Dow futures collapsing

Just swinging by to see if Okie had updated this thread now that dow is over 40,000.
Maybe I should start a whole new thread about it and give all the credit to Biden since he took all the misplaced blame for a one day selloff that was immediately recovered.
But I won't because
1. Not a huge Biden (or Harris) fan
2. I'm smart enough to realize the president doesn't have a whole lot to do with stock markets moves in the short term.

 

I hear Louisvillegatormom is available.

 

Seems that the posts on this board by @okeechobee and @ETGator1 may be good contrarian indicators of the performance of the economy and the stock market. When they start threads bashing the market or the economy good things seem to follow.
Stock Market Today: Dow jumps 400 points at open as data push back on recession fears

 

I on the other hand like to do it and make no payments for 10 months then pay it all in the 11th month. Take that credit card vultures!

 

Hmmm, so since this thread was started, DJIA is up 1.5%. Bloodbath!

 

And just like that, all the cons have gone missing from this thread. Maybe they will show up again once Jamie Dimon issues his monthly recession prediction.

 

I remember a poster back in 2008, GreenandScaly, who was giddy every time the economy went south. Very sad to see people cheering for an economic meltdown for their political party.

 

Yeah, it's collapsed all the way down to nearing it's record highs ...

 

nailed it

 

Look bucko, just because I don't see a rate cut in September does not mean I have been predicting a recession. On the contrary, I have been praising the Fed for engineering a soft landing which is a miracle after the Biden Administration's radical and reckless over fiscal spending which was one of the culprits for the mess on isle 13 that had to be cleaned up by the Fed.

I also said the stock market couldn't fake a correction although one is needed. Stocks go up and stocks go down. If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

The economy is resilient. For a second week in a row, unemployment claims are down:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week, another sign that the job market remains resilient in the face of high interest rates.

Jobless claims dropped by 7,000 to 227,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week ups and downs, fell by 4,500 to 236,500.

The last PCE, the preferred index the Fed looks at, the PCE was 2.5% and the Core PCE which the Feds pays the most attention to was 2.6%.

If as I suspect that the US is having a soft landing, unemployment likely won't increase enough and the PCE for August which will be released on the 26th won't decline enough for a rate cut in September. Improvement as expected, but not near enough to the Fed's 2.0% target to cut the Fed rate. I could be wrong as I'm a contrarian to 90% of the opinions for a rate cut, but I'm sticking with what I see and what I think will happen. Since last July when the Feds last raised rates, I've been the contrarian on every occasion that rate cuts have been called for, so I have a good track record to date.

The unfortunate side to the soft landing rather than a mild recession is that the folks are hurting with high prices that won't come down and continue to slowly creep up further still. All of those inflationary increases stacked upon each other have continued to put stress on people and their budgets. Another prediction I have is the folks will be voting with their pocketbooks at or near the top of the list come November.

 

Amazing that we have a large chunk (Maga) of a major political party (R) in the US hoping for market downturns and cheering on Russia.

 

Not to mention turning themselves inside and out to defend a convicted felon running for President of the United States who is also a lifelong grifter and pervert, while at the same time defending a University President who was such a grifter that even his MAGA buddies on the BOT demanded he be fired.

 

More news that does not point to a rate cut:

Monthly Retail Trade - Sales Report (census.gov)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.7 billion, an increase of 1.0% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2023. Total sales for the May 2024 through July 2024 period were up 2.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2024 to June 2024 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)*.

Retail trade sales were up 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2024, and up 2.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year. Non store retailers were up 6.7 percent (±1.4 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 3.4 percent (±2.1 percent) from July 2023.

The Fed keeps getting data that suggest they should be on hold instead of cutting. Those rooting for a .5% cut will be disappointed as .25% is likely off the table too.

 

I check portfolio and balance checking account/CC every weekend. Some great run-ups in the market since this post.
Big celebration for my portfolio, haven't seen a party like this since the Matt Bevin's victory party.

 

Yeah, markets rebounded (for now) and once again I was able to cash out some at a great return because I have a basic understanding of finance and don't scream about the sky falling at a one DAY drop in the futures. HD goes up another few bucks and will sell some of that too at a ridiculous valuation, fingers crossed.
Admittedly, I am a bull market genius, it is pretty hard not to make money over the last 40 years or so that I have been investing.
I truly have no idea on the rate cut, I don't follow the markets that closely any more. From a purely personal perspective, I am fine with the rate where it is. I haven't financed anything in forever and am a net saver. It's been nice to see decent dividends every month on my money market every month instead of the 20 cents I was getting years ago (and still getting great stock appreciation).
Hell, even if we get a rate cut in september, markets might not react much if the big brains say "it was already priced in".

 

After today’s close, mkt is up 8% from your recommendation.

 

@okeechobee deserves the credit.

 

Sure has been.

I tried to buy some NvIDA on the down day sadly my Ameriprise account wouldn’t let me move money from my money market account to buy it.

 

I am on the fence of waiting for it to drop more. But considering dumping a whole lot more into OXLC.

oxlc stock - Google Search

Yield over 20% after they increased their divided a few months ago. I was eating it up under $5 when they were paying $0.08 a month. Now it is $0.09 a month.