Coronavirus - International stories and thoughts

To be fair, that is without mitigation. If Americans stick to the plan, it can probably be held back considerably (although, still with death at an awful level). The first problem is that I don't know that we can stick to it long enough to make it happen. The second problem is one that hasn't gotten much play yet and that is the mental health issues that are likely to be associated.

 

Care to elaborate?

 

Doh!
The U.S. health-care system? The Norwegian University of Science and Technology clearly isn’t impressed, so it’s urging students studying there to come home immediately.

Norwegian university urges students to return home from the U.S., cites ‘poorly developed health services’

 

1.1 million deaths in US and UK at low end. As noted by mdgator05, there were a lot of presumption of limited to no mitigation in parts of the modeling. But still

 

Ah ok. I thought you meant that was their current model even with steps taken. Thanks!

 

This is just nuts with Italy's death rate. Having a shortage of critical beds and the jokes about everyone in their 30s and 40s living in with Grandma there cant explain those numbers.

They would have to be only testing people literally falling to the ground when they arrive at the hospital and a ton of their population has had this stuff to have that death %.

 

It’s hard to interpret, except that things will be bad

 

The full British report (pdf warning).

Aside from the large numbers they predict, the most troubling part is that they are predicting the peak to not be until late May or early June. With the best case scenario slowing the spread so the peak isn't until the end of June.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

 

Coronavirus death toll in Italy's Lombardy jumps 319 in a day: sources

 

The us and Canada announced a mutual border closing for tourism and recreation.
This was handled much better than the European closing, we did this in conjunction with our Canadian partners, had a joint announcement, and appeared to be aligned.

 

Wow....I wonder what the Germans are doing right.
10,249 cases and only 27 deaths?

Moreover, these numbers from China don't make any sense.
If 5 million or more traveled out of Wuhan for the Chinese New Year
that should mean even more and more exposure and total deaths.

 

cant speak to China, but so far less than 100 of the German cases have officially recovered, so expect that number to rise.

it’s also why expecting lower death rates based on more testing may only be an offset - of the 208k cases worldwide only 82k have officially recovered. There will be more deaths in that group.

 

Uncounted among coronavirus victims, deaths sweep through Italy's nursing homes

Says there are not counting deaths outside of hospital.

 

Which is why China claiming 65,614 recoveries after 80,894 cases is totally ludicrous.
Those percentages don't pan out and the Chinese do a lot of traveling apart from their New Year's celebration.
As usual they are just being deceitful.

 

The contrast to what Germany reports and Italy reports is crazy. Both rising really fast but Germany keeps reporting hardly any deaths and hardly any people critical (suspect imo) while Italy in contrast is reporting most new cases being critical. I guess it could be due to a ton of Italians having this and only the worst ones getting treated but Germany reporting they are virtually critical free with that many reported cases just doesn't pass muster.

 

My daughter is still on California time, but didn’t sleep last night after reading this and the 18 month timeframe

 

Here is Kevin Drum graphing most of the Western democracies against the Italian curve. France and Germany are pretty much following the Italian curve. Rain isSpain is far worse; US slightly worse.Sweden, Switzerland and UK all seem to be doing better

Coronavirus growth in Western countries: March 17 update

 

Warm beer and sauerkraut?

Perhaps pasta and vino facilitate the spread of the virus?

 

You may laugh at this...but it's a completely accurate contrast between these two cultures.
Italians are stubborn people who don't respond well to authorities telling them what to do.
When they speak to each other they get right in your face and breathe the air you breathe.
On the other hand, Germans respect authority figures and follow rules and regulations.
They keep respectful distances between themselves.