Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

It will be interesting to find out what happened there. Up until a few weeks ago Kentucky wasn't hit as hard as Tennessee, then their deaths took off.

 

much easier to maintain 6' clearance in a restaurant than in Publix

 

I ask because I'm not sure either but I ask because we do not yet know the true mortality rate of COVID-19. We do know the majority of those who are infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and yes, the first year of this there are more deaths but we do not yet know, with certainty, that it has a higher mortality rate than the flu. COVID-19 has a higher mortality rate is thrown around as fact but that is NOT a known fact as of yet. I believe the rates of mortality are going to be very similar when it is all said and done. The difference will be that a lot more people will be infected this year with COVID-19 than the flu.

 

Malarkey. It's because it's impossible to eat and drink while wearing a mask. The idiocy of the whole thing is exposed. If they really believed it was dangerous, they should have put safety above all and kept the restaurants closed. Hell, at least in the stores, most people aren't sticking around. If anyone in a restaurant has the virus, they're going to be sitting in there for an hour with no facial cover. The commission didn't dare piss off the restaurateurs, knowing they'd all be out on their asses next election because of the influence the owners of eateries have in this town. It's just their petty political sniping at the governor's decision.

 

I would concur that if testing procedures have not changed and the people who are testing positive currently are equally as sick as those who previously tested positive that the deaths would follow unless treatment procedures have improved. Hopefully they are testing more people including those who are asymptomatic thus it is a healthier group of positive cases.

 

I agree that this partial reopening is happening too soon. Lots of political decisions taking priority over scientific decisions. I think that a lot of these politicians making these choices are going to have to rely on the "we didn't know" defense when the case count and death count go up as a result of their decisions

 

The people in the restaurants are not required to wear masks. How are you going to eat while wearing one?

 

So you figure that more than 45,000,000 have had this (which was the infected estimate when the flu killed 60k)?

And we actually don't "know" for a fact that the majority of those infected are asymptomatic. This puts the number at 17.9%:

http://med.stanford.edu/content/dam/sm/id/documents/COVID/AsymptCOVID_TransmissionShip.pdf

This has a variety of studies ranging from 25%-50%.

50 Percent of People with COVID-19 Aren't Aware They Have Virus

Pretty big leap to claiming that is a known fact.

 

what about if the group that sat there before you had infected people in it? Do we trust our lives on the belief that the waiter properly sanitized every surface between patrons?

 

They said any face covering would be OK. How about this?

 

First, why are you so mad at needing to wear a face mask? I live in a hotspot and have been wearing one when I go out for a few weeks. It really isn't the end of the world.

Second, it would seem that increasing risk by increasing the amount of traffic would likely warrant increased safety precautions in a rational world, right? It would seem particularly easy to do this when engaging in activities that are not harmed by wearing a face covering.

 

No more of a leap than saying the number is lower. You provided the Diamond Princess cruise article. The 17.9% was NOT the asymptomatic ratio but was the delay adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections ....did you read the entire article? On the Diamond Princess over 50% of the cases were asymptomatic in a group where 75% of those who tested positive were 60 or older. From the article: "Our study is not free from limitations. First, laboratory tests by PCR were conducted focusing on symptomatic cases especially at the early phase of the quarantine. If asymptomatic cases were missed as a result of this, it would mean we have underestimated the asymptomatic proportion. Second, it is worth noting that the passengers and crew whose data were employed in our analysis do not constitute a random sample from the general population. Considering that most of the passengers were 60 years and older, the nature of the age distribution may lead to underestimation if older individuals tend to experience more symptoms. An age standardised asymptomatic proportion would be more appropriate in that case. Third, the presence of symptoms in cases with COVID-19 may correlate with other factors unrelated to age including prior health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and/or immunosuppression. Therefore, more detailed data documenting the baseline health of the individuals including the presence of underlying diseases or comorbidities would be useful to remove the bias in estimates of the asymptomatic proportion".
The Iceland study you provided shows at least a 50% asymptomatic ratio. Up to 98% of all cases are asymptomatic or mild and what is your guess of the number of these people in this group who have been tested?. Realize that the false negatives of the tests are pretty high and I would imagine the majority of the asymptomatic group has not been tested.
Study NextStrain and their tracking of over 39,000 strains of this virus already. I have said it before that some within the COVID team at Johns Hopkins believe the actual number infected is at least 50 times that of the reported cases. No need to argue about it as no one knows for sure either way until a reliable antibody test is available along with extensive testing but the guy I follow, who is deeply connected, believes it is much more widely spread than most believe.

 

I didn't make a claim.

Yes, that means some people tested positive while asymptomatic and gained symptoms later. What is your point?

Okay? I didn't claim it was a study without flaws, but it is one of the best looks at a full population that we have.

Not factually accurate. It did not show "at least" 50% asymptomatic ratio. And that was the high estimate, yes. Still a pretty big leap to us knowing that it is a majority.

The problem is the definition of "mild" in this context. Basically, if you aren't hospitalized, you are considered "mild" in that classification.

Yes, the majority of the asymptomatic group have not been tested in the US. You are correct about that. However, it should be noted that the serology also likely have false positive rates that are pushing those figures up.

It is fair to say that we don't know. It is not fair to say "We do know the majority of those who are infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic."

 

After refusing for weeks, Florida releases nursing home records, showing flurry of deaths

 

You're correct. We don't know. I have little doubt that the true death rate & CFR are smaller than what is known right now, but I have some doubt that the true number of pos. unknown cases would make the rates look like the flu. Not impossible, but I have serious doubt.

This to me, however, isn't the only way to look at it.

We've seen so many die in such a short period of time compared to the flu that this partly what makes it so dangerous; along with the lack of a vaxx and other protections. Unlike what we can assume with the flu given its seasonality, we cannot expect that sars-cov-2 will die out over the summer like the flu does or that there won't be rebound as mitigation policies are lifted.

 

If flu deaths were counted like COVID-19 deaths, the worst recent flu season evidently killed 15,620 Americans

 

What about the significant number of people in the Grocery store 'WITHOUT' a mask? We are asked to wear masks to protect me from you. So, those that do not wear a mask obviously DO NOT care about my RIGHT to continued health. I mean wear a mask with a big F-U painted on it, but everyone has a civil obligation to wear a mask until we have a vaccine! Those without masks are intentionally exposing ME to increased risk!