Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

if they needed the assistance, why was the tent complex in central park never used, why was the medical ship used for about 5% of capacity, you do not want to answer why we wasted resources, money and manpower for non-used bed space.

 

This expert puts the number at likely 10-15% higher, so that would be somewhere around 600-900 extra deaths. So you could increase the number by about 3% or so, just to be generous. So that would make the numbers about 24%.

Extent of COVID-19 Carnage in NY Nursing Homes Not Known

Heck, double the upper end of his estimate and it would be up to about 27%. You have to argue unsupportable numbers to change the basic nature of the relationship he showed with the data.

 

the death rate 6 weeks ago was 5.7%, today it is less than 5%, so, all those infected 6 weeks ago, should they not be driving the death rate up, not down 6 weeks later?

 

Because when they asked for resources, they didn’t know what the top of the curve and numbers would be. You can’t look back afterward and say that they were not fully needed when they asked. Because in March and April they didn’t know where the growth curve would stop ant they needed to be prepared. They used the tents and they were using the ship, which was originally intended for non COVID overflow. The reason they ended up not being used is because the mitigation efforts stopped the growth in time.

 

Much of that has to do with a shift in the curve, where a growing percentage of the cases haven't been resolved. Similar to the initial takeoff. The nature of analysis changes depending on whether you are in takeoff or stable or declining.

 

The link was an opinion piece citing “estimates” from unidentified sources. And in the New York Post.

 

no, he said it was likely in 4-6 weeks death rates would go up. i pointed out they are down from 4-6 weeks ago, the same time frame his is using to state they will go up.

 

@dingyibvs explained this this morning on one of these threads. Read his analysis. Try reading it. Meanwhile, hospitalizations are up; at capacity in Houston, and close in Arizona. Up in Florida. So people are getting seriously sick on higher members now. Do you measure that as a positive?

 

Let me use a simple example to demonstrate the issue:

Let's say that 4-6 weeks ago, the mixture of cases was 100 resolved cases and 20 news cases. So let's say 5% of resolved cases and 1% of new cases ended up dead. Expected deaths: 5.2 or 4.33%.

Now, let's say that the mixture is 120 resolved cases and 60 new cases. Same rates of death. Expected deaths: 6.6 or 3.67%.

When you have a higher proportion of new cases, the percentage of the overall cases that have ended in death is going to decline.

 

6 weeks ago, there was a high death rate in New York and New Jersey, which is now in significant decline from where it was. Your examination of gross totals proves nothing.

 

is there a actual site that shows the hospitalization rate over time for both country and individual states?would like to be able to compare hospitalization rise and fall vs death rate rise and fall, in other words, are more hospitalzed people not dying today vs 6 weeks ago.

 

As we learn, More hospitalized people are recovering. That is the good news. Ventilators are a true last resort now. Hospitalizations are hard to track in places like Florida, where the state has been caught lying. Links from media tracking is posted in the thread there.
How many are sick and how sick are they? Here’s the South Florida COVID-19 hospitalization data the state won’t show you.
Houston ICU capacity could soon be exceeded as COVID-19 hospitalizations worsen, TMC projects
COVID Hospitalizations Surge Across the Valley

 

Death rate is #deaths/#cases. Deaths can go up but the death rate can go down if the #cases is increasing faster than #deaths.

Similarly, death can go down but the death rate can go up if the #cases is decreasing faster than the #deaths. This is what we saw through the first few weeks of May, when daily deaths continued to decline while the death rate continued to climb until it peaked on 5/21. What we're seeing right now is the opposite.

 

How are you holding up at the hospital?

 

I'd love a source that isn't extreme right wing trash.

 

He fits the facts and data to his agenda. Nothing is going to knock him off that agenda.

 

Political tussle continues over COVID-19 deaths at N.Y. nursing homes

Cuomo feels heat as New York's nursing home COVID-19 death data remains incomplete | Fox News

I can keep going. Hey, look over here at Florida! Don’t look at NY!

 

By how much do you think the NY numbers are off? 10%? 20%? 50%

 

I honestly don’t know but my guess is they are close to the other states that put Covid19+ patients back into nursing homes. But it’s downright a joke to trot out some garbage saying NY did a great job with regard to nursing homes.