Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

so what were the 7 day averages from july 1 to august 15 when there were no days below 50,000? alot higher than now i venture to guess, some will never be happy even as numbers drop.

 

it is about the character of the man and his ability to respect others or act rationally. core problems, not issues. when that many people that he chose to be that close to the situation tell us they he is unfit to serve and a risk to the democracy we need to listen. that isn't something that gets said by members of your administration often, let alone multiple times from high ranking people that were in the room.

 

July 1: 45,324
August 15: 53,841

Then it dropped until September 12. Now it has risen a bit again.

 

The Japan study was preliminary and finished in May. The one I posted was more comprehensive and published in July.

 

he's trying to say that if you suck bad enough, winning once every once in a while is still winning. we had record high numbers in the 60's - 70's per day, not only plodding along in the 40's (when sub 10 is goal) so we are winning.

 

My study proves that there is herd immunity. There isn’t any debate on that. Now maybe because the Japanese are as a country healthier than us that contributed to their low hospitalizations, who knows the why. But that study shows they had a significant portion of their population get it and have no ill effects. So it wasn’t masks or social distancing for the reason Japan didn’t get hit hard.

 

Viral load may be a factor in seriousness of the disease. While much of Japan is densely populated, the culture favors social distancing practices. Handshakes and hugs are not common. In addition, masks are worn every winter and adoption rates are high. There's also a theory that a vaccine for tuberculosis given in some Asian countries, but not in the US, could play a factor.

Still, with all this, Japan did see an increase in cases in August, which strained their hospitals.

 

They have been lauded as handling the Covid outbreak very well. When in reality they had a lot of people infected. That isn’t debatable. Now, why they seem to have very few deaths can be discussed. But saying they socially distanced but also had high rates of infection are contradictory to each other.

 

another of the i won't be happy until only 1 case a day crowd.

 

I will feel much better when we are under 10,000, the threshold set as end of phase 1 of the pandemic

 

Your basing your conclusion about the number of Japanese cases on one, small-scale test that has not been verified by a larger study. Small scale tests can be skewed by a few numbers, which is why they need verification.

If you look at the World-o-Meter numbers, Japan had a small outbreak March-May. Early in the pandemic, and the virus likely spread before serious actions to slow the spread took place. Also not the time Japanese generally wear masks, which is usually in the winter. But in April, there were mask mandates, social distancing, and contact tracing, and lo and behold, the numbers went down. Until late June.

Not sure what happened in late June through August, but the virus spread, peaking in late July. First, having a peak this high, and months after initial cases highly suggests the cross-immunity theory holds little to no water. Second, the reason why deaths are lower is because by July, we knew a lot more about the disease and how best to treat it compared to March and April. Had, for example, the outbreak in New York hit in July, there likely would have been less deaths because we would have better treatment knowledge.

As for the peak, hard to find reasons why it happened, but found one article on why it was suggested cases fell back down. Japan re-instituted more social distancing and behavior rules in late July.

 

Man, that’s a lot of mental gymnastics to explain away a study. Also, they studied those people from 11 different locations so it’s not isolated at all. It’s ok to admit that Japan might’ve had an area hit immunity. So many excuses as to why it happened. All I know is it did happen and it happened in Qatar as well. I posted that study as well.

 

Ok, that's a little better. But your analysis is faulty if you are trying to show the effect of the holiday weekends on covid cases. Prior to July 4, we were already seeing a big increase in cases. The 7 day average increased from about 38,000 on June 27 to 50,500 on July 4. So there was already a big upswing in cases occurring before the holiday and that just continued. For Labor Day, cases in the prior week were declining slightly. Cases continued to decline for about 5 days after Labor Day and then started increasing slightly after that. So you can't compare the effect of the 2 holidays very easily because of what was occurring in the weeks prior to the holidays. Cases were rising quickly prior to July 4 and that momentum continued after the holiday. Cases were slowly coming down before Labor day and that momentum actually stopped and reversed itself slightly.

 

I would be happy if we could just get back to late May levels. But nationally we'd have to cut new cases in half to get there and that's not happening. And in Florida we'd have to reduce cases by about 70% to get there and that isn't happening either.

 

spin, spin, spin

 

Is there a point you’re trying to make here?

 

Likely? Assuming this SCOTUS nomination gets shoehorned in before the election, I'd love to hear how you could possibly justify voting for such a morally bankrupt conman. If you do pull the lever for that man, good luck looking yourself in the mirror as an outspoken follower of Christ.

 

yeah, that we in the usa are not stupid, post labor day numbers 35% lower than post july 4th, so i guess we can be taught to do something right after all, do we get a cookie as a treat?

 

Updated CDC survival rates from Covid. I know, let’s shut down the country again! Just let those numbers sink in. Anyone over 70 needs to take precautions and wear masks and socially distance from people. Everyone else should be resuming normal activities and wear masks when you are indoors around people. Thank god the Gators are playing tomorrow.