Electric cars?

Emmitto, he has literally been saying self-driving will be here “next year” every single year since 2013. Eight years on and we’re still not there. He’s done everything he said he would but it’s well known his timelines are completely unreliable or fanciful. He still says a $25k car is coming, just that they’re not working on it yet. Two very different things (not ever vs not yet). They still have put out their new roadster and are working with two test mule cybertrucks. I suspect once those two are closer to finalization they’ll start their work on a cheaper vehicle. But that will be several years away.

 

I’d do it at $2 if there was more infrastructure. I lease, so no home option. I’d have to rely on public facilities. Here in Fairfax they’re abundant. But they dry up fast going down 81.

 

Funny, just saw an FPL commercial that they are ready for Ev and advertising unlimited night and weekend charging… hmmm

 

Understood.

And I’m disagreeing with you regarding his forthrightness on the $25K car.

Of course it will happen, that is what tech does. But his claim was to make it happen sooner than the standard curve that would happen if Elon had never existed.

His own stated goal way back when was to stimulate the adoption of EV via a $25K car. He famously made the 3 year claim in 2018. He also famously overpromises and misses deadlines consistently.

That is either an incredible string of mistakes and incompetence, or a guy who knows how to jerk chains. It is pretty obvious to me which it is.

2023 is the latest 3 year plan. That is all but DOA.

2025 would be 3 from now. Almost also DOA since they aren’t even pursuing it.

So basically, Tesla will either have a $25K car when everyone else does, or never. I would bet on never at this point.

 

Musk is a salesman at this point. Maybe a visionary pushing the boundaries and getting things done. He hires smart people to run the show.
One can look at his personal life and judge his potential managerial abilities

 

He’s done the same thing with timelines with SpaceX though. In the grand scheme I think he overpromises for a number of reasons (doesn’t fully appreciate the difficulties, puts pressure on his teams to perform like his bankruptcy email in November, is simply terrible with time estimates, etc.). He could be full of shit like you believe but I don’t think that’s his MO. You could be right there will never be a $25k vehicle. I think they’ll come out with something like that (like apple came out with cheap iPhones eventually) but by the time it happens that $25k may be an inflation adjusted 30-35k.

 

The “cheap” iPhone is the perfect comparison. iPhone is pure luxury, and has single-handedly pushed the price of a phone to absurdity. The “cheap” one is $450. Apple itself has indeed managed to become ubiquitous, but that is quite the coup. It would be like most people driving Mercedes S-Class. Or, as it turns out, an actually available Tesla.

But Apple did indeed immediately hit lower price points to set the hook. The first one was $500, a ludicrous price in 2007. Immediately the next one went to $200, and $100 came just a model or two later. After that the creep started, and I myself did what I said I never would: paid a cool grand for a XS (using it now, and only the second smartphone I’ve owned—straight up IP5 before.) But there was indeed an early adjustment to stimulate adoption. Not cell phones as a whole of course, the iPhone specifically.

But that’s just standard marketing. Once they created all the fanboys, they did what efficiency requires: charge the maximum people will pay. Without that early adjustment, iPhone could’ve gone Betamax.

Elon has no need to do that. Let’s not forget that he started off as a billionaire. Steve Jobs had already been run out of his own company. I suppose he wasn’t nearing starvation, but he was hat in hand, comparably, for a while. Macs were a success but not the king maker. iPods were really the turning point, as the iPhone was essentially that combined with a Blackberry minus the (now obviously) caveman design.

Anyhoo, I’m not beefing with you like it may seem. And also not with Elon. I find his contributions on the whole to be an obvious net gain. Let’s just tally both credits and debits.

Or how about this: if Elon had a VP that did the exact things Elon does, he’d fire that VP quick.

 

Watched a news thing today on the testing of self driving semi. It was pretty cool all the different radars etc it had to differentiate objects and hazards. Allegedly able to scan up to a mile ahead and track 100’s of objects. It didn’t go into whether they would function in town or just interstate systems.
Fascinating technology none the less

 

And currently Tesla Autopilot is plowing into vehicles with flashing lights.

