Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

120,000 cases today. Triple a month ago. We are doing so well. Just kicking the virus into oblivion.

 

STOP THE TESTING!!!!

 

I remember when someone accused me of having a death wish when I predicted a 100k/day by election day. Just knew what the death cult was capable of.

 

they still going.. death will come...

 

Holy smokes.

It suggests to me the possibility that self-report surveys about personal mitigation efforts probably suffer from some validity issues.

And if true, I would suspect that people are telling surveyors the reality they imagine not the reality they live.

 

Talk to me when you're sober

Not about testing. What I was getting at is a comment that @tilly made several days about surveys where people self-reported high levels of personal mitigation such as almost always wearing their masks when out in public, social distancing etc.

I tend to think these types of self-report surveys might have some issues with recall and/or the truth. Not lying per se but not accurately reporting how vigilant they are in wearing masks and social distancing. Some of it might be bad recall and people forgetting what can be the many times that they weren't vigilant. Bad recall and a lack of truthfulness are a common concerns in surveying self-reported behaviors.

Also so is subject reactivity. Humans have a tendency to tell a surveyor what he thinks the surveyor wants to hear or hide what might not be socially acceptable behaviors or thoughts.

 

We could have 500K positives a day with the PCR tests being 40. If you guys want to worry about those go ahead. Just look at hospitalizations. Only reliable numbers that we can accurately use.

 

This is not the wino you are looking for

 

Alright then

 

Just for persective, 120,000 cases in one day is 15,000 more cases than Japan as had ... TOTAL.

 

Democrats like a good crisis, especially when the crisis will eventually resolve itself and they can take credit for solving it (even though they worked on something completely different than the actual crisis the whole time). I'm thinking that Pelosi is planning on taking charge of Biden's domestic agenda just like she took charge of Obama's. Obama had a sudden realization that Obamacare would save the economy and prevent economic disaster, while keeping 42 million poor people out of emergency rooms and saving most Americans $2500 a year as they kept their doctors. It would have been a brilliant success, if any of that was true. Expect Biden to have a sudden realization that Universal Health Care could be the cure to coronavirus. The only thing that could slow down this train is if the democrats don't win both houses of Congress. Biden just needs to start off by appointing Rahm Emmanuel his "Don't Let a Crisis Go To Waste" Secretary.

I'm sure that Biden will have marginally more success fighting coronavirus than Trump, but resolving it is really on the people, not the president. And the hard-core Trump supporters are more likely to do the opposite of what Biden asks them to do. Biden's best strategy for red states might be in coercing governors (e.g., threatening to take away highway funds) to take the lead on requiring mask wearing and social distancing, bar closures, economic restrictions, etc.

Taiwan, population 20+ million, just hit 200 days (OVER SIX MONTHS!) without a domestically transmitted coronavirus case. And they still have international flights, including flights to and from China. They also have multiple cities with populations over a million people. Let that sink in for a while. The U.S. has over 100,000 cases per day, while Taiwan essentially has had zero for six months. Americans are just too stupid to deal with a contagious disease (or select capable candidates for the presidency).

Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic COVID-19 infection

 

Was it you who made a bet with someone that the daily number would exceed 100,000 by now?

 

That was Buckeye trying to bet me because I'd said we could be seeing 100k cases a day soon. I didn't bet him because I'm not going to bet on stuff like that. But needless to say, he would have lost that bet.

 

It's just simple math, which also indicated that we'd peak this week at ~130k, and next week at 170-180k. That's what 30% weekly growth does. I don't know why it's so hard for some ppl to get, enough to willing to bet you for it.

All these worries about Republican states not being on board, for better or for worse (mostly for worse), I do t think you need to worry. By the end of the month, there'll be lockdowns practically everywhere there's a major population center. Why? Because hospitals will start to get overwhelmed.

Right now, COVID for most people is just numbers. Less than 3% of the population has caught it, far fewer have died from it. They won't personally feel the impact until hospitals can no longer take patients because they're too full, and believe me, that time is coming, it's coming within a month, and this time it'll hit the red states hard.

Don't get me wrong, this will be bad for the whole country, and the blue states will suffer greatly as well, but it won't be the discrepancy you saw with the March to May wave.

Why red states? Less precautions, less doctors/hospitals, less experience, and less money. This time it also won't have to spread from the coastal states, it'll start right from within.

Check my post from May, I've always been more concerned about this winter wave than the initial wave. If you wanna know what 1918 was like, you'll see first hand starting within a month. Hang on tight, and brace for impact.

 

More tests = more deaths?