Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Corresponding does not mean caused by. I was meaning it as it occurred at the same time.

And yes, it does take a couple of weeks for cases to convert to death, which is why the point you made is nonsensical to start (discussing the case takeoff and answering that the death rate isn't taking off yet isn't helpful information as a reason not to address the case takeoff). I was just pointing out that it was factually incorrect over the past week too.

 

Coronavirus in nursing homes: three months and 40,600 deaths

Glad this is getting attention. A travesty from the top down.

 

Texas, Georgia and Florida are all coming up with creative ways to deny that Covid-19 related deaths are actually Covid-19 related.

 

as instead of claiming non covid 19 deaths were covid 19, like new york?

 

you know i had to comment on just how deaths are classified, didn't you?

 

Given the excess unexplained deaths in New York, they appear to be under counting the covid 19 related deaths as well.

 

or maybe just doing the right thing, if it is not covid related, leave it as such, do not think they really want their numbers to start rising again if mysterious deaths are covid classified, cuomo would not approve.

 

OK. Here is the NY times. The days missing from the IHME site actually help my point.
One of the best 3 day totals in 2 months. The 7 day trent looks flat because it is bolstered by one big spike day after the Memorial Day numbers were factored. North Carolina saw a similar thing. Note only 3 deaths were reported on Memorial day. Several states saw a huge spike that Wednesday for some reason.

 

It is the best 3 day total since...last week. The corresponding three days last week had 38 total deaths. These 3 days were 50. 50 is larger than 38. So if you want to use 3 day averages, it is increasing since last week (by about 4 deaths per day).

If you look at the 7 day moving average, which deals with the issues of weekly churn, it has increased slightly as well, although has been mostly flat. It has not decreased over the last week.

 

We have no way of knowing if that is a true statement or false. But we do know an average of 7,500 people die a day in the US. So it will be very interesting to see what the death total for the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020 look like when stacked up against prior years. I think that's the best way to get an accurate account of the true measure of Covid-19.

 

Except there are tons of other mitigating factors to the overall death total as result of the lock down.

How many people do you suppose have died in traffic accidents while commuting to work in the last 3 months considering the vast majority of people are working from home? Probably WAY fewer than normal.

 

Well, yeah, that and the last 7-10 days worth of data are not completely counted in the charts yet in most states, certainly no North Carolina. I am not going to chase down the state of Texas site and find out how many days their data reporting lags, but guessing it is substantial around a state that massive.

 

No need for the math lesson. I did not say it was the lowest. I said one of the lowest in two months, which it is. 2nd lowest in fact.

The 7 day average, which I did mention, Includes the Wednesday spike from Memorial Day, which puts the numbers from 9 days ago, into the recent 7 day figure. Put those numbers on Memorial Day where they belong and the drop would show for the seven days.

And no, I cant remember where I read about the Memorial Day lag time, but it was in regards to my state which had the identical same thing happen on the Wednesday after Memorial Day.

 

This is certainly a fair part of this.

 

Yes, if you deal with the seasonality issue to pull numbers out and move them back into the weekend and out of the 7 day average but fail to do the same now (i.e., we should see a larger number today that are lagged data from the last two observations), you might see a drop. Of course, that would be an absurd idea that would be massaging the data to try to show something. The lack of weekly variance is why you utilize a 7 day average. Pointing out the big spike and ignoring the continued weekly variance is not an appropriate way to interpret a 7 day average.

 

They really want that RNC convention in Dallas

 

more positive numbers, in the month of april there were 874,728 new cases with 57,462 deaths. in may there were 742,147 new cases with 40,442 deaths,plus, there were almost 5.4 million more tests done in may than april.

 

Deaths officially ruled as due to covid are dropping. 7, 14 day total death count would be a good number to know

 

Do you not understand that the memorial day numbers were handled differently than the usual 7 day weekend numbers? Mentioning a holiday weekend specifically is not an effort to move numbers back to the weekends. That weekend is an anomaly.

 

This we can agree on but we must account for decrease in vehicle crashes when extrapolating the true death count.