Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Yeah, what happened in late March? Oh, right, a nationwide shutdown. So then the elderly don't get the care that's needed and many many excess deaths occur. Alzheimer's and dementia deaths have skyrocketed. I guess that's just random...

Deaths are now below the historical averages in September.

 

So mark you down as a supporter of select a few random geographic areas out of all geographic areas based on a selection criteria of fitting your desired outcome as a better method than peer-reviewed statistical models with all of the data? Because that is the position you are taking here. We have evidence both at state and country levels of mask effectiveness in cutting spread rates.

 

Sure. That's all that happened in March.

 

Where did Tilly say masks don't work? Just pointing out they don't work like some magical power to stop it completely. Stop arguing to argue. Sorry those charts didn't listen to your "peer-reviewed" models LOL. Did Ferguson do that model LOL.

 

Nobody has argued they stop spread completely. They slow it to allow other mitigation techniques to be more effective. You really show how little you know about contagious diseases on a daily basis here.

I bring scientific models (in this case, peer-reviewed already and published in a reputable journal). You bring things from Clay Travis and Gummi Bear on Twitter. I'll go ahead and let people decide who brings better sources of information.

 

Yeah, your boy Neil Ferguson. Great modeler. I mean he's awesome. I'll stick with facts over your BS models. Sorry they didn't align with your "peer reviewed" hot garbage. I know it pisses you off knowing I'm right. Sucks for you.

 

You don't even know the difference between a predictive model and a statistical model of existing empirical data. That is unsurprising given your difficulty in figuring out what a 7-day moving average was, but it is a bit sad.

You haven't pointed out a single methodological, data, or theoretical error in the paper or the underlying statistical analysis. Your inability to do so betrays the fact that your level of analysis is "I don't like results. They don't fit my argument."

Okay, let us know when Gummi Bear gets the Nobel Prize and proves your genius right.

 

Schools in Florida are now on their 6th week of in person schooling(at least in my county). No increase in cases in Florida. Good news.

 

So you didn't even read my post then? Gotcha.

Start with:

I went on to say that the dropoff should be MORE if the effectiveness was as high as some people say. I mean seriously, just take a minute and read the whole post.

 

Man, someone is upset those graphs don't follow your "peer reviewed" models LOL. Keep fighting the good fight chief. Hop back in there and defend Ferguson some more. Sorry, maybe you can have some of your "scientist" friends manipulate the data on those graphs to fit your peer reviewed data. I'm still waiting for Florida to blow up with cases since we are now on week 6 of school. Have one of your boys doctor up some graphs for us.

 

Yes, you have this game of saying "I support X" and then following it with "But here is why X is wrong."

On the point that you are trying to make, you are assuming universal heavy mask usage because you use a mask and the people you associate with use masks. But there is variance in mask wearing and it is associated with variance in infection rates. That is what the empirical models show us. Is that correlation = 1? No. But nobody argued that.

 

And NY's mortality rate is 4x that of Florida (even with their economically crushing shutdown).

New York hasn't hardly opened back up, that's why their rates are still low.
It's a choice, not have many infections: to do so you must be massively shut down or
limit infections with highest risk for a bad outcome in more severe isolations (and don't crush the economy so most everyone can support themselves.

 

Clay Travis and Gummi Bear on Twitter versus scientists with expertise in epidemiology, medicine, and statistics. I choose to listen to the scientists. Who do you choose to listen to?

 

Yeah, those same scientists who said to lock down like Ferguson LOL. Sorry those graphs ruined your "peer reviewed" models. Oops. Always know i've won when you attack the sources. Graph was real data and you hate it. Tough luck, better luck next time.

 

It's sad I spoke with him many times when he brought patients to the ER over the years.

 

Do Americans Understand How Badly They’re Doing?

I mean I remember a lot of posters here saying France and most of Europe(not Sweden, they bad) beat back Covid because of hard lockdowns and masks. Look at this awesome article in July. Might want to look at todays graph.





I'm sure this is wrong because of the "peer reviewed" models that MD's scientist friends have come out with LOL. BTW, their cases right now equate to about the US's max daily cases announced.

 

The hilarity is that you are attacking scientists as sources because you need to get Gummi Bear on Twitter over as a good source of info. So by your own logic, doesn't that mean that you have lost? Internal consistency for the win.

I feel pretty comfortable relying upon experts in the field and their peer reviewed research. I will gladly contrast that with Gummi Bear and Clay Travis as a source on epidemiology. The scientists might not always tell you what you want to hear, but then again, that isn't their job. Unfortunately, a number of people start with what they want to hear and search out sources until they find somebody who will tell them what they want to hear. That is how we get sports shouters and randos on Twitter as sources put up against actual experts.

 

Even if on the surface the mask usage looks good people are doing the "under the nose" thing. My MIL (who is 73 and going stir crazy) had a hippo of a woman get really close to her at Publix while wearing the mask improperly. People suck.

 

yeah, those experts have been awesome! Great job with the forecasting models and great job with shutting down the global economy. Good effort! Keep carrying their water! But most of the US is now seeing thru the BS and going about their lives. Good for them.

 

CDC is finally catching up and advising that covid is spread bey aerosol...only 5 months late..remember when the CDC was the gold standard for infectious disease worldwide?

The CDC says coronavirus is airborne and spread by aerosols, warns of poorly ventilated spaces

For months, scientists and public health experts have warned of mounting evidence that the novel coronavirus is airborne, transmitted through tiny droplets called aerosols that linger in the air much longer than the larger globs that come from coughing or sneezing.

Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention agrees. The CDC recently changed its official guidance to note that aerosols are “thought to be the main way the virus spreads” and to warn that poorly ventilated indoor spaces are particularly dangerous.

“There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet (for example, during choir practice, in restaurants, or in fitness classes),” the agency stated. “In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk.”
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The World Health Organization recognized the threat of aerosols in July, after hundreds of scientists urged the international body to address airborne spread. It’s not clear why the CDC finally followed; Jimenez said high-ranking CDC officials were still arguing publicly against airborne transmission as a major vector as recently as late August.