Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Seems to be picking at nits but okay.

You asked me a question about what my solution was for some of the people, and in answering, I brought up the BoR. This shouldn't be so hard for you to figure out.

 

Well, here is a solution they examine why reopening prematurely to get the economy going isn’t going to work. As I said last night here and have been saying. All because we shut down too late. From an economist at John’s Hopkins. With comments on the effect of our shutting down too late.
Johns Hopkins economist: 'Reopening an infected economy is no shortcut' to financial recovery

 

‘Hard stop’: States could lose National Guard virus workers

 

We can disagree about nit picking. I would call it writing carefully.

I mean, I got that you were referencing the Bill of Rights in response, but I just don't see the relevance to our discussion. Let us put that aside, because it's a bit on the idealogical side. Can we also not call people selfish and ignorant? What I am asking is what precisely do you recommend? @duchen feel free to chime in to this bit. It's nice to say something like: Let us re-open carefully and after the virus is under control. However, both of those are very nebulous in terms of time and malleable with respect to meaning. To be clear, I am not trolling you. I am curious what are your thoughts. It would be nice to have some actual civil discourse on this Memorial Day instead of shouting over each other.

 

just under 20,000 new cases with around 440,000 tests, so testing is not a issue for low numbers.like i said earlier, we are identifying severe cases earlier and are treating them much better, thus, imo, the drop off in deaths. also, according to worldometer there are just over 17,000 in the serious/critical category.

 

COVID 19 is rising on 18 states and is Steady in 22 more according to John’s Hopkins. So most of the country is at a plateau or rising. Our overall numbers as a country are down because of New York/New Jersey. So we are opening at highs or close to them in most places. Contrast this country with the experience in Taiwan, Greece, New Zealand.

 

It really isn’t nebulous. Greece, New Zealand, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries did it. Look how New York reverses the upward spread; and it is till high there, but nowhere near where it was. We didn’t drive numbers down and then quit everywhere. You have to drive the numbers down very low. Take the economic pain now and then be better able to open. Much easier when you start early, Lomé when there are 15 cases. The more you delay it, the harder it will be and the longer the economic problem. Lower numbers mean fewer tests are needed and contact tracing is easier. Open with rising curves or at a plateau, and the virus will eventually spread when conditions are right. What nursing home and prison and stadium and New York City spread and church has taught is that social distancing matters a lot. In many places, even with opening up, people are still staying at home and limiting activity. So, that is helping. And you cannot take the politics out of it because that is what has caused this country to reverse course in the middle or for some places to decide not to shut down to begin with. We live in a country where empirical fact is denied. All the excuses why we couldn’t be like the countries that succeeded are just that, excuses. Because we never tried when it mattered. And then quit.

 

Might be a day after that. There appears to be a lag of about a day.Tuesdays are usually the big day each week, but it might be Wednesday this week due to Monday being closed.

 

How low is sufficiently low?

And for what purpose exactly?

Do your observations in places like Greece, New Zealand, Thailand, etc generalize to a place like the US?

Define economic pain. How much? Who bears the brunt of it? How do you buffer the impact? What is your plan for recompense?

What is your plan for contact tracing?

Do you coordinate re-opening across the entire country? Or do you let localities decide for themselves? Suppose numbers are sufficiently low in one area of a state, do you allow that region to re-open? Or do they wait for the rest of the state?

You want to take out the politics? Then take them out. We need not discuss that here.

 

Low case numbers. Low enough to contact twice and track. I posted in one of these threads about the success in New Zealand and Greece. Read what they did. How they drive cases down. Let the scientists tell us how low the cases need be. I am too lazy and tired to dig up the same posts about those countries. Check out Beijing. Haven’t had a case there on 6 weeks. Other places in China are dealing with outbreaks. Arguments that places are not like the US are wrong. This is an issue of virology and epidemiology. Instead, here, people want to pack football stadiums. What is my plan for contact tracing? What is our national plan? What has the president said stress should do? We have no plan. The question is rhetorical and reflective of the absence of leadership here. You should not have to ask the question.

 

Are you aware that there is disagreement among scientists? So to which scientists do you entrust your plan?

Do you consult only the scientists? Is there anybody else with whom you consult?

Am I right to infer that you do think that the results in places like New Zealand and Greece generalize to a place like the US?

Do you trust China's numbers? See graph below.

I don't care about what other people think about football stadiums. I asked you about your precise thoughts. So, what are your plans to contact tracing? How low is sufficiently low to contract trace?

 

The way you contact trace is to drive numbers of cases down. Then you test. Symptomatic and asymptomatic at random. Then you hire people to identify the people and places where the people who are positive have been. The you test, isolate and quarantine their contacts until the 14 day outside incubation period passes. That is contact tracing. But, you need to reduce cases to a very low level first so there are enough tests. You would not need millions of tests every day if you do this right.

 

Here is how Greece down it. What they did worked.

 

And here is what New Zealand did.
This Country Says It’s on Course to Wipe Out Covid-19

 

And here are Taiwan and South Korea. The scientists disagree? Now? After examples of what works and do not work?
Agile Governance Crushing COVID-19: Taiwan and South Korea

 

And here is Thailand. Down to single digits cases now. All these countries did what we cannot do.
Thailand to extend coronavirus emergency to end of June

 

I know what they did. That's not what I asked you. I want to know whether you think it will work in the US.

 

How low is sufficiently low? How do you test? Do you mandate it?

Where do you plan on quarantining people?

What do you do in the meantime until you reach this threshold low case number?

Who bears the economic burden? How do you buffer it? Do you offer recompense? If so, how would you achieve it?

Do you trust the numbers from China?

 

Why wouldn’t it work here? Stopping the spread of a virus by limiting spread. It has worked all over the world where there was the discipline to follow sound leadership. As for your condescending questions: I just posted countries where they reduced vas’s to single digits. So, it can be done. Read the articles. As for the economic burden, it isn’t going to get any better when people fear contraction of the virus and adjust their behavior or as illness rates grow. Like it says on the article about Greece, which is opening up tourism with case in the low hundreds, a country m either pays an economic price early or a greater price later. Of course, it helps if you start with a lower number of cases. But we didn’t have the leadership for that. Meanwhile, instead of your non-stop condescending questions, why don’t you address the countries that I gave examples of and explain why the facts addressed on these links are wrong.