Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Maybe it was someone else then. My apologies. I agree that when we get these states under control it will look better. I'd like to actually start seeing these states do something before getting optimistic (looking at you DeSantis).

 

which is what we said when NY/NJ were the hot spots.
The bottom line is that there will be large outbreaks as long as we don’t have strict social distancing and gathering rules. Other states are only a matter of time. The question to ask is whether it’s worth it.

 

We’re not focusing on that half of the picture because it doesn’t matter. Shelter in place was supposed to reduce cases to a manageable number so we could safely reopen. Yes, you are correct, with half assed testing efforts two months ago we were identifying 20,000 new cases a day out of likely many more. However, we shut down and damaged the economy to significantly reduce the cases. If we’re still at 30,000 a day, that hasn’t been significantly reduced. There are still 30,000 new cases a day out there and then some to be identified and we opened anyway. If we doubled the testing but dramatically reduced the cases, we should not be identifying that many more daily even with increased testing. The reason we don’t pay attention that that half of the info is because that explanation doesn’t get us to a lower number. The cases are still out there. Well never know a true growth rate relative to previous month, but if we hadn’t half assed our shut down efforts there wouldn’t still be 30,000 new cases a day no matter how many tests were performed.

 

A visual representation of that as a strategy:

 

according to worldometer today 638,863 new tests. 33,388 new positives, a 5.25%, again below the national average of 8.7%. with 573 deaths, continuing the downwards trend, i come up with a 5.20 overall death ratio.my guess is about a week or so to we average 1 million tests a day.

 

My reading of experts says 200,000 dead citizens by Halloween. Hope they are wrong. Certain our guesses won’t matter.

 

Younger people have always gotten it.

 

thye have, but their relative percentages are going up because they are the ones going to bars, beaches etc as they open up. Those at risk are staying home.

 

Someone call Louisville. His account is getting hacked as we speak.

 

Here are the three day increases. Takeaways: New world cases hit half a million during a three-day period for the first time. World fatalities continue to be high. U.S. cases are increasing (yes, partially due to testing). U.S. fatalities are down overall, but the rate of decrease seems to have slowed.

Increases
Date.......world cases.....world deaths.....U.S. cases.....U.S. deaths
May3........255,940............14,061...............93,006...........4,731
May6........258,072............16,907...............75,063...........6,212
May9........278,941............15,389...............84,217...........5,238
May12......239,189............12,376...............61,327...........3,388
May15......284,608............15,658...............75,649...........5,082
May18......266,271............11,660...............66,009...........3,474
May21…....303,083……….....14,472………........70,608…….......4,373
May24…....303,683……….....12,072………........65,534…….......2,946
May27…....291,339…….....…10,756………........59,367…….......2,807
May30…....364,906…….....…13,454………........71,017…….......3,450
June2……...324,528…….....…11,316………........64,385…….......2,502
June5……...365,955……….....15,934………........84,503…….......3,331
June8……...349,307…….....…10,486………........60,785…….......1,665
June11…...395,623…….....…15,077………........63,208…….......2,979
June14…...394,966…….....…11,489………........72,527…….......1,824
June17…...416,062…….....…16,082………........72,243…….......2,083
June20…...513,453….....……15,422…….....…...96,107…….......2,039

 

“Continuing the downward trend” sound 100 times better than “just” and still gets the facts and your point across.
Thanks.

 

Where’s that at?

 

Seward Highway
Alaska
Week 1
Flickr album here
Alaska 2020

Humpbacks up at head of Reseurrection Bay. Tourists are the minority.

Will update flickr album when we can. Halibut fishing today. Whale watch, glacier kayak tomorrow.

 

Thank you, enjoy and be well.

 

While I acknowledge there is an increase in spread, I don't have a problem with businesses re-opening, restaurants and bars re-opening. If people feel the need to protest, they should be allowed to, so long as they are not breaking the law in doing so. If people want to go to a Trump rally, church, or wherever there are other people present, they should be allowed to. I have said all along the shut down was a waste, because it was a band-aid and the people of this country will not let themselves be caged in for very long. All we did is prolong the spread a bit, as the numbers are clearly showing. Sure, it gave us some time to catch up on testing and vaccine research, but when you look at the economic devastation, government spending and subsequent fallout, it was a waste.

And if you think social unrest is bad now, that people are going full on loon (ie taking characters out of kid's cartoons), just wait if they actually did decide to shut it down again. The people of this country, both right and left, are simply not made to stay inside for months on end. Even during the shut down, you had major retailers still open for business, greeting thousands of shoppers a day. It was an epic fail of a policy. I applaud President Trump and VP Pence for not dawning the masks.

 

Why? And it's 'don', not 'dawn'.

 

The shut downs failed because they didn’t last 39 more days in most places. In contrast to the US, places like New Zealand, Greece, Hong Kong took the short term economic hit to drive cases very low so they testing and contact tracing can work and people can reopen with confidence economically. The Trump rally yesterday should tell you how concerned people are about crowds. And the science on reducing spread by wearing masks is overwhelming at this point. So, you are applauding them for reckless behavior.