Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Your guess isn't worth squat. No on is saying NY did a great job with the nursing homes, but still the percentage of nursing home-linked deaths in NY is much lower than it is in Florida. The NY nursing home thing has been your one talking point for the last couple of months. But the facts don't back it up.

 

Sure, when you fudge the numbers NY looks great. Keep on believing that garbage. I dated Erin Andrews in college. See how easy it is to make up some shit? That’s what NY is doing.

 

Death rates from 6 weeks ago would track people infected 10-12 weeks ago. This was the height of the NY/NJ infectious period.

Death rates are also going down due to increased testing. But if we're testing 20% more, but death rates remain stable or only slightly drop, this is bad news. It means we're finding more cases we weren't finding before, but more people are dying.

It's statistics. Out of a population of 10000, if there are 1000 active cases and only 500 tests given, if 20% come back positive, then 400 cases would go undetected. Say there are 5 deaths, then the death rate per positive would be 5%.

But say you do 2000 tests and get a 15% positive rate. There are still 200 undetected cases, but your positive test rate fell. Say there are 10 deaths, and your death rate would also fall to 3% of positives, despite the fact that twice as many people died!

This scenario also shows why deaths are under counted. In the first scenario, there is likely 5 deaths due to COVID that are unconfirmed but expected.

Death rates may not be the best indicator because we are testing more. Total deaths would be a more accurate lagging indicator. Total cases are going up in several states now. It's likely, the death total will unfortunately follow.

 

Okay, so lets say they are only reporting half the deaths in nursing homes. Even if we double their number, they still did better than us.

I have a hard time believing they were off by that much, but even if they were, they still beat us by 10 percentage points.

 

so, florida with about 1/3 the cases of new york has 1/10 the number deaths, but hey, new york is doing great now.

 

How about WHO THE F CARES?!?! This isnt Florida/Georgia trash talk on game day. You’re debating who did a better job killing less innocent people than the other. There are no winners here. Please, both sides stop already. This is embarrassing.

 

Well, yeah, compared to FL, NY is doing great now. Florida is nearing 10x the number of new cases that NY has.

 

it could 3/4 times the number. This is what happens when you make up numbers. No one knows. But to think NY did way better than NJ by doing the same thing is foolish. The only fact we know is Ny fudged the numbers. So i guess we wait until Cuomo comes out and states the true numbers(LOl, never happening).

 

Lowest Saturday deaths since March 21st.

 

You really think they are going to be able to get away with hiding 15,000 deaths?

 

This x1000.

 

Workers removed thousands of social distancing stickers before Trump’s Tulsa rally, according to video and a person familiar with the set-up

Trump and his campaign are pathetic. November 3rd Vote

“As part of its safety plan, arena management had purchased 12,000 do-not-sit stickers for Trump’s rally, intended to keep people apart by leaving open seats between attendees. On the day of the rally, event staff had already affixed them on nearly every other seat in the arena when Trump’s campaign told event management to stop and then began removing the stickers, hours before the president’s arrival, according to a person familiar with the event who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.

In a video clip obtained by The Washington Post, two men — one in a suit and one wearing a badge and a face mask — can be seen pulling stickers off seats in a section of the arena. It is unclear who those two men are. When Trump took the stage on Saturday evening, the crowd was clustered together and attendees were not leaving empty seats between themselves.

The actions by Trump’s campaign were first reported Friday by Billboard Magazine. As rally preparations were underway, Trump’s campaign staff intervened with the venue manager, ASM Global, and told them to stop labeling seats in this way, Doug Thornton, executive vice president of ASM Global, told the magazine.”

 

Get away with? No. But do I think they are trying? Yes

 

but just wait 6 weeks from now.

 

@dingyibvs (an actual medical doctor) told you when to expect things to increase. Keep being intentionally obtuse if you want to.

 

Hospitalizations in Texas have risen from 1,511 on Memorial Day to 5,523 today. For those convinced rising case counts shouldn’t be too worrisome because it’s young people, the facts just don’t support that thinking.

My wife’s hospital is now offering an extra $16 an hour to nurses that will work extra shifts. Small sign, but indicative of the manpower problem that we are feeling here.

And Trump won’t use the totally free bully pulpit to encourage mask use. And his campaign will pull social distancing stickers from seats in Tulsa before the rally.

Trump supporters that don’t see the intentional dereliction of duty are just selling their souls to worship at the alter of Trump.

November 3rd Vote

 

Has he addressed that the average age of infected has dropped almost 30 years? Because that will affect the death rate significantly more than anything else.

 

Actually here was his exact post and yes it included the average age of infected going down.

 

I don’t expect the number to get close to where we were at our peak, but you think the same people continually propping up Georgia and Texas as “proof” that opening was the right thing because cases were stable would have learned at a minimum to keep quiet until the process cycles through.

 

Agreed. Since younger people are getting it I don't think it will even get close to the numbers when NY/NJ were peaking.