Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Florida is an interesting case study. I think it supports the idea that the virus hits a wall and fizzles out. I think the virus is highly contagious among a certain segment of the population and not so much with others. As I've pointed out with NY and NJ, Florida have cut its new case daily rate down by 80%. It's not as if Floridians have become 5 times more careful. The virus runs its course and finds its hosts. There are a limited number of suitors and so it fizzles pretty quickly after the spike. The graph I posted above.. that's a virus hitting the wall.

 

The wall that the virus is hitting is awareness: people are wearing masks and social distancing. Yes, of course people are becoming more careful. More and more people are wearing masks, and more and more businesses are requiring them to do so. Delta has banned passenger #240 for refusing to wear a mask, for example. I think the virus is contagious among all segments of the population, with some people never showing symptoms.

Look at the counties in Florida that are having increases in infections: Gainesville and Tallahassee. What do those places have in common? Hmmm. College towns with irresponsible college kids returning to school, partying and socializing. It looks like behavior is deciding where outbreaks are occurring. The virus is not hitting a wall on college campuses.

 

An interesting new theory about how the coronavirus is attacking people with severe reactions to it.

A supercomputer found a promising theory about why COVID-19 cases go downhill fast. It even explains the bizarre range of symptoms.

 

147 new cases in G'ville today. 11% positivity rating. trending up the last few days
COVID-19: 147 new Alachua County cases Sunday

 

Oh no, not Cuomo again ,I thought he walked on water.

 

I saw this. Apparently a chemical basis for the cardiovascular consequences of infection for some. The gasping etc. is less about pneumonia and more about cardiovascular causes. Sometimes. Scary to figure out the differences.

 

Good thing it is contagious!

 

What is the R0 for covid?

 

As long as you ignore the regions that were hit hard in March and April and also hit hard in June and July, the virus appears to run its course and fizzle out.

Unfortunately, we have areas that were hit hard in March and April and also hit hard in June and July, indicating that the hypothesis is incorrect.

 

Not at all. If it didn't infect enough of their population to make it run it's course the first go around. It's why Sweden is doing better than other countries in Europe now. They let it run thru their mostly less vulnerable part of their population and now are doing much better than most of the rest of Europe. Look at the cases in most of Europe going up but Sweden isn't. Theory is they have hit some form of herd immunity.

 

I'm not in Florida, but just going by some of the posts here back in May and June, I believe a lot of people were wearing masks then. I think the masks are overrated. I believe people began co-mingling again and among those susceptible to infection, it's highly contagious. I refuse to believe Floridians became 5 times more careful in the past few weeks. Just like in the northeast. It runs its course and then it fizzles. A more than 80% decrease in new cases in a matter of weeks is not the result of awareness solely.

 

More evidence of mask effectiveness. The two states that are leading the growth in cases per capita right now are N. Dakota and S. Dakota. Both states have very lax mask mandates, if any.

In a few weeks, after an indoor rally in Tulsa, OK with few wearing masks, there was a jump in cases. Yesterday, in Henderson (Vegas), NV, Trump held another indoor rally with only a few mask wearers. We should track cases in NV. Bet there's a jump in the next two weeks.

 

Less testing

 

Spain has a 50% higher infection rate. Why was Spain not protected from a second wave in August?

Israel has double Sweden's infection rate. Why is Israel experiencing a huge new wave now?

Chile and Peru have almost 3 times Sweden's infection rate, why aren't they seeing any herd immunity?

 

Spain shut down, Sweden didn't. Maybe that didn't let the virus run it's course. Don't know enough about South America to make a comment.

 

Masks might be effective to some degree, but if anyone thinks we're beating this with masks, they're kidding themselves. It will either fizzle out on its own or we'll get an effective vaccine. Both ND and SD still have relatively low per capita rates even with their smaller populations.

 

But how would they have so much higher infection rates if the virus has a deterministic "course?"

 

Spain has a higher infection rate than Sweden.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, what do you mean by "run it's course"?

 

Trump and followers don’t like facts and statistics. Tip - watch something besides fox.


COVID-19: Scientists decry White House meddling in CDC publication

 

It's never stopped you before.