Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

The headline for the video says "Texas sees steady rise", but the mayor literally never mentions a rise and the reported cites a DECREASE in numbers in Dallas.

The mayor literally never mentions a negative thing other than mentioning they need to improve their ability to contact trace like "every other city in America" does.

Direct quotes:

"Our cases were going up for the past couple of weeks...but now appear to be holding steady"

"Hospital capacity appears to be holding steady in a good place"

"So that's all good news"

Reporter quotes numbers to mayor: "That is as you (mayor) mentioned less than it was before". (He shakes head in agreement)

"We should use good judgement and continue doing the rest of the things that have helped us flatten our curve here in Dallas."

Absolutely nothing in the headline matches the actual interview and certainly seems to make the opposite point that it was posted to make.

 

The reporter literally says Dallas has seen a drop. The only mention of a rise in numbers is in her intro and is never validated by the mayor of Dallas.

 

Here is nore from 5 days ago: Texas, North Carolina and Arizona.

Texas, North Carolina, Arizona see rising cases as they reopen

Texas, North Carolina and Arizona are among the states seeing rising numbers of coronavirus cases, intensifying concerns as they seek to reopen shuttered economies.

Texas saw its largest one-day increase in cases on Saturday, with 1,801 new cases. North Carolina also saw its largest single-day jump on Saturday with 853 new cases. And Arizona reported 462 new cases that day, close to a record high.

The seven-day average in new cases in all three states has also been rising, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

New York and New Jersey, once by far the epicenter of infections in the United States, have seen significant declines in new cases in recent weeks. But other states, like Texas and Arizona, are seeing increases.

 

She discussed the rising cases in Texas, corroborated elsewhere including the link I posted. Then she interviewed the mayor of Dallas about Dallas.

You do understand that there are more cities and towns in Texas than Dallas, don't you?

And you do comprehend that when the curve flattens, the numbers haven't been driven down yet?

And, you do understand the fallacy of the argument that reopoining is OK because increasing testing is revealing more cases, don't you?

If not, I will explain it: because with an exponential growth rate, the current number of cases is what matters for future spread.

 

Not sure why so snarky. But the numbers are not actually increasing in Texas.

 

Two weeks after "Phase 1 Re-opening and the same day as Phase 2" North Carolina records its most ever positive tests in a single 24 hour period. At the same time, since Phase 1 of re-opening the % of positive tests has been steadily climbing from below 7% to now above 10%, so we cannot just blame it on increased testing.

On a side note, Police in Guilford County have rumored (from my police captain neighbor) been called to at least 2 "Corona Parties" where people are trying to get infected. I have no idea if that is really a "thing" or not, but that just makes me loathe ignorant people even more.

North Carolina Reports Highest One Day Spike Of COVID-19 Cases

 

I don't think you need to try so hard to make this a positive / negative argument. Apparently, the fact is that Texas has seen an increase in cases recently. Dallas appears to be experiencing a leveling off / plateau, which is certainly good. Keep in mind that politicians will often try and paint an optimistic picture for their geographical area. They have a vested interest in doing so. At any rate, I didn't see the interview as a "yay team, we're doing just swell" message.

 

Your data is a week behind I believe. I posted today's NYT numbers. Yours is last Saturday correct?

 

False. And certainly not based on the averages

Live updates: Texas coronavirus cases surge as restaurants, gyms, bars, and childcare facilities reopen

The Texas Department of State Health Services announced on Saturday that 1,801 new people had been diagnosed with COVID-19 in 24 hours. That surge was partially caused by an outbreak in the Panhandle, where more than 700 cases attributed to local meatpacking facilities were recorded in the city of Amarillo, the Houston Chronicle reported.

As of Thursday, the statewide tally has risen to 51,859 patients and 1,431 deaths, based on data from Johns Hopkins University.

 

Tilly - you're taking this a bit too seriously. If you align the headline in the video with the graph (I checked the NYT site too out of curiosity), you clearly see a steady increase of new cases heading into May and through the first two weeks of May with a huge number just one week ago. Five the the last seven days have indeed decreased.

 

Then how come our death rate is falling off so much?


North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count

 

The graph is not "false". In fact you used a week old version of the same exact source just above...and an outbreak at a packing facility has nothing to do with opening up restaurants etc.

 

You aren't reading the chart right.

Texas Coronavirus Map and Case Count

There is a list of counties. Then the following note. And, Texas was mixing antibody results with active cases. Fixin that would show a lower rate of growth.

Note: Growth rate shows how frequently the number of cases has doubled over the previous seven days. The fastest rate color shows when cases are doubling in less than 3 days, while the slowest rate color shows when cases are doubling much more slowly, once every 30 days or longer. Growth rate not shown for counties with fewer than 20 cases.

 

Too seriously? I posted a graph.
Isn't that what we are talking about?
The state opened up and has a nearly week long run of decrease.

 

All it shows is one week. And, Texas was counting antibody tests. And see post 11533.

 

The graph shows 7 day averages. This week has been a decrease. I am not reading that wrong. It is black and white.

 

No. The state opened several weeks ago.

 

Good question. The easy answer is that deaths lag infections so we expect to see the death number climb in the coming 2 weeks. I am not sure that is the answer, however. It may be that we are now doing a better job protecting those in congregate living facilities. As of the other day approximately 30% of all cases in North Carolina were in congregate living facilities and prisons. As of that same date, nearly 60% of the deaths were also from those two groups. It may just be that we are seeing wider spread among our younger and less likely to die from this disease?

I am not sure that we know enough to answer your question yet. We likely will in 2 more weeks.

 

I'm god's own drunk and a righteous man. This quarantine is killing me. Mask free zone.

 

Nor did I. I just did not see how it validated the opposite. That is all I said. It did not say what he thought it did, outside of the reporter throwing in a snippet at the start.