Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Google the 1957 Asian Flu: 2 to 4 million died around the world. WHO reduced it to 2 mill.
***US Death toll. Just under 70,000.
The US did not shut down. Good hot weather got rid of it!
My unit at Ft. Carson, CO has 60% sick or in hospital. I did get sick!
But, I'm still here & going strong!
hbgator.

 

I agree with and understand what you're saying. Since they are now testing much more maybe waiting a little longer before judging it a success (or good news) would be prudent.

 

I thi k the confusion is that a couple arguments got blended together here.

My point is that in increased number of positive results does not mean the actual infection number is rising, because we had so few tests early on.

A separate conversation came that was about the graph from Georgia and a third dealing with Germany. They all collided into one conversation.

You and I have been down this block enough times to know that is how things work on Too Hot.

 

I agree about "success "...but news is in the moment. Wait to hang a banner, but report news as it happens.

Did that make sense?

 

Definitely.

 

It appears that the US will surpass 100K deaths from this virus, and that is with the extreme measure of shutting down. Imagine the death totals possible without those measures.

 

no,no,we cannot have accuracy now can we?

 

A good spitball way of doing it, will be "excess deaths". How many deaths, on average, would a broad geographical area or large city see in a month. Over the course of this pandemic it will be across many months. So you'd expect the trend to be pretty obvious to those who study the figures. One would expect the COVID deaths to be somewhere aligned with [total deaths - "expected" deaths = excess deaths]. How many "excess deaths" could be assumed directly because of COVID? 90%?

If there is some huge gap one way or the other (over-counting or under-counting in the "official" causes of deaths) between the "excess deaths" and those officially determined as COVID deaths, that would be a variance that would need to be explained. How many of these excess deaths were respiratory or organ failure related but were not specified as COVID, vs. how many legitimately had an alternate cause of death? These are the things that will likely have to be studied and estimated once the experts can drill into the data.

 

Morgues on wheels can be re-used as food trucks after coronavirus. I'm assuming that they will do a good job cleaning them.

Refrigerated trucks used as morgues during coronavirus pandemic can transport food again, FDA says

A lot of mixed messages there. Should the truck be properly cleaned or thoroughly cleaned? Should it be sanitized or disinfected?

I'm glad they didn't define "properly" or "thoroughly". I'm thinking one can of Lysol (or Febreze) per truck should do it. Or a pine tree car air freshener, if you sell discount foods.

 

Sailors on sidelined USS Theodore Roosevelt get virus for second time

All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.

 

That is concerning.

 

What is concerning is they tested positive, did 2 weeks of quarantine, tested negative twice.

Then developed symptoms

So is the testing bad? Is the virus more resilient then previously known?

Lots of questions.

 

It would be the same number.

 

Knowing the type of test would be helpful. Sandwich ELISA? PCR?

 

Testing is necessary for safe reopening. In countries that are competently responding, they wait until cases are very low so that they can reopen, test and contact trace. We are skipping driving the cases low making a second surge and shutdowns almost inevitable because the virus is still here. That is just the reality of virology and this virus. Reopening now is a consequence of early incompetence. As I said in another thread and I will bring the link here. It isn’t very hard conceptually how to reopen more safely. We just do not want to do it because we shut down too late.
This Country Says It’s on Course to Wipe Out Covid-19

 

So more contact doesn't lead to more spread of communicable diseases? Not at all, huh? That is an interesting perspective. Based upon what evidence?

 

And here are more examples of counties that did it right and didn’t quit too soon.
Parts of Asia that relaxed restrictions without a resurgence in coronavirus cases did these three things

 

Meanwhile, we see New outbreaks as we open up. Following the game plan that doesn’t work because Trump follows, rather than leads, his base. And foolish policy making.
Coronavirus update New outbreaks reported in states that plan to reopen soon while Trump suggests testing is overrated - MarketWatch