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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. mjbuf05

    mjbuf05 Premium Member

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    Enjoy. I'll be out and about supporting my local economy, while also taking the necessary precautions.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
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  2. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 26, 2007
    Given that the actual case count is possibly 10 times what the confirmed count is, those aren't very good odds. One in 50 people in your town could have it. In normal non-social-distancing circumstances, you would be coming into contact with an infected person on a regular basis. And with an R0 of 2 or more, it would be spreading rapidly.
     
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  3. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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    My point? You throw out a percentage of 17.9% as if it was the asymptomatic percent of cases on the cruise ship which in reality was over 50% and they pretty much admitted that they more than likely missed some as well. The best you can do is fire back that you didn't claim it was a study without flaws but no mention of your error of throwing out a 17.9% rate as if it was the asymptomatic rate. You are right about one thing in that the Diamond Princess case is , to date, the best overview of potential effect on the population then you want to dismiss it especially after the 17% number was wrong and didn't fit your narrative anymore.

    What I did find interesting was the increasing proportionate number of asymptomatic cases during the quarantine (your 17.9%). Thoughts?

    My statement: Up to 98% of all cases are asymptomatic or mild and what is your guess of the number of these people in this group who have been tested?.
    Your reply: The problem is the definition of "mild" in this context. Basically, if you aren't hospitalized, you are considered "mild" in that classification.
    What does that have to do with my question? I asked you what your thought was of the percentage of that group who had actually been tested.

    I do not throw this info out there to squabble over who is right or wrong but to possibly provide some insight that maybe, just maybe, a hell of a lot more people have already been infected than most believe and that is a great thing.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
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  4. OaktownGator

    OaktownGator Guardian of the GC Galaxy

    Apr 3, 2007
    And hot sauce.

     
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  5. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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    Well said. We will deal with this at least till June 2021. It is mutating pretty rapidly which, in theory, should weaken it going forward.
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    That isn't what the paper said at all. 50% were asymptomatic at the time of test. Then, some got symptoms later (about 32%). That is what that figure is.

    I explicitly stated that many asymptomatic have not been tested. I was pointing out that "mild" doesn't mean what it does colloquially and that the figure you utilized was likely misleading.

    I don't start analysis from what I want to be true. Regardless, if the R0 is that high, it is not a "great" thing as it means we will likely incur at least 100,000 additional deaths due to this disease with no ability to prevent it prior to herd immunity. I don't consider that great news.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2020
  7. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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  8. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  9. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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    Did the guy in Germany touch the salt shaker then his face I assume? I would sure take precautions (mask and sanitizer) when going out to a restaurant and previously being infected (which I was in early March) would be a plus.
     
  10. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Here is the updated world o meter stats as of 1:30 pm edt. There were 4 states with 0 deaths over the last 2 days.

    c 5-2-1.JPG
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  11. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    c 5-2-3.JPG
     
  12. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    Bombshell US intelligence claims China lied about coronavirus outbreak | Daily Mail Online

    It appears the international community is coming together on finding that China is at fault for Covid-19.

    Bombshell 'Five Eyes' Western intelligence dossier claims China lied about human-to-human transmission, 'disappeared' whistle-blowers and refused to help other countries prepare a vaccine for coronavirus

    Five Eyes - the pooling of intelligence by the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand - laid bare its scathing assessment of the Xi Jinping administration in a memo obtained by the Australian Saturday Telegraph.


     
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  13. buckeyegator

    buckeyegator Premium Member

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    i am shocked i tell you, shocked that china lied.gotta use a casablanca line when you can.
     
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  14. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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    China's media propaganda I do not believe is going to be able to overcome the supposed evidence that is now coming out. Is it just a matter of time before Europe joins in?
     
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  15. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    I think that is very likely (if not absolutely certain) that the majority of those infected are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, based on the few studies that have been done. We just haven't done enough testing of the general population to know exactly what the percentages are.
     
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  16. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

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    John Roberts at Fox News is reporting that there is confidence from some of the agencies in the IC that this came from a lab.



     
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  17. gatorstevelp

    gatorstevelp Premium Member

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    I stand corrected as I hurriedly read through the study and did not take the time to fully comprehend all that was in there. I would add that the possibility is high that a lower median age of those infected would likely produce a higher asymptomatic result. ;)
     
  18. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    But will Europe take action? That is often the difficult part--getting Europe to take action. They will nod their heads all day long, but do nothing.
     
  19. ncargat1

    ncargat1 VIP Member

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    So, in summary. We still have no clue and we are all still guessing, but we are going to throw this further inflammatory and politically driven headline out there. Nice.
    Rather than continuing to focus on how to control/stop the virus, we can now have even more unfounded pissing contests with China. That should be helpful in getting the supplies we need.

     
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  20. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise GC Hall of Fame

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    So NOW we are suppose to believe the IC.:confused::rolleyes: especially when FOX says so.:emoji_upside_down::emoji_upside_down:
     
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