Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Unless we get hospital overcrowding, which sounds like a major issue in certain places once again, specifically Florida. Hoping for the best.

 

The death rate may continue to drop. But I think the number of daily deaths is likely to rise in July, especially in Florida. If we continue to add 10k new cases per day in FL, just a 1% death rate would give us about 100 deaths per day. Hope I'm wrong, but the case count has risen so much, the cumulative effect of that is bound to catch up with us.

 

Unusual story.... seems atypical.

Nick Cordero, Broadway actor, dies at 41 after battle with Covid-19


(CNN)Nick Cordero, a Broadway actor who had admirers across the world rallying for his recovery, has died after a battle with Covid-19, according to his wife, Amanda Kloots.

He was 41.

According to Kloots, Cordero was initially hospitalized in March at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles.

She shared on social media that Cordero spent some time on a ventilator, suffered multiple Covid-19 complications and in April had to have his leg amputated.

 

To this very moment, 30 million have contracted COVID-19 per CDC. That means the death rate is roughly .44%. We could argue that number is a best guess, but it's all we have. For every person saying not all deaths are being counted (not everyone dies in a hospital), there are also those dying and getting labeled with COVID-19 without a test, and the contracted population is a best guess. We really have no idea how many have had COVID19 and may never know. That's not much different in every flu season where we guess at how many have contracted the flu. The only exact numbers we have are the number of positive cases and those that end up hospitalized. That's why in the 2009 pandemic the range of deaths were between 8,000 and 18,000 with a mean of 12,000. We couldn't even get a good number then with a virus that had easy tracking and identification so it shows really how difficult this one is in tracing and tracking numbers. That's why the number of cases is between 3,000,000 and 30,000,000.

The only good number we can look at is # of hospitalized. We can use that number to compare to past flu outbreaks and predict future spikes. We are also coming up with new treatments like the new one where they transfuse the blood through a machine that oxygenates the blood essentially acting as an artificial lung. Ventilators are short-term solutions not long-term and they have shown to weaken a person because their lungs are in such bad shape, the ventilator is only damaging them further. So why not remove the lungs from the equation and oxygenate them artificially?

 

Nick Cordero dies after COVID-19 battle; Broadway star was 41

He was also in a coma for over a month

 

Younger person. But, he lost the percentages. Tragic. Which is why the lauded “spread through young people is good and what a great job the Trump led GOP is doing” is so wrong. Rolling the dice with lives and health.

 

You are comparing known cause of death to an estimate of spread which may or may not be accurate. Btw: how does that .44% figure you concede work out with spread to 70% of the country for “herd immunity?”

 

Zero deaths in Virginia today for the first time since I think April 5th (other than one day we didn’t report).
Amazing what happens when masks are required indoors and people follow the rules generally.
That said, as we open back up I would expect some backsliding...but when you start from zero deaths and a low case count it’s a much more palatable prospect.

 

Harvard just announced online instruction only for the coming school year. They will apparently open campus housing for one class at a time (rumored to be freshmen in the fall and seniors in the spring), but all instruction is online. The elite schools started the dominoes falling in March. Be interesting to see if we have a, likely slower moving, rerun as we approach fall.

 

Sounds like a great deal. $50k for zoom classes. Cue Good Will Hunting theme...

 

Just an initial breach in the wall. Soon the floodgates will probably open and most, if not all major colleges will be online.

 

All the right wingers painting rosy pictures of a spreading pandemic. While the rest of the advanced countries in the world drive numbers down and reopen. A rosy picture of incompetence. We even had a post today celebrating the great work of Trump and mocking democrats. What a low bar for competence.

 

The people who get into the top schools are probably better suited to learn without having to be in a class.
In the end, a semester or two online won't matter to the elite schools, they will still have a degree said says Harvard or whatever. As long as they are taking a good major, that will be worth something.

 

Monday reports are always low because, for many states, they are Sunday's data. Tuesday tends to be the big jump.

 

70% of kids at Harvard are on financial aid of some kind. That’s a lot of cash to blow on a zoom class. And regardless of what people say, zoom classes aren’t the same as in person. Would think Harvard being so progressive would offer a discount.

 

Harvard is also a leader in online learning and teaching. They have been doing very high quality online classes in a number of disciplines for years in graduate education. I have known a few people that have taught there over the years. The expectation for their professors in the MBA program, for example, is that you know the name and background of every student (where they have worked, where they want to work, their educational background, etc.) in your class so you know exactly who to call on for complicated questions. That expectation was just as true in their online program as their in-person program. They won't just be using zoom to go over a set of slides in a lecture. They will have professionally produced videos, tons of online tools, and a lot of individual attention.

 

Not sure where you got those death rates, per the world o meter Germany has about a 4.6% mortality rate and the US is about 4.5%

How is USA death rate 4x that of Germany?


Also with all the asymptomatic cases do you think the other countries are testing as many people for antibodies as we are? I don't.