i do not understand the uproar over partial states re-opening. its not like people are not out anyway, and, afterall, it is a choice, no one is putting a gun to peoples heads and making them go out.they say 233000 extra deaths from this, that is about 170000 more than right now, 85000 a month for 2 months,almost 3000 a day,seems to much doom and gloom to me.
It does seem high to me too. I think we just don't know enough about this virus, including how much is the transmission via outdoor fomite which would be significantly reduced in summer weather. Just FYI, I think they meant 233k additional deaths, not total, and it's for full reopening, which I assume includes things like concerts and sports arenas so maybe that's why the high estimate.
FDA just gave EUA for Remdesivir Gilead gets emergency FDA authorization for remdesivir to treat coronavirus, Trump says
i seriously doubt we have full re-opening by the end of june, my guess is states will go from 25% to 50% to 75% then to 100%, first 2 after 2 or 3 weeks of data, then monthly, again according to data.
Here is a different look. Our states and other countries listed by death per million. I stopped at Florida's 64 per million. Our national average sits between Maryland and Illinois.
Trying to capitalize on the limited success of Remdesivir, NIH is already running trials now pairing Remdesivir with other drugs to further improve people's chances of surviving and more quickly recovering from this virus. One such high profile trial that is in the works is going to pair Remdesivir with Eli Lilly's Olumiant. Since it is unlikely that we will find that single silver bullet for all cases in call people, this next wave of studies pairing up beneficial drugs are critical to bridge us over to the day a vaccine exists. Coronavirus tracker: T cells could provide hint to how Roche's Actemra treats COVID-19 patients
The fact our president is allowed to appoint such an idiot stick to Secretary of Education reveals a substantial flaw in the system. Apparently there are no standards. And then they spend 100s or 1000s of human hrs on a confirmation hearing which confirms she offers ZERO to the post, but is confirmed for the position. It's like a bad movie.
I haven’t been keeping up on the Florida thread since I don’t live there anymore so forgive me if you guys have seen this.. but. Whoa.
You asked for data so you might be interested in this Harvard study that provides the number of tests needed to reopen based on population. Many states short of Covid-19 testing levels needed for reopening - STAT. Many Florida hospitals are pointing to it (I know board members). According to this study, Florida needs to perform about 16,000 more tests per day if they wish to catch hot spots before they become major issues. This is about 50% more tests than were performed this week. I hope we get lucky and are ok reopening, but would feel much better if this was driven by science and experts. And now Fauci will not be allowed to testify before the House. Perhaps because he said during a March 12 House hearing about testing: "The system is not really geared to what we need right now, what you are asking for," Fauci said. "That is a failing." We have experts. We need to hear from them and use their knowledge to guide our responses.
The models showing around 100k deaths by May 23 seem the most realistic to me. What is going to cause deaths to significantly decline between now and then?
I watched the press conference announcing the Gilead drug and I believe Dr. Birx said that the double blind study was stopped early because of the results and that the people getting the placebo were switched over to the real drug. One of the problems with human studies,
I actually work for Gilead as a contract programmer. As a company to work for, it's not bad. I'm not on the remdesivir studies, and I'm kinda glad I'm not -- those must be pretty stressful right now. But at the same time, it would be pretty interesting to be part of.
Big surprise about Fauci, isnt it? He might be asked the right questions. And the goal of the Trump administration has been to suppress information about them”numbers,” to keep them as low as they can. Or there would be national reporting requirements that would override orders like the Florida Department is Health’s order to stay MEs.
It is interesting but note two things: the median time to recovery was 11 days rather than 15 days. Also, the change in mortality rate was not statistically significant. This may help flatten the curve (limits resource use) but it in no way changes the spread and if it changes mortality at all, it seems to be minor. This drug might help, but really does not move the needle significantly from a policy perspective, unfortunately.
