Dow futures collapsing

The problem with the “traditional” portfolio for folks 60+!was that bond yields were near zero for a decade or more, so they were about 5% of a 2% inflation rate.

We’ve all had more equities than “normal” for a while now as a result (I was 80-90% equities until about a year ago), but have rotated to 75/25 money market (paying 5.3%)/fixed income/private real estate funds (paying 8%) to equities. Will slowly start to rebalance back to around as rates come down and likely end up back at 60% equities when there are good buying opportunities for my cash.

 

If you don't mind me asking, what age group are you in?
I think the traditional thinking on % stock for aging people is a little low given our increased life span.
I do love taking about these things.

 

Yeah, I thought it got COLA, but hadn't really looked into it. Thanks. For me, my military pension is really just a bonus. My real retirement is my civilian one, which should be far more per year. All in all... I'm in great shape unless something happens. Hopefully, I'll be like you when I grow up!

 

It's been good brother. Retiring in my 50s was the smartest thing I ever did. Still have the health to go ahead and do crazy mountain bike rides in Moab and Colorado, just got back from a week in Jackson Hole doing crazy hikes through the Tetons.

 

Don’t mind at all, I’m 64.

And you’re correct, given extended life spans traditional thinking may be a bit outdated, so if/when rates drop back to 2-3% I may very well end up 70/30 or 75/25 equities on my ratio, but not likely ever going back to 90% equities..

Why not? I think the area most overlooked for seniors is recurring cash flow, which is why I have placed an emphasis on close ended private real estate funds managed by people I know who invest in product I understand (debt or equity-I’ve been in the real estate business for decades) that pay a 6-8% coupon and likely return all of your principal + some when they liquidate (somewhat bond like in nature). Even though your money may be tied up for 5-7 years the cash flow offsets the potential bad result of having to sell something at a time the market, or an individual stock or sector, has dipped.

 

As if on cue. Markets up today pretty good, HD is down. Sure there is a reason, but nothing that concerns me.

 

Are you able to make out shapes? The shape is seasonal.

 

I mean can you?? Lmao

dude you are just ridiculous.
Hell this helps my case even more.

my goodness man turn off the bias blinders for a min.

First thIs chart only goes to 2014. Too bad as other years would also show more variance. Second, notice how only 3 really had the same pattern?
Third, how crazy as pointed out earlier 2019 was the outlier with also a very dramatic decrease right after the agreement with Mexico. Do you notice any other months with dramatic decreases like that?

Hey is the current decrease seasonal?

 

Regarding TriCare for Life...I'm rapidly approaching mandatory Medicare age (65). Even with TFL, we still have to pay for Medicare, right? TFL is the wraparound coverage in conjunction with Medicare. And then add VA medical care to the mix, and it all gets a little confusing.

 

Disney could charge 1,000 bucks a ticket for a day and it would still be packed. I think people underestimate the appeal of those parks just because they wouldn't go themselves.

 

2023
Jamie Dimon predicts potential economic 'derailment' by mid-2023 (nbcmontana.com)

2022
Jamie Dimon says economic risks 'nearer than before' in new warning (yahoo.com)

 

I go once a year to food and wine. I got a buddy who gets us in for free lol

But ya obviously there is a lot of appeal.

 

This is the problem, and the reason that it's mostly the U.S. and Japanese stock markets that are affected. It's called a "yen carry trade". It can be very profitable until the currency of the country with the investments (like the U.S.) drops relative to the country with the low-interest loans (Japan). Then it looks like gambling gone bad.

It probably has nothing to do with the current president (or V.P.). And I can't see it turning into a massive sell-off or a long-term problem, although more bad news is expected before this bottoms out. It most seriously affects people gambling on stocks with borrowed money in this scheme. For everyone else, it is a temporary blip in their investments.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/07/business/yen-carry-trade-stocks-nightcap/index.html

 

What do you suppose that is in terms of percentage of the Dow? 40-50%? Because if it's 40-50%, I'm right there with you. I suspect it's not. It's more like "cats and dogs living together . . . mass hysteria!".

 

This isn't good.

Average consumer now carries $6,329 in credit card debt. 'People are stretched,' experts says


Americans now owe a record $1.14 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday.


The average balance per consumer stands at $6,329, up 4.8% year over year, according to a separate quarterly credit industry insights report from TransUnion.

 

Well, I’m doing my part but usually below that average. I wonder how that average is determined. I use my CCs for quite a bit.and pay the balance when due. So, I’m carrying a balance at every evaluation date but it’s not rolled forward into future periods.

 

I mean, I use CC for almost everything so I can acquire points, etc.

So depending on when you take the snapshot (not sure how that works) - I could be over that, or at 0.