Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Exponential growth started. But, at the low end of the bell curve. , The dramatic spike takes more time. So factor in a 2 week period before symptoms followed by mild symptoms, then the person gets sick enough to realize the need to get tested, then time for the results to come back. and then several days to get the results. Then multiplying growth. Btw: nice run on sentence, right?

 

Exactly, we have to keep in mind that whatever happened today, it actually started 2-4 weeks ago; we haven't seen the real wreckage yet... as depressing as that is to concede.

 

so if nothing major happens in 2 weeks, well shoot,lets give it 2 more, and 2 more, and 2 more, and maybe something might happen, but of course if your wrong, will you admit it?

 

21 out of the last 22 days there have been less than 1,000 deaths a day. so, how far back are you going to go to show when this massive upturn in daily deaths is going to start?do we go back 4, 5, 6 weeks and say that's when people infected then should be dying now?

 

I tend to agree, but we're back to that game of do we doubt science or accept it? These are the nation's leading health experts saying this. Even if the current count is the more accurate figure, I think we're too far gone for another shut down to do more good than harm. As long as grocery stores, Home Depot and Lowe's are open, with half of people not wearing masks (as was the case in the 1st shut down), with 1.5 million active (probably more), it's still gonna spread quite a bit.

Reminds me of a video somebody posted (may have been on this site), in China they had drones following people around in the streets, putting people on blast if someone didn't have a mask on. We just didn't take it seriously enough in the beginning and now it's most likely too late. And when I say "we", I'm talking about "we the people".. not the government. The government gave us the guidelines. They just didn't send drones out to heckle us when we failed to heed.

 

All I am saying is why don't we wait to see? Why count chickens before they hatch? We know it's spreading faster. Logic dictates that will lead to higher death tolls in the weeks to come.

 

See my recent post: Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Three day fatality count more than doubled from the previous interval. I hope the trend does not persist, but fatalities are up.

 

It's likely going to go up. My hospital now has more than double the number of admitted COVID patients as during the previous peak, and it's the same in the surrounding areas as well. It may be more young folks these days, but it won't be long before they transmit to the older folks either.

Who's everyone? I for one said 4-6 weeks. In fact, I recall giving a more detailed explanation. First you see a slow down in the rate of decrease, which happened in mid-late May, and we know what happened 2-3 weeks before that. Then you see a period of fairly steady cases, and finally you see an steady increase in cases. The whole process should take at least 4-6 weeks.

Every major intervention should see results reflected in a change in direction in the 2nd derivative of graph in 2-3 weeks, which eventually result in a change in the 1st derivative in 4-6 weeks.

We saw this we we started the lockdown as well. Lockdowns started in mid-late March, and by early April, 2-3 weeks later, our rate of growth began to slow. This is followed by another couple weeks of relatively steady number of cases. By about 6 weeks after the lockdown, in late April to early May, we started seeing a decrease in the number of cases. If all the states acted in unison, we'd probably see the trend react quicker, closer to 4 weeks than 6 weeks.

Deaths will follow about 2 weeks after the new cases, so expect a clear trend of rapid increase in deaths beginning next week.

 

Yeah, we've been seeing around 230-270 deaths per week in Florida for the past 4 weeks or so. I'd guess in about 2 or 3 weeks we will see that number increase to 700-1000 deaths per week. That's just based on a quadrupling in cases in the last 3 weeks. I think we can expect deaths to rise at a similar ratio.

 

My wife switched from working in ICU (burn) to a centralized patient placement center for multiple hospitals in her chain. The beds are filling up. She’s got a birds eye view.

Folks can hope, but infection growth increases ICU bed occupancy and the mortality follows.

As some point out, more of the spike appears to be the young, but with all this growth some is in vulnerable populations; which is why beds are filling up.

For the life of me I can’t understand why we don’t have mandatory masks anywhere there is any growth in cases. Just make it for indoors in public places and we save lives. The leadership failure on this single issue is maddening.

And we are still half assing it on testing and tracing relative to what a motivated federal government could have had up and running by now; particularly given all the available unemployed manpower.

November 3rd Vote

 

Easy to say when you are not a doctor, nurse or EMT working the front lines.

 

If this pandemic has taught us anything, it is that the ignorance, and pride taken at being ignorant, by a large section of the American public will be the down fall of this country.

 

Wrong about what? What are you relooking about? We have had exponential growth now for two weeks. You don’t wait for two weeks and say, “damn, we should have done something.” Doesn’t work they way. And it is notable here that you look at a level 6 times what it was two weeks ago, and insist on your argument that the virus is declining.

 

They is why leaders need to lead. Not follow.

 

Thanks!

 

Because you miss the point - according to Trump conservatives. You are weighing the risk of mass spread and loss of lives due to over run hospitals and failure to protect the susceptible (testing/tracing/ppe) against asking everyone to wear ppe, respect the social contracts of social distancing, participate in testing and tracing.

The Trump conservatives are characterizing encouraging safety as either an attempt to steal their freedom (thought they were folks who encouraged personal responsibility?) or an attempt to damage Republicans politically. Nothing like putting a health/science issue under a politicized light?

Of course, if "being careful while reopening" proponents are wrong, the price is the cost of ppe/testing and the "other side" mocking them as scared. If the "live your life b/c this is a hoax" Trump conservatives are wrong we get many more deaths, over run hospitals, and them saying "do not politicize this." Again.

 

I've put a lot of thought into how a large portion of our country could be so ignorant/foolish on this whole pandemic. Because it is maddening. Ultimately I think it comes down to how incredibly politically divided this country is, and how some will stop at nothing to not allow the "other side" to be correct on an issue.

 

You really think it’s that much of a political driven decision? I think it could be but seems like it’s personality driven. I can’t quite put my finger on it. I have some liberal friends who were going to the bars and some heavy Trumper buddies who went to a movie theater the other day. There are a lot of people who don’t follow the news, so I don’t know.
For me, pretty much on lock down...everything gets shipped to our door.