Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

OK, but, and i have no facts to cite here, but many, many people with Diabetes, High Blood Pressure, Asthma, COPD, Cardiac Issues, Cancer, Transplants, are far younger than 65. You seem to want to make this about older people vs not. That is not the case. Here is data from the state of North Carolina on Covid-19 confirmed cases by age. Locking people 65+ away in North Carolina is not going to prevent the majority of the infections.



Now, if you do not care about people getting sick for 3-6 weeks and suffering potential lung damage which will shorten their lifespan, and only care about the deaths, this is a chart that will support your point.



NC DHHS COVID-19: COVID-19 North Carolina Dashboard

 

Great charts....

Most people don't get the "potential lung damage". A far greater % over 65 have all the conditions above.

Since the biggest issues everywhere has been the DEATH TOLL yeah that why I'm focusing on the over 65 age group.

The questions now (because its seems to have morphed) are trying to prevent all COVID infections? Or decrease the death toll or blunt the curve? We have heard for weeks, if you infect someone you may kill them.....

Reality is most who get it don't get very sick if at all. It's the 15-20% who wind up in hospital we need to avoid spiking.

 

I think it would be great if we could definitively say that exactly who is in that 15-20%. Young people with no underlying conditions have died from this, and people in their 80's and 90's have had it and recovered. That alone throws the idea of being able to protect the most vulnerable when you don't know who they are.

 

Young people aren't dying from this. It's literally 1 in a million people 15-24 who are dying from this. Infinitely better odds of dying in a car crash or suicide than Covid-19.

 

Very few young people are dying from this. Check the stats, I will find FL and post it. The ones that are almost always have more than one co morbidity. 94% of the fatalities are 55 and over, and 84% are 65 and over. I wish they had a chart showing those with other conditions.

 

By the way, you might not get this from my responses and discussion, but I am NOT one of those who want the nation shut down indefinitely until we all just starve to death. But, I do not believe most governors are operating with the best interest of their state in mind by moving faster than common sense would dictate. Trump,his MAGA-ts, his ignorant conspiracy wackos and paid army of armed protesters/domestic terrorists are not helping the situation either.

 

Of course high risk people could still get it, but it is about limiting contact. My wife takes care of her elderly grandfather who lives in a house we own nearby. She and her father are pretty much all who are taking care of him. He is generally very active. Eats out, church etc. His chances of contact are probably down 99%. If everyone in the 80% lives their life and the vulnerable have limited exposure it will absolutely help. He went from probably sitting in rooms with hundreds of random people every week (diners and church etc) To total isolation.

So yes. My wife could contract it from my exposure at work or hers at work and bring it to him, but that is 2 people compared to hundreds in his normal life.

This cuts the percentages...way...way...way down, while allowing normalcy for others.

Same with church, sports etc. He should not go to a game right now...and maybe I should not because he is in our care, but why cant the guy three houses down in his 30's with no vulnerable people under his care?

I mean the alternative to a virus that can spread is one that can't. We can't wait for the virus to go away. People are losing their livelihood out there.

 

although i use worldometer for the numbers i use for daily updates, i am begining to think the have no idea where they get their numbers, it is insane to think they go from 1200 to 84 in a single day, all in all, sloppy reporting, imo, by the counties and states.

 

I'm about sick of y'all downplaying this. I'm only 52 years old, suffered a massive stroke at 50, and have been told I am as good as dead if I contract this; and as I have learned from other stroke "victims", I'm not even unusual... countless folks my age suffer strokes through no fault of their own, and many, like me, had one during their sleep and it remains unexplained. I'm 5'9" and 165 lbs., exercise regularly, don't drink, don't smoke, don't even consume caffeine. I ABSOLUTELY have a much greater chance of dying from Covid-19.

 

Did you click on Texas to see the detail? Yesterday was nearly 1600. Today only 3 or 4 counties have posted an update so far.

 

When is this from?

I can't find the totals for 2018, but in 2017 the total motor vehicle deaths for the year were 38,659 (we passed that a month ago). We are over 86,000 covid deaths so far. One of these seems more deadly than the other.

 

The more people your wife comes into contact with, the higher the risk for her Grandfather. If your wife is going grocery shopping and only one person from the house three doors down goes for his/her house, risk is minimal for your wife. But if the guy three doors down takes his wife and 2 kids shopping, then the risk for your wife is now 4X, as she is coming into contact with four times as many people.

You are correct that if the Grandfather is in your care, you should not go to a game or church because the risk is too great. May not seem so great for that family three doors down either, but you don't know whom they are interacting with, or the people who are interacting 2 degrees of separation. Could be the guy three doors down has a child who is in class with another kid with a parent that works at a nursing facility. You let the family with little risk live normally, and it increases everyone's risk.

That's not to say we need to shelter until we have a vaccine. But we need to be smart and slow about opening up. No reason for any more than one person per household should go to the grocery store and he/she should be wearing a mask. That will slow the spread.

I've posted this before, but in Italy, it was a Champions League Futbol (soccer) match attended by 40,000 that was a ground zero event for the spread of the disease. One event where thousands were infected, who infected a few thousand more, and so on. You let the neighbour assume normal life, if he gets sick, how many degrees of separation until it gets to you?

 

that lines up with the chart numbers. If the average is 14 per 100k that’s around 43k deaths, give or take.
The chart is basically saying that if 100k people die from Covid, based on the current age spread on Covid deaths, a 45-54 year old person would have roughly the same risk overall of dying from that as a traffic accident. If 200k die it’s about double. But for someone over 85, at 100k dead it’s about 23 times more likely to die from Covid than a car and 45 times more at 200k. And to the point above, they are 50 times less likely to die from this as a 15-24 year old than a car accident at 100k.
It’s highlighting the age death disparity, but doing it against a “normal” cause of death as a baseline.

 

Up to 500.

 

so they were in a huge hurry yesterday, but today not so much? how hard is it to establish a common reporting time, say all counties report via computer at 1900, seems simply to me, then all states report by 1945 to meet the 2000 deadline.

 

Yes you do. That sucks. I’m talking about kids going back to school. Sorry, but we can’t shut down the country until a vaccine is available. You need to stay sheltered until they have a proven medicine at minimum that lessons the chances of dying. Hopefully that comes by summers end for you.

 

I love the media...can't avoid a good story. So they cover Bright and drool over every word. So he gives his prediction that the winter is going to be bad, real bad. Nothing different than what Fauci has been saying except he said it could be bad if we ignore it. The media then says this could be worse than the Spanish Flu if the number of deaths exceed 675,000. No, not even close. Total numbers yes, but overall death rate, no. Of course media outlets like CNN ignore science and math. The population today in the US 330,800,000 but the population in 1918 was 103,000,000. So for us to equate to 1918, we need over 2,000,000 deaths. The difference is 1918 was 10x worse than Covid-19 will be. The Spanish Flu was so deadly and virulent, it was able to hit the world in 3 waves in less than a year. And each wave was a worse mutation than its predecessor. Hope Covid-19 doesn't mutate like that but so far so good.

Put it this way, since census records were kept, only 1 year in US history had recorded a negative growth rate - 1918. The Spanish Flu actually decreased life expectancy by 12 years.

 

Team Trump Pushes CDC to Revise Down Its COVID Death Counts

 

So Trump wants to be just like China