A semi behaving similarly could be a little worse.

But again, I am FOR this innovation. It will def happen, and I personally would love to be chauffeured everywhere. Can’t wait.

But the $25K car, to beat this horse, could be already done. It’s just not a priority (read: profit leader.)

 

Edibles

 

How Did Norway Become The EV Capital Of The World?

Norway has the most electric vehicles by percentage. They used tax reductions. They pay no VAT (25% for ICE). They also get free parking, free tolls, and use of bus lanes Do you think 20% off would get people attention?

 

I thought that I read recently that Tesla had decided to remove some/all radar systems from their vehicles that were used for automatic piloting? Elon Musk is a firm believer in cheap cameras, backed by neural nets and machine learning over radar/Lidar. All of these systems are pretty expensive for automobiles (save your basic cameras).

In your comparison using Apple, it is important to keep in mind that Apple got away with cheaper phones by using non-cutting edge technology on their early phones, especially in the hardware department. If Tesla were to do that now, then the cars would no longer be "Teslas", they would be Fords or Chevrolets or worse, Nissans.

I am not for or against any of it. What will be will be, but for someone to expect to ever buy a car with all of the technology that is packed into a Tesla, and still expect/demand it be a Tesla and not a....well, Nissan POS, then expecting a $25k price point is someone unrealistic to say the least.

 

its also easier to do when your population is only 5 million. Norway has a total of under 3 million passenger cars within the entire country. It would be like asking the state of Washington (2.8 million cars) to go electric.

 

I've seen these around here, and while that is a better price point, you see them here mainly from May-Septenber, maybe October. The few that use them in winter usually end up in snow drifts, or accidents. Same as the folks who thought buying a Smart car in Buffalo was a good idea. Newsflash - if your car can be blown out of it's lane by a passing snowplow it's not a good choice.

That Hyundai looks good btw...if it wasn't for the charging station thing that's reasonable at just under 40k starting for an SUV. Once the grid changes/they add more charging options you'll see more folks buying these.

Maybe start giving incentives for gas stations to install chargers, but since it looks like different cars use different chargers that could be a challenge. There needs to be more uniformity for charging.

 

Look at how much technology packages add to the cost of a Ford or Chevy. Other than leather, everything else is tech driven. Now if your car comes with those standard….
So many of the tech features are safety related that I think they should be on every car already. But the add ons

 

Agree on the fascination. Even this tech will require a human presence at all times until everything is self driving. Many, many years down the road. Some will disagree but the issue is this not ready for prime time and even if it were it wouldn't take much to bring the semi to a stop using current cars / trucks to box it in. Criminals would have a field day knowing the semi would not get aggressive.

 

They also have the resources of a first world five million population country which is what the policies were/are paid out of. If you want to argue there are not enough EVs to make the switch as quickly in the US if we adopted those policies, fine. But it’s disingenuous to use the population size argument since resources are generally proportional with first world nations when we haven’t even enacted any policies that remotely mirrors those in Norway. Should we do more? I don’t know. At some level I think we have the ball rolling but on another I can’t wait until 1) reduction of world wide oil demand reduces the power of some traditional problem states/regions, and 2) we’re not sucking in copious amounts of health destroying ultra fine particulates while driving down the road, walking on the sidewalks, etc.

 

Had a kid free afternoon so we thought we'd go electric car shopping as my wife and I have never even sat in one.

For some reason, 2 local dealers usually open every day were closed. That lead us to go visit Tesla.

The dealership was mobbed and under renovation. Didn't know you needed an online reservation for a test drive. I got to sit in a Model 3 and play with it. It seemed very nice but small even moreso than a Honda Civic.

I will head back in the near future to test drive.

 

Didn't the post office just order half a million new ice delivery vehicles?

 

I, obviously, was not consulted on that decision.