Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

RNC should think about having a massive meeting their without masks or social distancing.
Oh well, at least there is plenty of hotel space around the conference so people won't have to cram into buses.

Oh, wait.

 

The issue is whether we are still in essentially a testing shortage or not. If we are, then the comment makes no sense as supply of testing is the limiting factor on tests. If we aren't, then the comment makes perfect sense, as demand determines the amount of testing and demand is a function of true infection rate.

So the question is: are we still in a testing shortage?

 

Look man. He flat out said that the increase is NOT due to increased testing. I simply said, I have never heard that. I have heard it can be a multiplicity of things, but I have never heard that the increase in cases is NOT due to an increase in testing. An increase in % positive is an area of concern, but that does not equate to testing not being a factor.

I agree, we are all tense at times these days. My apologies when I overreact.
I try to be fair in regards to my faith. I call out fake Christianity a great deal here.
I call out our pandering fake "Christian" POTUS a great deal here. Heck a huge group of folks on another board think I have turned liberal and am not acting like a Christian due to the number of times I take aim at my own side.

...but your words are not in vain and I agree I could be better at crafting my point in a non defensive way.

 

I don't deny it. Never have. I am just saying that up to this point most of what we are seeing is due to a spike in testing. Of course reopening will likely lead to a case increase, and better testing will catch more and more.

The key is contact tracing, not shut down. I linked an article here in NC stating how Wake County was really bumping up their plan for contact tracing. If that is handled properly, we should be able to balance reopening and containment. Couple that with some news that asymptomatic people may be less of an issue than feared (depending on the day, I know...sigh), and I think the states that are seeing these increases will handle them properly.

I have always supported the initial shutdown as so much needed to be learned and planned for.
We have a lot more info now however, and I am ready to see us move forward.

 

Not so sure I follow. Demand will come from many areas as testing becomes more available. Employers being one.

 

They could go the Jacksonville Super Bowl route and cram them all onto...wait for it....cruise ships.

 

If supply is driving the amount of tests, we are still in shortage, as that means we still have pent up demand that is not being served. So, for example, if you are waiting to reopen a business until you can secure enough testing, then you secure it while others wait for the same thing, then we are in shortage.

Now, are other things potential factors increasing demand on testing? Sure. But it would be hard to argue in any rational world that the amount of testing demanded, when not in shortage, would be at least partially determined by the true infection rate, both directly and indirectly (i.e., more businesses would demand testing if their perceived risk increases due to an increasing local infection rates).

 

OK. Gotcha. We are on the same page. Like I said, there is a multiplicity of factors driving numbers.

 

Yeah I guess I should have qualified it that the increase in cases isn't only due to increased testing. But I didn't figure that anyone was going to get hung up on taking it so literally. It is very clear that the main reason by far for increased cases is that more people are getting sick. The positive test rate in Florida has doubled since mid May.

This isn't rocket science. It's very simple. More physical contact will lead to more cases. And more cases will lead to more hospitalizations. And more hospitalizations means more deaths. It's hard to believe there's any debate about this at all but some seem to be steadfastly refusing to believe these basic rules of statistics and epidemiology.

 

Agree. If more people were not getting infected then at some point no matter how many you test the numbers would drop. The infection doesn't last months.

 

Who is denying that cases may increase?

 

Well you'd have to go back through the last 50 pages or so. You'd see plenty of posts either outright denying that cases will increase or at least implying that cases won't actually increase and if the numbers do increase it's because of more testing. And some of those posts would actually be yours.

 

Sooo....the lung damage caused by COVID-19 is absolutely horrifying.

Warning: Not Safe For Life

1st-Known U.S. Lung Transplant For COVID-19 Patient Performed In Chicago

 

I have said numbers 1. Will increase with testing. 2. Are increasing with testing.

I have been very careful not to say that the numbers are definitely not increasing due to spread. Nowhere in the "last 50 pages" have I made that absolute isolated stance. In fact I just stated my entire position yet again. I literally just said:

 

You've implied repeatedly that the numbers are increasing due to increased testing and not so much because of increased transmission, especially with regards to NC (1846 new cases today, btw). Now you're clearly shifting your goal posts.

 

Kind of amazing to think that the presidential campaign might be the catalyst for the next spread.

 

Go back and look at how many times I said "things could change".
Honest assessment in the moment does not equal moving the goal posts.

 

Miami Herald reported the stats on this. Increased testing is not accounting for the increase. Attributed to multiple sources including Johns Hopkins, who killed at it.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article243349186.html

 

Well, looks like the US just tested the most people ever today 583K and only had a 4.07% positive rate.