DeSantis v. Biden: it's happening!!! (2024 mega-thread)

Maybe, we will see. But for any shot in the general election he will need them to win, so at some point, be it early or late, he will have to shore that group up.

 

First of all, nothing really is decided until Super Tuesday. If it was, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders would have been the nominees in 2016 and 2020. The main point though is if Joe isnt running the Dems have a primary too, they arent going to want to figure that out in January/February of 2024. He's gotta either make way by mid 2023 so you can have a competitive field, or ride it out.

 

Need to factor in Trump to that election % split.

 

I don’t think he will run either - although to keep from being perceived as a lame duck, he is likely to say he is publicly while privately letting those that need to know that he won’t be running.

 

The "Crypto II: This Time its not a Scam" commercials are going to be so EPIC

 

So its a Hillary-style coronation for Ronda Santis, that usually works out

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer a young man to those two geezers, but I think Trump will be Trump unless the legal system prevents him. I do hope once Trump is jettisoned that the spineless GOP pulls back from the crazy pool. That should get me an optimistic rating......

 

Of course, he's said he's running. It would be nuts not to. He'd be a lame duck for 2 years. It's not Cortes burning boats on the beach.

 

We’ll see. He’s somehow managed to elude all efforts to bring him down to date and he should already be in prison. I hope you’re right though.

 

The Dems split state primary delegates, they are never resolved early. This is a different race on the pub side, likely a two horse race vs. a more open one back then.
But even so, Trump was clear of the field polling wise even before Iowa. And that’s how it eventually played out, even with the Iowa upset. Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia
But I guess we will see.

 

No. I don't think he will run at all. If he does, he'll easily get primaried.

 

The primaries still run concurrently, they just count the delegates different. There isnt a situation where the Dems can just decide to hold a primary in February and get people on ballots. Its not happening unless Biden literally dies. His decision wont be based on the GOP field, it will be based on him being 81 years old and being up to it or not.

 

The Republicans are never winning another national election unless some Democrats go to prison, and I don't see that happening with the weak leadership in the Republican party. Desantis folks for some reason think the left started going crazy when Trump came on the scene which is backward. Trump came on the scene because the left went crazy. Dems have already elected the worst Presidential candidate ever and a Senator who just had a stroke and can't even speak. It doesn't matter who the candidates are.

 

And Trump could be down to 30 percent approval in the pub party in a year or less, well before the primaries. My point wasn’t on the specific timing, it was that there is less risk of a lower polling candidate winning on the pub side because they don’t split delegates. In what is likely to be a two horse race, the odds of the underdog winning there are low because they can’t hold on by getting thirty or forty percent of the delegates early and surging late. So watch where Trump is polling in about a year, and it will make Biden’s decision for him.

 

I just find it hilarious that Trump still has the majority of the GOP under his thumb. Just amazing. It’s terrifying that I have to share roads with these people.

 

Well, at least confident predictions based on motivated reasoning didn't take a hit from the massive Republican +4 Senate seat result, including Walker and Oz for sure, that happened this month...