Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

gator95 · Oct 29, 2020

Callouts to suicides or attempted suicides in London double in a year

Suicides up significantly in London. Skews towards younger people. Lockdowns a much greater risk to anyone under 50 than Covid. Need to have a different solution.

tilly · Oct 29, 2020

RIP said: ↑

Navy doesn't seem to be like that.
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I agree.

buckeyegator · Oct 29, 2020

Is that like the guy in " the graduate" telling Dustin Hoffman " plastics"?

GatorGuyDallas said: ↑

Numbers
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NavyGator93 · Oct 29, 2020

Biden trying to appeal to people to do the right thing. Apparently, Trump carried 80% of evangelical Christians in 2016, wonder if that number will remain at that level.

Biden appeals to Christian voters: Wear masks to 'love our neighbors as ourselves'

dangolegators · Oct 29, 2020

G8R8U2 said: ↑

Coronavirus US: More than 40 states are reporting an increase in Covid-19 cases and many in the Midwest are seeing record hospitalizations - CNN

Mask mandates lower hospitalizations, study says
Mask mandates may be a key strategy to lowering rates of hospitalization, according to the findings of a study from Vanderbilt School of Medicine.

In hospitals where more than 75% of the patients came from counties that required masks, rates of hospitalizations did not rise between July and October, while hospitals with fewer than 25% of patients from those counties saw an increase over 200%.
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I think this gets to the point that masks not only reduce transmission, they reduce the viral load where transmission does occur.

NavyGator93 · Oct 29, 2020

G8R8U2 said: ↑

Coronavirus US: More than 40 states are reporting an increase in Covid-19 cases and many in the Midwest are seeing record hospitalizations - CNN

Mask mandates lower hospitalizations, study says
Mask mandates may be a key strategy to lowering rates of hospitalization, according to the findings of a study from Vanderbilt School of Medicine.

In hospitals where more than 75% of the patients came from counties that required masks, rates of hospitalizations did not rise between July and October, while hospitals with fewer than 25% of patients from those counties saw an increase over 200%.
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How can 40 states have an increase in covid cases when Trump admin ended the pandemic?
Seems fishy. Should I believe the serial liar or the thousands being hospitalized and dying?

GatorFanCF · Oct 29, 2020

Went to my nephew’s wedding in Tennessee. 120+ people, dancing, most not wearing masks. My wife and I tested this week = both negative.

My sister, who is super mask wearing, won’t go to restaurant careful tested positive. Anectodly, another friend of mine and his two children and spouse all caught corona - and they are the most risk adverse folks I know in Florida: masks all the time, no social gathering, no restaurants, etc. Cest la vie.

EDIT: Does alcohol prevent the corona? Asking for a friend.

philnotfil · Oct 29, 2020

COVID-19 Outbreak at an Overnight Summer School ...

