Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

If coming to conclusions after looking at data is wrong I don’t want to be right. Look at the CDC survival rates. It’s a not a significant virus for the under 50 crowd. Sure, some people will post the one offs but those are outliers. It sounds like you know that and just feel like arguing.

 

Hawaiin airlines partnered with a vault health to give saliva test results in 48 hours (you pay for overnight shipping) for $150. Looks like anybody can get testing done regardless if you ahve any business with Hawaiin airlines

Hawaiian Airlines COVID-19 Testing via Vault Health

Hawaii is going to open Oct 15 with negative test within 72 hours. Kauai mayor just said not so fast. Bring your negative test, quarantine at resort (complete with electronic tracking bracelet) for 72 hours, get another negative test and then mahalo.

Costa Rica opening up to US . 72 hour test, buy health insurance for time in Costa Rica. Insurance companies they recommend are going to make a bundle. Think I'll pass on that

We wanted to visit Kauai again late November, cant take that 72 hour quarantine on 8 day trip. We ended up booking San Diego for a week in late November. Never been there before. Joshua Tree, Balboa Park, some kelp diving, some walking tours, train up to Santa Barbara and back. That should fill up a week.

Alaska Airlines starting direct service from LAX to Ft. Myers. Odd route but happy to have it. I'm thinking it must be LA money and Naples/Marco/Sanibel

 

Daughter showed me Instagram clips from Gainesville yesterday. Bars packed, not a mask in sight.

 

Ugh. That’s what led to summer spike in fla

 

She was home in sw Florida. She can't believe how cavalier people are. She is/was the 4'11" mask nazi at her store.

 

I saw that also in Gainesville, it was a great sight. I'm glad seeing people enjoying themselves

 

Last I heard from the WHO Roger said he won't get fooled again.

 

Is he the new boss or the old boss?

 

I hear it's the same

 

Coronavirus in the US: Only 3 states decline in new cases as US hits highest daily rate in 2 months - CNN

 

And as of 7pm today only 31,000 new cases, so as you see today is almost 25,000 less than the last 2 days, each day is different.

 

That’s a great point, we should probably use a 7 day rolling average instead!

 

This is a perfect example of why so many people readily dismiss the virus. We're basically running about 200 deaths more per day than we did at the end of June after the entire economy was shut down for two months plus. The 7-day moving average of deaths have been in steady, albeit slow, decline for the past two months straight. Yet there has been no shortage of panic click bait running in the MSM.

Long story short, the new case count is pointless if 98% of the new cases aren't resulting in at least hospitalization. It's like pointing out how quickly the cold virus is spreading in wintertime. The numbers that matter are hospitalizations and deaths. Both have been in decline for over two months straight now. And we're barely above where we were after cratering the economy for an entire quarter.

Take a gander at Kentucky's death chart though. What do we see? Ahh yes, the 7-day average is ever so slightly moving UP and is higher than it was in April. Why? Two main reasons: there was never a large outbreak here initially when this finally showed up on everybody's radar in March and we shut down. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, it reflects the strict controls the governor has put in place since March that have apparently done nothing but prolong the inevitable. Which is exactly what the shutdown did. Sure, it may have provided some cover for hospitals and doctors to get their heads wrapped around this outbreak, but in terms of viral control, it simply delayed the inevitable.

Less people are dying though, because we've had longer for trial and error. So, you could still make a decent argument in favor of the initial shut down in March. Arguing for more stringent controls now that would cause any harm to the economy is not only pointless, but actually quite dangerous and you would STILL be delaying the inevitable. Honestly, we may have handled it just about as well as we could have.

But Kentucky is an interesting case study, because we didn't re-open guns blazing and we've mitigated the spread, but it seems to have only prolonged the inevitable. While more time may help doctors and hospitals, it too causes other health issues, mental and physical, along with economic distress.

The panic articles are dumb, though. New cases are virtually meaningless at this point. Curbing the death rate and finding a vaccine should be the first priorities.

 

Took a nice little hike at the Begley Nature Center, which is on our campus here in town. Fall colors are full on.

 

4.7% positivity rate across all 50 states but several states are headed in the wrong direction.

 

The North Shore is beautiful this time of year.

 

"Sure, it may have provided some cover for hospitals and doctors to get their heads wrapped around this outbreak..." which resulted in a plummeting death rate. That alone is a pretty good justification for the lockdowns, don't you think? I don't know why you dismiss less people dying as if it's just a fringe benefit. That's literally the number one objective. We're having more infections than the first peak and opening up with still 2000+ less deaths each and every single day. Do you think that's not important? Is having 2000+ less dead Americans each day while opening up the economy not at least somewhat of a success? I would think that a plan that has accomplished its top objective wouldn't be viewed by any objective eyes as a failure.

With that said, I do agree with you that given the fruits borne of the initial lockdown (i.e. improvements in treatment, successful stocking of PPEs, etc.) that the benefit of further lockdowns is questionable given the known adverse effects. We need to remain vigilant and take the appropriate precautions (i.e. social distancing, mask-wearing, etc.), but at the current death rate it doesn't seem to me that a strict lockdown is appropriate.

 

As a cautionary tale, Israel opened up completely but then went into a second lock-down because cases shot through the roof.

I think there is more to this than deaths. This is also simply about the spread of disease. Our political and public health leadership have a moral imperative to protect the public health and that includes against sickness from infectious disease.

 

Well, I stated clearly that deaths and hospitalizations are the only numbers that matter. I think new case numbers are almost meaningless, because for the past few months, a vast majority of "new cases" have been in very low risk categories. That's why the number of hospitalizations and deaths can be 1/3rd of what they were in April, yet new cases be much higher. I also stated that we may have gotten it right just about as well as we could have with the initial shut down, given the time it gave doctors and hospitals to react.

I think that social distancing and mask wearing in public make sense. I am skeptical that arbitrary and feckless lock downs that are currently in place (ie restaurant capacity is 50% tops in my state) are really doing much good. The economic adverse impact appears to be much greater. Even if Kentucky experienced a spike in new cases, we're now well positioned to treat those cases. Businesses are taking a beating.

And back to my original point about my state. We seem to be delaying the inevitable. You could make the case for doing that in April, but now, not so much. As a few others here, Rand Paul and myself have argued, the northeast states have very subdued new case numbers, mostly likely from a partial herd immunity. There is no chance the people who just happen to reside in those states are washing their hands way more, wearing masks way more, etc. I haven't seen a single soul in public without a mask here for months. It's simply run its course in those NE states, because they had a severe initial outbreak. Similar to what we've seen in Florida.

The virus, while highly contagious, has also proven to be manageable in other countries. The United States lag because we're Americans and we are a social people. That said, I see no actual evidence that letting things open up full throttle would lead to mass graves. And yes, 750 a day is too many deaths, but compared to other diseases, it's not worse and we move on with our lives with those.

How long do you keep kids secluded, businesses distressed and some lives ruined for something that is clearly manageable now? Biden has hinted at more lock downs, yet he offers no specifics. I think the media need to start asking. It could have major ramifications, no matter which side of this you're on.