Crime is down, Fox viewers totally unaware

Why do you think Covid deaths and Hospitalizations were markedly less in blue states than red states?

 

The simple fact is that crime rates don't matter to people. They go by "feel," not facts. Crime has been dropping for quite awhile (despite the COVID blip in some areas), yet people believe it has been rising for quite awhile.

 

Good question. We used to go to buckhead for dinner a lot and haven’t been back in years. Wife used to shop at Phipps and Lenox mall and she won’t go there anymore. There are violent thefts. People shot and held up at gunpoint regularly there. Smash and grabs aren’t crime anymore. You can grab a handful and unless it’s $1000 it doesn’t even get a ticket. Businesses don’t even call
It in anymore. We live in a gated community with active guards and we even had a theft in last 2 weeks. In fairness the theft was construction supplies so probably an outlier. But it’s not a stretch to have overall crime statistics down but crimes increases in Wealthier areas because of the decentralization of the crimes being committed. We had a GC murdered in his truck in buckhead by a guy from
South Atlanta. Just bad timing for him as the guy was fleeing the cops and needed transportation, wrong place wrong time but that didn’t used to happen in north Atlanta

 

Violent crime in Buckhead was down in 2022. Same in 2021. Appears to be down in 2023 as far as I can find as well.

 

cool. You and your family can enjoy a nice dinner out

 

So it raises the question: given that violent crime is decreasing there, why the feeling that it is up?

 

Ok. 1. Not sure I believe that statistic. 2. If true could be the effect of the buckhead group of business leaders pushing for independence and the increase in police presence as a result. 3. Juice isn’t worth the squeeze as there are other options with less risk 4. Had a close friend who lived in buckhead followed home, blocked in his driveway and robbed at gunpoint. I’ve been in Atlanta since 2001. Lived in buckhead. Loved it. That kind of thing didn’t happen before. Not trying to convince anyone else what to do or think with that information. Just what our family did and does with it.

 

not trying to derail thread with COVID talk. Just that in retrospect a lot of what we were told just wasn’t accurate. That’s all. We have all paid the price including shutting down society and resulting consequences.

 

no. My response was IF and I stated it was a hypothesis. Unlike you I never pretend my opinions are facts. Lastly yes, you got me… I do not want equality of crime from hood to burbs. That’s not an unreasonable statement. Only a hardened ideologue would argue otherwise. You be you.

 

It apparently did happen. If violent crime was higher, and it appears to have been, then there were more violent crimes.

This is how social contagion convinces people of danger. It is interesting how, even when presented with data, there is usually resistance to the data based on feelings.

 

A lot of stuff wasnt known and some stuff actually changed. There are tradeoffs in life. We could have had no shut downs no masking and no vaccine mandates. Maybe we lose another million lives. That’s a tradeoff. With crime there is a tradeoff of aggressive law enforcement and incarceration. With unrestricted gun ownership there is a tradeoff between the right to do so and school shootings and other gun violence - maybe 30,000 lives a year.

We can argue that we don’t like the tradeoff or want the balance to go one way or the other but you have to recognize the price for such tradeoffs.

 

I have a partial theory, though I'm not sure it explains the polling about perceptions assuming the polling cuts across age groups.

When we were young, we felt invincible. It's the same reason young men often drive way too fast or take crazy risks that we wouldn't today. With age, we developed a more realistic view of how one bad decision can ruin or even end our lives or the lives of others. Testosterone levels start declining at some point, too. As we age, physical strength and speed decrease, making us feel like we can't fight our way out of situations we could when we were younger. I think all of this makes us more sensitive to risks, including the risk of potential violence. I think this is why older folks used to tell us that nothing good happens after midnight (out in public at least). Nothing wrong with being more cautious as we age, but it can develop into a paranoia, which isn't healthy either.

 

well I have a lifetime of differing conclusive data about the same information so this wouldn’t be the first time. And as far as your attempt to passively insult my differing opinion hidden in ‘feelings’ that’s fine. As the resident libertarian, I will continue to filter information from all Different sources and make decisions that I conclude are best for my family. Feel free to do the same for yours.

 

To be fair, perhaps you, but definitely others, argued in the past crime didn’t actually increase. Now you/they are saying it decreased after an increase.

A quarterly YOY comparison does not demonstrate crime is at all time lows.

 

Okay, what was the violent crime rate in Buckhead in 1995? Since you have "a lifetime of differing conclusive data," that should be an easy question to answer, as it certainly falls into the time period of a lifetime of data. If that is a tough question to answer, that would suggest that you are substituting feelings for data. And claiming that feelings are data.

BTW, opinions and feelings are often not distinct. But if you are claiming to have differing conclusive data, not feelings, you need to provide this data. Not your feelings.

 

I don’t think it is helpful to try to tell people their lived experience is wrong. Crime did increase during and after Covid. I think it may have actually started to tick upward before Covid. Now crime seems to be trending back down but not yet back to previous lows. It probably is true that the trend for any given area is not the same.

This is one of the reasons why democrats are struggling against republicans even though most people hate MAGA and they hate severe abortion restrictions. It is because Democrats won’t acknowledge voters lived experience, in terms of inflation, crime, etc and try to beat them down with cherry picked stats.

 

How are the stats "cherry picked?" The overall crime stats were presented, showing a decline. He presented a hypothesis of rising subsets of crime utilizing a specific geographic subset, a subset he chose, not me. I then provided the stats for that area for the last three years, which is basically the totality of time after Covid.

What do you suggest as an alternative to confronting false impressions? Ignoring them and allowing them to remain conventional wisdom, even if they are untrue? Passing legislation based on them? What is the alternative to confronting these false impressions?

 

I am speaking to the totality of the arguments I’ve seen over the past few years.

Previously, murders went up around Covid, a lot, but then others would say other crimes didn’t go up as much, and or said the increase is insignificant vs what it was 30 years ago. Now Citi shows a quarter over quarter decrease for total crime, which is relevant but it is incomplete, then shows a long term trend of property crime.

 

That data includes total crime, violent crime, murder rates, and property crime. It is the decrease from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023.

This is an important question: what is the proper way to deal with the fact that people feel like crime is increasing when it objectively isn't?