Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

You understand that it doesn’t matter if increase in numbers are because of increases in testing, don’t you?

 

Thanks for looking up old posts that confirm what I have been saying. You have been arguing that the increases in cases were due to increases in testing and I have been arguing that the increases in cases were/are due to more people getting sick. When you made this statement on 6/2, it wasn't true: 'But at this moment the increase in testing is what is resulting in cases'. And that is a fairly definitive statement on your part. It doesn't say 'some' of the increase in cases is due to increase in testing.

 

It doesn’t matter. Because even if we are diagnosing an increase in cases because of more testing, it means that we do not have the virus under control. And, virology being what it is, spikes are inevitable. As we are seeing in Montgomery, Houston and Phoenix hospitalizations.

 

No. That article says testing is not the ONLY factor.

 

It matters when tracking the progression/spread of the disease. Positive patients exist with or without the test. The number goes up with more testing and thus we get better data.

 

No, it doesn’t matter. Because and long as there are cases and the case are not going down, there will be spread with increased contact. You hear right wingers make this argument, but not virologists.

 

Because the data backed it up on 6/2. In that conversation. I also clearly acknowledged the potential for that to change.

 

I never claimed it was under control.
I just claimed that we were finding more positive cases that were previously missed with less testing.

The better testing gives us a better view of what we are dealing with. It helps us isolate and contact trace so that folks can return to making a living.

 

So your suggestion is what?
If the testing is irrelevant, then contact tracing is useless. When then do people return to work?

 

No it didn't.

 

Here is what the article says, since you seem to be determined to ignore the conclusion that testing does not account for the increase in cases.

This is not that hard; increased testing either accounts for the increase or it does not. And, it does not.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243349186.html

However, over the past month, testing has been inconsistent, and trended slightly downward during the two weeks before the June 5 reopening, according to the Herald analysis. Despite that, new cases increased by almost 50 percent over the same period.

Trends of new cases, testing totals and positivity rates identified by the Herald in early June “seem to be an indicator that a really good level of control of the spread of the virus has not been achieved across the counties that you’re looking at and in Florida as a whole,” Bednarczyk said.

“The testing has not been [consistent] and hasn’t increased that much, and doesn’t explain the increase in cases to my view, bottom line,” said Toner of Johns Hopkins.

In the first nine days of June, testing in the three South Florida counties increased by 54 percent — while new cases increased by 64 percent.

 

Oh good lord man. In the cases being discussed it did. I am posted the data then. I am not having a week old argument with you again.

Have a good weekend.

 

Your last paragraph literally proves my point. If the testing does not increase 54% then we would not have seen a 64% increase from a data perspective. The testing is what catches the increase. Of course the disease is there either way, but the spike in testing brings with it by default a spike in positives.

We are talking data. The testing % impacts the data.

 

Please don't shift the question. I said that does not matter if the number of cases increases because of increased testing. Testing just reveals spread.

My suggestion? I have repeatedly said what the solution is. And, it isn't what we are doing.

Countries around the world have suppressed this. New Zealand, Germany. Greece. Hong Kong. Taiwan. South korea. That is how it is done.

And, they are reopening safely. Why are we different? Are we somehow less vulnerable to this virus? Or, did we respond stupidly?

You want a long term solution? Elect competent national leadership that will not put us to this choice by lying about a pandemic and will give information to state and local governments to make decisions consistent with virology.

We started too late and quit too early.

We should not have a choice between allowing a spreading pandemic vs. people going back to work.

That binary choice is wrong. Quit too early, don't drive down the numbers, and the virus spreads. We just postpone the economic damage.

 

Just look up the data in NC and Florida as of 6/2. Positive rates were higher than they were in early to mid May. That doesn't happen if the increase is only due to increased testing.

 

Unless more people are being tested because more people are sick. Testing does not account for the increase in cases, as argued here by too many. Testing diagnoses cases.

 

this will ruffle a few feathers. let the spin begin

Masks significantly reduce infection risk, likely preventing thousands of COVID-19 cases -study

June 12 (Reuters) - Requiring the wearing of masks to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus in areas at the epicenter of the global pandemic may have prevented tens of thousands of infections, a new study suggests. Mask-wearing is even more important for preventing the virus' spread and the sometimes deadly COVID-19 illness it causes than social distancing and stay-at-home orders, researchers said, in the study published in PNAS: The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Infection trends shifted dramatically when mask-wearing rules were implemented on April 6 in northern Italy and April 17 in New York City - at the time among the hardest hit areas of the world by the health crisis - the study found. "This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9," researchers calculated.

When mask-wearing went into effect in New York, the daily new infection rate fell by about 3% per day, researchers said. In the rest of the country, daily new infections continued to increase.
…………………..……………………..
"The unique function of face covering to block atomization and inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols accounts for the significantly reduced infections," they said. That would indicate "that airborne transmission of COVID-19 represents the dominant route for infection."

 

Meanwhile, in Florida....
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article242937591.html

 

COVID-19 Cases in Florida prior to phase-2 reopening, excluding South Florida
New cases are plotted by three-day rolling average on the date DOH received first positive test results for an individual. The trend shows the general trajectory of data over the 14-day period.



Seems like whatever numbers DeSantis was using were all wrong. Florida has never met the criteria to go to phase 2 reopening

 

Or phase 1,based on the Miami Herald article I linked at post 12658. We are reopening because we waited too long to close and leadership is willing to accept the illness and deaths to open up and did not want to wait to drive down the numbers. Remember when we reopened and got the two week mark and everyone said, “look at the numbers.” Sigh.