Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Yup

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

 

I don't know which CDC mortality stats they used to create this graphic, but the nytimes link only talks about NYC deaths, nothing about state level deaths.

 

I didn’t mean the virus itself would be stronger, but rather that the impacts could be more severe with the same virus if people think we’ve “beaten it before” or that it isn’t a big deal after all - which, amazingly some people are already starting to do now even as we’ve just barely flattened the curve. So I really wasn’t commenting on what mutations might do, more about the psychology. Though I can see how use of the word “stronger” might have implied the former rather than the (intended) latter.

The virus could certainly mutate to a less deadly form, but I’m not going to assume something I know nothing about (and even the best experts in the world can’t even tell us much of anything about future mutations, though it’s impressive they can trace so many identifiable variations so quickly).

 

As it should be. Employees are being put at risk with the “economy opening up”. They have no choice but to show up, comfortable or not, as the job is available to them. The least people can do is minimize risk by wearing a mask. It really isn’t that much to ask to be respectful of others.

 

For reference, i have been to BJ a couple of times. i am not a China culture expert, but i have a solid 20 person lab team there whom i have met, and met the families of several folks. i agree that the Chinese people are not well-serves by their government, they deserve better. However, there is a ton of corruption and definitely trustworthiness problems in our government too.

As for why would they share? Because doctors are doctors everywhere, and most just care about saving lives and advancing medical knowledge to save lives just like western doctors. See data from Chinese doctors below as the perfect example. And, based on reporting from China, the US fast tracked studies of Actemra by itself and in conjunction with anti-viral candidates like Remdesivir. We NEED data from China, S Korea, Japan, Italy, Germany, etc....and we NEED to be sharing data back.

COVID-19: T cells offer clues to the potential power of Roche's Actemra

 

Here is an article that talks about state level deaths in about the same timeline, shifted a week earlier, so it will have a lower death toll than the faulty graphic above.

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests

Weekly deaths from the last 5 years in grey, this year's deaths in red. This lists NYC and NY state separately, but they are on the same scale so you can just add them together.


Actual numbers if you don't like graphs:

 

I think a valid question I don’t see being asked much is how, after six plus weeks of social distancing, schools closed, working from home, testing a lot more and wearing masks, are we still popping off 30,000 new cases a day?

 

Because we are testing more, the more we test the more cases we will have. The stat that is being overlooked and it shouldn't be is the % positive, I have not seen that as a national number, only at the state level. I know in FL the % of positive test to the total test has been well under 10% for the past 2 weeks. Which would seem to be a very low number.

 

Not sure how any of this is within the realm of reality. The US government does not manufacture this stuff, publicly traded companies due. The US cannot force 3M to move everyone of its manufacturing sites to the US. Even if they could, the US does not have the capacity to support the entire world's manufacturing. Further, I am not even sure we have all of the raw components needed in the US.

Additionally, frankly we do not have the ability to bring large scale electronics manufacturing back to the US period. The entire supply chain is in Asia, and the vast majority of it is in China. So, what good is trying to build semiconductor modules or electronics boards if you cannot get capacitors, resistors, inductors, solder paste, solder, etc, etc....without buying from China? Even the few remaining Japanese companies moved manufacturing out of Japan following the earthquake of 2011 and the world has been in perpetual shortage of these components ever since. The last display manufacturer in the US had to be purchased by the US government to stop the "Heads Up Displays" used in our fighters from being moved to China, but no electronics displays are made in the US.

Who is going to pay to re-start all of those businesses, re-train people on how to make those items again and all of the way major device makers like Apple and Google and HP and TI do what??

As for education visas and visiting professors, etc....again, i can see your point, but do not see a practical path forward.

 

Just saw that, thanks. NY and NJ leading the way in that number as well.

 

You don’t understand the reason for Wearing a mask? It is very simple. It limits the viral load a person who may be contagious sheds into the air and reduces the chances of passing a significant infection to others. To a lesser degree, it helps the mask wearer in the same way. The better the mask, the better the protection. For example, it is why medical people wear an N95 if they can. There is the mask and a filter.

 

From the link that @OklahomaGator provided several pages ago, this is consistent with what i have heard:

 

Except that the virus lingers in the air after it is expelled, and longer and farther for runners and bike riders. Did you read the Belgian-Netherlands study? So, you don’t have to run up to someone and breath on them to spread the virus. No offense, but wearing a mask is not punishing the smart to save the stupid. Because the stupid don’t know they are stupid. They think they have all the answers, but they really do not.

 

Didn't know this was that kind of place.

 

Masks in Stillwater, Oklahoma? I don't think so. And they've got the guns to back it up! Yee-haw!

Stillwater, Oklahoma, amends rule on face masks in businesses - CNN

This is what we're up against.

 

Sure, that may be part of it. My point was the virus is still spreading at a pretty good clip if we are getting 30,000 new cases a day with 6+ weeks of social distancing, schools closed, working from home, testing a lot more and wearing masks. Something is amiss here.

 

If an idiot doesn't want to wear a mask, don't let the idiot into the store. If they threaten violence, arrest them.

 

Because people are not 100% social distancing. There have always been broad exceptions. Essential jobs have been going forth (and sometimes dubiously essential). Still have to go to the grocery store. People still work at hospitals. Dumbasses protesting. Etc.

It’s hard to how much of the current cases are “unavoidable” because of legitimate life needs vs the dumbass element.