Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I see what you are saying but do you see what I'm saying?
Total tests are 467,553 of a population of 21 million or 2.2%.

If I'm reading the above correctly, total test per day includes people who have had multiple tests done over several days.(ex- 1st test 4/21, 2nd test 4/28- 1 person counted twice in the total of tests done for the state)

I may have misunderstood what you posted

I read that as saying some people are being counted multiple times in the toal numbers of tests performed(467553)

 

True but it's coming out of Los Alamos with the lead researcher the one that developed the majority of the HIV treatments.

 

They were tracking different strains in early March. The NE strain came via Europe, West coast via Asia.
I remember reading all about it then. Perhaps this is just a formalized or more detailed paper on that data..

 

So the worldmeter is presumed COVID deaths, not verified. I see.

 

I didn't say we shouldn't try. I don't think there is anyone arguing we can stay bunkered down forever and not have society implode. It is how we try that will make the difference. The administration laid out a phased plan. A good number of states are jumping ahead and not following the plan. The models are reflecting that more folks are out and about and that we still don't have enough capacity to test, trace and isolate to contain the spread that will result.

I don't think what I shared is a definitive statement on the topic. I'm just presenting one look that might suggest the impact of differences in stay at home approaches.

By relaxed social distancing, I'm using that term to encompass the broad approach to include relaxing stay at home orders as part of the broader social distancing approach. The states are changing guidance producing more interaction amongst our citizens. That is the change I'm referencing and it is taking place in a lot of states.

I'm not saying states shouldn't make changes to their approach. I am saying many are doing it outside of the guidelines provided by the administration and before they have the testing capacity to support the change. I am suggesting that will drive the case rates up and provided a look at some Nordic countries and their neighbors that might indicate some degree of the impact of those decisions.

 

???

As I pointed out the Covid table you just posted also includes presumed deaths. The worldometer website just doesn't wait for the death certificate to be fed through the federal bureaucracy and instead utilizes local reports through local agencies, who are releasing aggregate level information on covid deaths.

 

I didn't realize I was pointing at a scoreboard. I thought I was providing an info graphic for folks to consider, digest and discuss.

 

Yes they are counting all tests. What I am saying is there isn't a short supply of tests as referenced by my ability to decide to go get tested (symptoms, but probably allergies). This isn't a month ago where people who wanted to get tested couldn't. If people are showing symptoms or who have been around those that have, they can go get tested. You can't force people to get a test. I can't speak for the rest of the state, but if its this way in my county I would imagine its pretty easy to get a test in most other places if you need one. We even have a local place where you don't need to have a referral from your Dr. That to me would show that our testing capacity is far far greater than it was.

A lower number of tests would tell me that the amount of people that need to get tested is lower. This couldn't be said a month ago as there were many who had symptoms but couldn't get a test.

 

I'm just pointing out that the models are built upon the premise that more activity will equate to more spread. I used the info graphic to show in an isolated group the different mortality rates amongst neighboring countries with different approaches to limiting the activity of their citizens. There are likely other factors involved in the disparity of those rates in the image.

We're going to have to open up. There is going to be a cost. How high the cost is going to be is tied to how well we test, trace and isolate the increased number of folks that contract the virus. It will be tied to how well we support the at risk communities you're referring to in places like nursing homes, jails and tightly confined workplaces like meat packing plants.

The question for officials making the decisions is have they taken the steps they need to take to support their desire to open back up. Because those officials are human's, some will do a better job of that than others.

 

Same in my area.
County now added Antibody testing this week. They have been doing acute infection testing for weeks.
Still low number 8% or so positive. Biggest source is the local Jail 25% or so of cases from there.

 

Great.

 

So in theory someone could be reported to worldometer site yet when the death cert is filled out they may not be a COVID death....

Similar to what happened in PA where they had to remove "COVID" deaths from the register.
Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy

Pennsylvania removes 200 deaths from coronavirus count; forecaster sees summer ‘pop’ in hiring | Morning Newsletter

 

In theory, sure. But given that we have excess deaths above the reported covid19 deaths, it is more likely that we are underreporting covid19 deaths than overreporting them.

But theoretically, yes.

 

Have people stopped dying of the normal stuff?
Seems like Flu deaths are less now than normal.....

 

The news in March was only that different strains had been identified on the east and west coasts. Information on structural changes causing increased infectiousness and a natural selection advantage over earlier strains of the virus are new, as are the concomitant implications that rapidly mutating like this may mean that A) earlier patients may have no immunity, and B) a long-term vaccine may not be possible, but would have to be seasonal like influenza, and C) that current vaccine trials may be proceeding based on the structure of earlier strains and may be useless.

 

Sure, in theory, that could happen. And once they are removed, worldometer removes them from the total. Same as people being added after their death if they are found to be covid deaths. Immediate reports are likely noisier, no doubt about that. However, relying on data with different levels of lag, going all the way back to 8 weeks, which if you remember, 8 weeks ago, we had somewhere in the realm of 30 deaths, is not at all an accurate picture of the situation.

 

I think you're spot on and it's a blessing, because we need to get this economy rolling again. Families are struggling and we do not want to see Biden elected. He will be a disaster.

 

today should be a telling day. numbers for the last 3 tuesdays, which seem to be the highest for the week: deaths 2470, 2683, 2566. new cases 25409, 26084, 27260. highest number of daily tests was the last tuesday at about 202000, been averaging almost 250000 the the 6 days.

 

The U.S. have now tested triple the amount of people of any other nation (I do not believe the numbers coming out of Russia). We have now tested a higher per capita than France and the UK. France.. the #1 healthcare system in the world according to the WHO. We've tested a higher per capita.

 

That's great, and I hope they keep looking into it and reach an evidence-backed conclusion. Until then, however, it's just speculation and it's entirely irresponsible to levy accusations of this gravity.

My advice would be to play devil's advocate in your own head before arriving at a conclusion. For example, could there be other reasons the medical community is not hyped about this study? Here are my comments.

1) The linked story was posted on Mayo Clinics' website, but it's clearly stated in the actual story that the study was conducted by the University of East Anglia.

2) This is a retrospective observational study, which as far as quality of studies go is probably among the lowest in the totem pole.

3) Correlation is not causation. You get vitamin D by sunlight and by repletion. As you can imagine, people who have more sunlight exposure tend to be outside more, engaging in more healthy activities. People who take supplements regularly is also likely more involved in their own healthcare.

4) This may be the most important, which is that we already check Vitamin D levels regularly and replete when needed. This study does not change current medical practice.