Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Fair point, but not this Saturday. The holiday will almost certainly impact reporting. It has since the beginning. My point was no need for the victory lap for the number in the 200’s when its clearly not complete data.

 

Georgia's testing sites have nothing to do with death counts. We are discussing deaths.

 

so then the weekly total for April 18 is 16k and then the weekly total for the week ending June 27th was 313? That is a crazy drop.

 

Totally agree...but I remember some taking a victory lap the other way when the Wednesday after Memorial Day spiked and folks claiming the second round was upon us. (I am being dramatic, but you know what I mean.)

 

Right and deaths are down and cases are up. I mean... those two things aren’t even debatable right?

 

Ok, if Georgia is shutting down testing for the holiday what makes you think the people responsible for relaying number of deaths were scheduled to work this Saturday?

 

I've erroneously been using Rt and r0 interchangeably recently. My bad. I will go back and edit. A quick primer... r0 is an attribute of the virus and how infectious it is absent any community response. For covid-19, it's somewhere around 2. That means, without any action, every infected person will pass it on to 2 people.

Rt is the actual retransmission rate given the level of community response, in the same "pass-it-on" units. The Rt is what health agencies try to reduce via quarantine, distancing, masks, etc. Get the Rt below 1 and maintain procedures, the virus will flame out.

Below are the Rt by state as of yesterday. My state of Georgia is around 1.14. How's your state doing.




Rt COVID-19

 

Read your own link.

The data for that week is likely incomplete. The data on the link says it at least 3 times as far as I saw.

 

I have no idea what any of this means.

Am I the only dummy in this place?

 

I'm unsure how to answer that!



Where did I lose you?

 

why are you fighting that deaths are down 90%? Just to be “that guy”? The week before is down 90% also as is the last 2 weeks. Deaths have dropped for 10 straight weeks. That’s a good thing.

 

And well outside of the 2 week window.

 

Because it isn't true. Why do you need to exaggerate effects that are actually happening to make yourself feel good (i.e., we are actually down about 75%)?

 

i think it’s totally fair to be happy about fewer deaths and concerned about huge spike in cases simultaneously

 

Aha! This video has a much better explanation than mine.

 

Math gets tricky like that.

 

R0, or "R naught", is an abstract figure for the reproduction of a pathogen. Basically, how infectious it is. Generally speaking, if Patient A has it, how many people will they infect on average in a population where no one has immunity and nothing is being done to slow it down, ignoring any environmental factors. So an R naught of 2 means that a person would infect two others on average. Getting a number below 1 means that the pathogen will die off as it infects less and less people.

There are other factors that define infection with different underlying premises.

Measles has a reproduction factor of between 12 and 18, for example.

 

So now we are making excuses for death totals? We are actually down 92.4% from the high since you want to get picky. But keep saying the numbers aren’t real. I know some here will believe you.

 

How do you calculate that, taking into account weekly reporting variation and the fact that the last 2 weeks are not complete reports in CDC data? Show your work.

 

United States Coronavirus: 2,964,127 Cases and 132,469 Deaths - Worldometer

They show 254 for yesterday. April 21st high was 2,749 deaths. Sorry that so few people died yesterday of Covid19.