Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I see Dr Doom is back. Good try. Cases are dropping in the states that opened. You are trying hard to make it look bad. I wonder why?

 

That is not what I said.

Flattening the curve was never about stopping the spread, preventing cases, or preventing deaths. It was to prevent an overrun of the healthcare system: It was meant to spread the identical number of cases over a longer duration so that the healthcare system could take it on. Taking the integrals of both curves yields the exact same number of people infected, and because mortality rate is more-or-less a constant, an identical number of people dead. To be clear, the identical number of people get infected, however, the number of people could be less if an effective intervention is found.

What is "flattening the curve"?

Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? | Live Science

@mdgator05 What is your evidence to the contrary? I'll wait.

@duchen Why not use your words and state your disagreement? Please cite your sources to backup your claims. Or, alternatively, just cower behind your screen as per usual.

@BLING The above was actually meant for you. My apologies to you both for the misappropriation.

@coleg

 

I posted in this thread and the one on Trump’s response my post about when places should have closed and open up. We closed too late and are opening too early in places where the number of cases is not low enough. Read the links I posted on posts 11017 and 11019. Flattening the curve is not enough if you want to safely reopen. There are countries that empirically have reduced the virus to very low numbers so they can test outbreaks and contact trace. Our numbers are too high for this. As for your insult, you evidently did not read the links I posted, which I chalk up to the inflated air of superiority endemic to most of your posts or to your outright laziness.

 

Exactly. So if you have increasing outbreaks in states reopening, what do you expect will happen?

 

What are you talking about? Honestly, I have no idea.

As it turns out, I cited you accidentally. I meant to cite @BLING. As it is, I have correct my unfortunate accident.

Laziness? Please expand on that. You mean how I post claims that have supported and cited research to back them up?

Air of superiority? You mean because I am confident in the facts? Or because I trust the education and training I have received specifically in the field of medical research?

I take that you do not dispute that goal of exactly what I wrote. What are your resources for setting public policy? How can you say whether the numbers are too high or low my friend?

I beg you friend, please respond only if you have actual figures and stats to support your claims.

 

It's really really simple. The more physical contact people have with each other, the more cases we will see. There are plenty of other factors as well, but I don't see how anyone can disagree that more contact leads to more cases. And whether a state has opened up or is still shut down, more physical contact is taking place everywhere as people grow tired of being isolated. Here in Austin, where the rules have changed little, there are far more cars on the road than there were a month ago.

So drawing comparisons across states right now is difficult. There are a lot of factors at play. But one thing that no one can disagree with is that more contact will lead to more cases than there otherwise would have been.

 

You didn’t read the links I posted. Didn’t even mention them. You are taking about flattening the curve. I am not.

 

You did not post any links. You referenced post numbers, but I have no idea to which thread you are referring.

With regard to when to re-open, however, flattening the curve is absolutely relevant. If the point of shutdown was to flatten the curve, and the curve is indeed flat, then what is your case against re-opening?

 

Where are you going with this? Who is saying that more contact does not lead to more cases? Literally, nobody has made that claim.

 

They can’t respond with facts. They so want to right about us opening up being wrong that they let it cloud their judgement. And make no mistake, the moment an uptick happens(like Texas even though their testing has increased significantly and the positive rate has dropped) they come in saying “I told you so”. It’s so sad. Rooting for the US to fail. Not sure why but it’s crazy to me. All they want to do is point out the failings of the Administration.

 

What is "flattening the curve"?



Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work? | Live Science

@mdgator05 What is your evidence to the contrary? I'll wait.

@duchen Why not use your words and state your disagreement? Please cite your sources to backup your claims. Or, alternatively, just cower behind your screen as per usual.

@BLING The above was actually meant for you. My apologies to you both for the misappropriation.

@coleg[/QUOTE]

Well, preventing an overrun of the healthcare system was important because...it prevents deaths due to a lack of appropriate care. However, you also pointed out another way that it would decrease deaths: by giving time to get to interventions. Given those, it is highly unlikely that we did not lower the death rate. Sorry that your answer was incorrect.

 

Only one of us has posted misleading information in the past couple of days and it wasn't me...

I am happy to deal in facts. Pointing out that you might prefer something to be true, but that it is not factual is actually dealing in facts. Posting things because you wish they were true when they aren't isn't dealing in facts.

 

I did not post links? Try reading instead of making false statements and hurling insults that I am cowering behind my keyboard, because i am the last one who does that.

I will make it easy for you and re-post the links below.

I cited the posts where I posted the links. So, you did not read them. I will insert those posts here.

They show how countries opening up did so in a safer way.

Flattening the curve is not enough. You have to drive the curve down and reduce cases so you can identify new cases, flare ups and quarantine.

You have to drive cases down, not just flatten the curve, because there are still too many cases with a flat curve.

Eventually, cases will grow because that is scientific fact.

Here are the earlier links. This is what works. Shut down until the numbers are low.

It worked in New Zealand and other Asian countries.

There are others as well.

What is going to happen here is inevitable if we do not drive down the virus, test, and contact trace.

And, we are quitting at a point when we cannot test because there are too many people still potentially affected.

And, in this country, there are too many curves. Some flattened and on the decline. Other places where cases are increasing.

And now there will be movement.

Meanwhile, dislikes and disagrees about the actual factually supported experiences in New Zealand and the Asian countries.

This Country Says It’s on Course to Wipe Out Covid-19

Parts of Asia that relaxed restrictions without a resurgence in coronavirus cases did these three things

 

really? I didn’t see your praise for DeSantis on how well Florida has done combating Covid-19. I guess I missed that post. My bad...

Mario being obtuse. Tennessee, Florida and Texas have done well in their opening. You were misleading about 400 pages ago saying Florida was going to be huge hot spot. Didn’t see you saying you were wrong on that. Take the L and go outside and have fun. I’m going out to a restaurant for dinner. Hope I don’t die...

 

Well easy to study the claims by comparing the data. Here are all of the states with their re-opening status. You are seeing mixed signals here on a state-by-state basis. Some have increased since opening (notably Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, South Dakota, Texas) while others have decreased (notably Colorado, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Rhode Island). Others either have been fairly flat (Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia, North Dakota) or have seen some combination of an increase and a decrease that results in a mixed signal but flat overall numbers (e.g., Nevada, South Dakota, etc.). Meanwhile, states that have not re-opened also have mixed results (Michigan and New Jersey have seen large decreases in cases, Illinois and Delaware have been flat for the past couple of weeks). Claiming a signal here is highly dubious and appears to be wish-casting.

See Which States Are Reopening and Which Are Still Shut Down