During July 2–August 11, 2020, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred at a boys’ overnight summer school retreat in Wisconsin. The retreat included 152 high school-aged boys, counselors, and staff members from 21 states and territories and two foreign countries. All attendees were required to provide documentation of either a positive serologic test result* within the past 3 months or a negative reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests result for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) ≤7 days before travel, to self-quarantine within their households for 7 days before travel, and to wear masks during travel. On July 15, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (WDHS) began an investigation after being notified that two students at the retreat had received positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results. WDHS offered RT-PCR testing to attendees on July 28 and serologic testing on August 5 and 6. Seventy-eight (51%) attendees received positive RT-PCR results (confirmed cases), and 38 (25%) met clinical criteria for COVID-19 without a positive RT-PCR result (probable cases). By the end of the retreat, 118 (78%) persons had received a positive serologic test result. Among 24 attendees with a documented positive serologic test result before the retreat, all received negative RT-PCR results. After RT-PCR testing on July 28, WDHS recommended that remaining susceptible persons (asymptomatic and with negative RT-PCR test results) quarantine from other students and staff members at the retreat. Recommended end dates for isolation or quarantine were based on established guidance (1,2) and determined in coordination with CDC. All attendees were cleared for interstate and commercial air travel to return home on August 11. This outbreak investigation documented rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, likely from a single student, among adolescents and young adults in a congregate setting. Mitigation plans that include prearrival quarantine and testing, cohorting, symptom monitoring, early identification and isolation of cases, mask use, enhanced hygiene and disinfection practices, and maximal outdoor programming are necessary to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in these settings (3,4).
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Extensive and rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred at an overnight retreat where adolescents and young adults aged 14–24 years had prolonged contact and shared sleeping quarters. A single student, who received a negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test result <1 week before the retreat and experienced symptoms 1 day after arriving, was the likely source of introduction, resulting in infection of 76% of attendees. Similar rapid spread has been described among younger children in overnight camps (6,7) and adults in congregate settings (8,9).
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At least one confirmed case occurred in every dormitory room and yurt (Supplementary Figure, https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/95625). Attack rates did not differ significantly among counselors and students, dormitories and yurts, or grade levels (Table 2). All four staff members received negative RT-PCR test results; one staff member (an emergency medical technician) was classified as having a probable case. To comply with the retreat’s attendance requirements, 24 (16%) attendees provided documentation of a positive serology results before the retreat. All 24 received negative RT-PCR results. Six (25%) experienced mild symptoms at the retreat but were not classified as having confirmed or probable COVID-19. Excluding the 24 attendees with previous positive serologic results, the COVID-19 attack rate on the remaining susceptible population was 91% (116 of 128). One (1.2%) of 78 persons with a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test result was asymptomatic. All illnesses were mild to moderate, and no hospitalizations or deaths occurred.
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An important feature of this outbreak was that 24 attendees had documented evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 before arrival. None of these persons received a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test result at the retreat. Evidence to date is insufficient to determine whether the presence of detectable antibodies indicates protective immunity¶ or how long such immunity might persist. The absence of RT-PCR–confirmed infections among persons with previous positive serology results suggests that some protective effect was present, given the high attack rate observed at the retreat.
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dangolegators · Oct 29, 2020

91k new cases today according to Worldometer.

RIP · Oct 29, 2020

Holy smokes.

buckeyegator · Oct 29, 2020

Also almost 1.5million tests,so as we know more tests equals more positives.

dangolegators said: ↑

91k new cases today according to Worldometer.
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RIP · Oct 30, 2020

buckeyegator said: ↑

Also almost 1.5million tests,so as we know more tests equals more positives.
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Well yeah. But those numbers would exist no matter how many you test. The numbers are going up because it is spreading.

G8trGr8t · Oct 30, 2020

buckeyegator said: ↑

Also almost 1.5million tests,so as we know more tests equals more positives.
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more cases drive the demand for more tests. if fewer people were suspected of being infected testing would go down

exiledgator · Oct 30, 2020

buckeyegator said: ↑

Also almost 1.5million tests,so as we know more tests equals more positives.
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Just stop it. Stop. Please. Stop.

Positivity rates of tests are going up. We're not seeing more positives just because we're testing more.

We're testing more and that's showing that the virus is spreading.

Stop being the problem. Start working on a solution.

mutz87 · Oct 30, 2020

If you've got 35 minutes, here's a wonderful interview with Nicholas Christakis, Yale Sociology and internal medicine professor.

Should be mandatory listening for some of our friends here.

Some choice quotes:

One of the arguments that I like to make about epidemics is that it's almost in the nature of epidemics that denial and lies about the - about what's happening is itself almost an intrinsic part of an epidemic, that in other words, everywhere you see the spread of germs for the last few thousand years, you see right behind it the spread of lies. And partly, that's because the person on the street wants to deny what's happening. And partly, it's because our political leaders don't want to take it seriously either. But it's their job to do so.
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DAVIES: In the book, you cite a statistic. You say that if 70% of the public had begun wearing masks early on, it could prevent a large-scale outbreak of this pathogen. True? I mean, if we'd gotten on this and gotten really behind it early?

CHRISTAKIS: Yeah. So I think what's important to understand about this pathogen or about epidemics in general is that no single intervention is typically enough to stop an epidemic. And what I - the way I like to think about this and the way many epidemiologists think about this is something known as the Swiss cheese model. So imagine you have pieces of Swiss cheese that you're stacking up, and each of them has some holes in it. And they're random pieces of Swiss cheese, like you're making a sandwich and you're piling up pieces of Swiss cheese.

