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Democrats Will Hold Senate Control

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by gatorchamps960608, Nov 11, 2022.

  1. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    It's not quite over yet.

    Just getting this straight, Nevada Democrats cheated to help Cortez Masto (potentially) win, but they didn't cheat to help the Democratic Governor win? Put down the drugs, man.
     
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  2. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    More likely than not the GOP wins the House, but it's not guaranteed yet.
     
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  3. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    ^^ serious question. May need its own thread? Dems up to 200 confirmed wins now.
     
  4. PITBOSS

    PITBOSS GC Hall of Fame

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    what’s troubling is we’ve watched elections for decades and read this board for years and nothing mentioned about widespread conspiracy. But then Dear Leader loses a election and he claims it was stolen because he mentally can’t cope. But this is expected considering his psychological issues. But, whats troubling…….,his followers only then start to parrot what Dear Leader says about widespread conspiracy. Just think about that. We’ve never heard about some big nebulous conspiracy until Dear leader said it.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
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  5. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    If GOP wins the House, it will be a very slim margin.
     
  6. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    Important to remember that the Senate has a natural Republican gerrymander, for lack of a better word, due to the small state equal representation. Political scientists estimate it at 5-6% in the average election, meaning 50 Democratic Senators usually represent around 55% of the population, on average (it varies by election).

    But an interesting fact about this election, subject to final counts. Right now Republicans are estimated to have a 4 point total advantage in the aggregate House vote. It’s usually the opposite. Democratic voters are concentrated in cities and are usually less efficient such that they usually have a 2-4 point gap to the detriment between seats and aggregate votes, i.e. 54% of votes = 50% of seats. This year that may be flipped. Republicans will likely be a majority of the House, though it will be close. But they may end up with 4% more votes.

    Waiting for final count and some analysis, because that was unexpected
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
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  7. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    As much as I'd like for the Democrats to keep the House, part of me thinks it would be kind of hilarious for the Republicans to win the House by one seat (218-217) and then watch the chaos of whatever unlucky person is made Speaker having to keep that entire group in check.
     
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  8. sflagator

    sflagator VIP Member Trusted GC Insider

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    You see the conspiracies you want to see. For example in Lauren Boebert's race she gained ground over several days.
     
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  9. sflagator

    sflagator VIP Member Trusted GC Insider

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    [​IMG]
     
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  10. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Try to have a little grace in winning. Not every post is a pissing match. There are no conspiracies I see. And I didn’t say 100% of the time the vote counts trend Democrat when they drag out for days like this. So, of course, naturally there would be exceptions. In most cases, to me, it seems to trend Democratic, but I’m not alleging any fraud.
     
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  11. sflagator

    sflagator VIP Member Trusted GC Insider

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    I'm just responding to what you post [shrug].... I'm not the one who implied something odd about extended counts. Maybe that's not what you meant but I'm certainly not the only person to get that impression.
     
  12. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Any deviance from normal can raise suspicions. As @sflagator said, there are cases that go both ways.
     
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  13. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Not what I meant.
     
  14. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Around 220 at most at this point, possibly less. No more margin of error. What a complete midterm catastrophe for the Republicans. And a complete referendum on crazy by the American public.
     
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  15. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    The problem is the state voting laws, not the people counting votes.
     
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  16. tampajack1

    tampajack1 Premium Member

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    Yes he can, but a a Republican-controlled Senate would make it difficult to get presidential appointees confirmed.
     
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  17. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

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    And it would make it nearly impossible to confirm judges.
     
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  18. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    Not a complete catastrophe; they will still control the House and have a strong say in policy if Democrats want to pass anything.
     
  19. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I’m thinking the way these races are trending, Dems are going to hold the House. I agree, epic fail for the GOP. But even bigger win for the Dems.
     
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  20. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    To be fair, he said at most 220 GOP, which leaves control up in the air. The way these counts are breaking, I’m not going to be shocked if the GOP fails to hit 218.