he sits a few years behind the starter. With the right coach he could succeed.
My concern for the kid, and I'm a huge fan, is he'll break in the NFL. Possibly mentally, but more likely physically. Seemed less durable than some others. Great long pass arm and release. Fabulous scrambler. SEC kids are trying to kill you. In the NFL they will kill you. Important distinction. I wish him the best...great Gator. Great attitude. Go Gators.
Yeah, that is why it makes sense for AR to jump now. Very weak QB class, and the NFL teams need quarterbacks. Do I see him being a success? No. But he will get paid.
Here’s the thing - this is an NFL problem. The truth is- most of these dudes don’t know what they’re doing. Every once in a while you get a guy who’s earned his way up with hard work and is a beast at evaluating talent- Bellichik or Ozzie in Baltimore… just consistently great. But for the rest- it’s a guessing game that is continually flawed. With very little accountability. They can go years with making the wrong decision, maybe get fired? Then they’ll move on to another team. GMS’s and coaches are just privileged retreads. Every year you hear story after story of them taking the wrong guy, miss after miss, 5th round guys being great and 1st rounders flaming out- so it’s a guess. And he has a ton of upside and is a good kid so hopefully luck falls on his side.
Kiper's 1st Round mock draft picks: 3. Will Levis, QB, Kentucky 4. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 7. C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State 19. Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida HT: 6-4 | WT: 232 | Previously: NR Well, I wrote before the season that I was putting Richardson in my Big Board because of his potential. You can't coach his talent and physical ability, and NFL coaches will see the tools and try to develop him now that he has decided to enter the draft. He had an up-and-down season, throwing 17 touchdown passes and nine interceptions while running for nine scores. His 70.6 QBR ranked 35th in the country. Richardson is still very raw -- his mechanics and footwork need a lot of work. He has accuracy issues on shorter throws that should be easier. And yet, the arm strength and the dual-threat ability are so intriguing that a team near the end of Round 1 absolutely could take him and let him develop. What I say about the draft is that we're trying to project who a prospect could be, not evaluate exactly what he is right now. Richardson hasn't come close to his ceiling. He's going to be a polarizing prospect for the next few months. play 0:43 Richardson finds Pearsall for Gators' counterpunch Anthony Richardson connects with Ricky Pearsall for the 52-yard touchdown as the Gators respond to tie it 7-7.
Quarterbacks Kiper 1. Will Levis, Kentucky 2. Bryce Young, Alabama 3. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 4. Anthony Richardson, Florida 5. Jayden Daniels, LSU McShay 1. Bryce Young, Alabama 2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 3. Will Levis, Kentucky 4. Anthony Richardson, Florida 5. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee Reid 1. Bryce Young, Alabama 2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 3. Anthony Richardson, Florida 4. Will Levis, Kentucky 5. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee Miller 1. Bryce Young, Alabama 2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State 3. Will Levis, Kentucky 4. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee 5. Anthony Richardson, Florida
What am I missing here? I think if any Gator fan had the pick of 3) Richardson, 15) Duggan, 16) Hartman, or 17) Rising, Richardson probably finishes last in that group. Those three are just better college QB’s in my opinion even though they may not have as high a potential ceiling. If we had one of those three under center this past season I feel like we go 8-4 or 9-3.
I think you already identified what you are missing… the “high ceiling”. Not sure why this is so hard for some to understand. There isn’t anything more AR can do at the college level to move further up the board. First round money is first round money. Period. If he comes back and shows progress the move on the draft board is marginal. If not …he could fall significantly. It’s an enormous risk. Sign with a team (hopefully, one that understands development is needed) and get that 2nd contract.
This will be interesting to watch. AR has a ton of potential and some GM is going to take a shot on him. As others have said, huge risk huge reward type deal. Hope he goes somewhere with patience, I don't expect him to come in and tear up the league.
Says McShay: 11. Carolina Panthers (5-8) Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida OK, this one is going to raise some eyebrows. Full disclosure, taking Richardson this early is way too rich for my blood. He lacks experience and isn't NFL ready. We've seen a QB with 13 or fewer starts go this high only two other times since 2000, per ESPN's Stats & Information (Alex Smith and Mitch Trubisky). But what choice do the Panthers have? If they can't find an answer in free agency and end up picking outside the top 10, they might resort to desperate measures in desperate times. Richardson's physical traits are excellent, too, including elite mobility, great size (6-4 and 232 pounds) and a rocket arm. If Carolina can make a savvy coaching hire and get the right staff in place to develop him, then this could absolutely work. The Panthers have been outside the top 20 in QBR for the past four seasons and are last this year (21.9), so it's time to invest in a signal-caller in the draft -- even if that means reaching a bit. One other thing to watch: I think the Panthers could try to get ahead of the Falcons and Colts to draft Will Levis. play 1:14 Anthony Richardson runs for a 45-yard Florida TD Anthony Richardson turns on the burners and finds pay dirt to give the Gators the lead.
Also from McShay: 17. New York Jets (7-6) O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida This Jets offensive line is still very thin despite a handful of recent moves. Mekhi Becton has played one game over his past two seasons, and George Fant, Connor McGovern, Nate Herbig, Dan Feeney, Mike Remmers and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif are all free agents after 2022. Alijah Vera-Tucker -- a 2021 first-rounder -- has been very good but is out for the season because of a triceps injury. Enter Torrence, who has allowed one sack over 47 career starts. His 347-pound frame is tough to get around, and he plays a technically sound game. Not only would Torrence provide interior protection for whomever starts at QB in 2023, he'd also help spring Breece Hall (also out for the year) as an excellent run-blocker.
My concern is that the college game is too fast for AR (as far as reading defenses and reacting), and the pro game is much faster. He has some maturity issues as far as shaking off bad plays and not getting down on himself. And his running ability is not that great as far as initial burst speed or faking out tacklers. Once teams started putting a LB to spy on him, his running game was shut down for the most part. His accuracy and consistency are nowhere near NFL caliber at this point. And he seems to be somewhat injury-prone. I think he got some bad advice to go pro this early. He'll make a nice paycheck for a couple years, but I don't think an NFL team will have enough patience to see the experiment through until he succeeds. I hope he does better than that, but I wouldn't bet any money on it.
To quote Billy Beane from Moneyball, "if he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit well?" Obviously potential matters, but it's a pretty risky proposition to draft on potential for a guy whose game hasn't traditionally translated well to the pros who also struggled in college... in the first round, which is where top 3 QBs in draft cycles generally go. Richardson is a project with a ceiling of Lamar Jackson. Enough to take a chance on, but not high in the draft, maybe not even the second round.