If each piece of Swiss cheese represents a defense, a layer of defense - for example, one piece is wearing masks, and another piece is closing schools, and another piece is banning gatherings, and another piece is washing your hands, and another piece is, you know, restricting travel or something. If each of those pieces represents some intervention and each of the holes is sort of randomly positioned in each slice, by the time you stacked up two or three or four slices, none of the holes overlap. And so a virus can't get through. It can't penetrate all the layers of defenses. So if you just use masks, you stop a lot of viral transmission, but you don't completely stop the epidemic. You also need to do something else.
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The president's adviser, Scott Atlas, has been associated with the idea that the U.S. could achieve herd immunity, you know, without a vaccine, that letting it spread may be the best and safest and quickest course to getting back to normal. Is this a workable idea?

CHRISTAKIS: It's an idea. There is such a thing as herd immunity. Herd immunity is when a large-enough fraction of a population have acquired immunity to the condition, either naturally because they got infected or by vaccination, such that when that large-enough fraction is infected, even unimmunized people get protection. And the gist of the idea is that, look, if the virus has a certain level of contagion and if half the people are immune to it, even if someone by dumb luck were to somehow get infected, they couldn't find anyone to spread it to because many of the people around them would be immune. And as a result, the epidemic would peter out.

And herd immunity is the natural end to epidemics. You know, prior to the invention of vaccines, this is what typically would happen. The virus would spread and spread until some certain fraction of people were infected and - which varied by different germs, have different levels that are required for herd immunity. And once that was reached, then the virus became what is known as endemic. It was still there, but it wasn't - didn't have the same power to cause, you know, a lot of death in an epidemic fashion. So that's what herd immunity is. And so the question is, is that a rational strategy to shoot for? And I don't think the answer to that is yes. I think we can do better than that.

We have better means to prevent death among ourselves now, whether using nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread of the pathogen and give us time to invent and deploy methods to preserve our lives or most importantly, to invent a vaccine because that is a safe exit from the current crisis. The reason we're flattening the curve right now, the reason we're engaging in masking and physical distancing and all the other stuff is to buy time so that we can invent a vaccine. And therefore, we can have herd immunity through vaccination, not through, you know, natural acquisition of infection and immunity.

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buckeyegator · Oct 30, 2020

91,000 out of almost 1.5 million tests is a little over 6%,overall national average is about 6.75%,,so as bad as it looks still below average.

96Gatorcise · Oct 30, 2020

Brain Scans Show a Whole Spectrum of COVID-19 Abnormalities We Can't Fully Explain

History will show this to be the start point of the zombie apocalypse, if there is a history to record....

mutz87 · Oct 30, 2020

96Gatorcise said: ↑

Brain Scans Show a Whole Spectrum of COVID-19 Abnormalities We Can't Fully Explain

History will show this to be the start point of the zombie apocalypse, if there is a history to record....
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A bunch of countries in Asia will be around to record it, mocumentary style

(my how far we've fallen as a country)

On a more serious note, these types of findings should give the covid ain't bad crowd some pause. It won't, but it should.

rivergator · Oct 30, 2020

(CNN)Daily Covid-19 cases in the US reached a record high on Thursday, with experts warning that death rates could triple by mid-January.

There were 88,521 new cases of the coronavirus reported in the US on October 29, according to data from Johns Hopkins University -- 9,540 more cases than Wednesday.
In total, there have been 8,944,934 cases and at least 228,656 deaths in the US -- 971 of them on Thursday, JHU data shows.
"This is the hardest point in this pandemic right now -- the next two months," Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Thursday. "We can't give up our guard right now."
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US coronavirus cases hit record daily high and experts warn daily death rates will triple by mid-January - CNN

OklahomaGator · Oct 30, 2020

The Friday morning update from world o meter as of 8 am EDT.

There were 8 states with a decrease in active cases over the last 2 days, led by Florida and Georgia again.

The state with the highest recovery rate is Alabama at 95.69% and the worst recovery rate is Maryland at 5.68%. You have to question if Maryland and Rhode Island, 8.64%, are tracking recovered cases.

There were just 2 states with 1-4 deaths and 3 states with 0 deaths over the last two days.

The death rate per reported case continues to decrease. It is down to 2.542%. The highest death rate is New Jersey at 6.88% and the lowest is Alaska at 0.53%.

The most deaths in a state is New York with 33,643 and the lowest is Vermont with just 58 deaths.

I quit posting the graphs until the server upgrade is finished and the process becomes easier.

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