Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Whether a drug can be administered orally depends on its physicochemical (eg solubility, lipophilicity etc) properties and the metabolic stability (ie should not be degraded rapidly in the stomach/gut or by the liver) among many other factors. Remdesivir has poor hepatic stability meaning it will get chewed up by the liver extensively and the resulting blood concentrations will be inadequate to make it effective. So, for remdesevir, the possibility of oral dosage form is extremely unlikely.

 

Thanks for that answer, another question since I am very ignorant on this topic. Are IV drugs produced as easily as drugs that you take orally? Will producing enough Remdesivir be an issue?

 

It’s not necessarily an IV vs oral issue. It depends on the complexity of the drug.

Biologic drugs (proteins, monocolonal antibodies) are more difficult to produce, control quality (more likely to produce immune reactions) and have higher cost of goods. These drugs are usually IV since proteins are large complex structures and cannot be formulated into oral dosage forms and also, they degrade easily in the stomach. The antibody drugs being tested to combat cytokine storms fall in this category.

For small molecule drugs (remdesivir, Tylenol etc) that most people usually use, the complexity is usually lower than for biologics (akin to bicycle v/s a car) and determined by the synthetic route. Think of it as small LEGO pieces being put together step by step chemically to make a final structure. So the more number of steps involved, the more complex it is to make. Additionally, stability and easy of manufacturing (the drug powder needs to flow into machines easily without clogging, can be pressed into tablets etc) are additional factors that determine the complexity.

Remdesivir is a small molecule and should not be complicated to manufacture, especially for a company like Gilead. But only their R&D people will have the definitive answer for this.

 

Moderna starting risk manufacturing of its vaccine as early as July and signing up international manufacturing partners to get to 1 billion doses per year.

Coronavirus tracker: NIH pairs Gilead's remdesivir with Lilly's Olumiant; Gilead CEO lays out plans

 

Given that you have an opinion on this, you must have formed some conclusion, no? Not being snarky here, but in this context opinion:

Definition of opinion
1a: a view, judgment, or appraisal formed in the mind about a particular matter

If you do not admit to a conclusion, perhaps you formed a judgement, or an appraisal.

 

No, it wasn't a conclusion or a judgment or even an appraisal...I would consider it more of a respectful challenge for why you would present such a harsh take. It came off, to me, as overly negative in an ambiguous way. Based on the information provided, it still strikes me as overly negative. I realize we are not going to agree on this, and the reason I asked you about the percentage was along the lines of thinking about things in a practical way. I think there are many questions that could be answered that would get you to (at a minimum) reconsider the extreme expression of your belief. But I realize that we don't need to take that up here. Peace.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

So how many people do you think could sit in the restaurant at 1 time.
Total? Per table?

 

A restaurant? You obviously want people to die.

 

nah, in a mexican restaraunt all you get is , well you know the punch line...

 

Sorry to keep probing but I'm just interested in capacity.
So were you sitting by yourself?
If every table only had 1 patron would it sit be 20?

If you can see where I'm going, these places are hoping groups 3/4 or a family comes in rather than the single customer who is social distancing.

If these places get single customers at a time taking up a 4 top. They still need to social distance, so they are not making as much money per table.

 

I live less than a 1/2 mile from a great old school drive-in. & blessedly they are opening tonight. Even they are gonna do 1/2 capacity.

 

restocking the liquor shelf, they saw you coming curtis.

 

They keep finding new lows.

DeVos sued for seizing student loan borrowers' wages during pandemic

 

538 is now starting to collect COVID death projection models. So far, they include the IHME (University of Washington) model that has gotten a lot of play as well as models from University of Texas , Northeastern University, Los Alamos, MIT, and Columbia.

Unsurprisingly, the IHME is the lowest point estimate for deaths right now. They also have state-by-state projections. It should be noted that each of these models is built with different assumptions as to what preventative measures are taken going forward. However, highly interesting to see each of the models at once and with local data added.

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

 

the death range of those 5 models goes from a low of 72000 to a high of 114000.obviously 72000 is way to low, 114000 assumes about 1700 a day to may 31, the end of their current estimates.

 

I like that they let you look back at what those models were predicting in the past and compare it to what really happened. Interesting stuff, thanks for posting it.

 

Penn Wharton Budget Model Projects Effects of Reopening States: Reopening Could Cause up to 233,000 Extra Deaths by June 30 but Save up to 18,000,000 Jobs - News

• If states do not reopen before June 30, cumulative national deaths due to coronavirus would rise to around 117,000 by June 30 (including deaths prior to May 1). GDP on June 30, 2020 would be 11.6 percent lower than GDP one year earlier (“Year-Over-Year” or “YOY”). About 18.6 million jobs would be lost between May 1 and June 30.
• Partially reopening would cause 45,000 additional deaths by June 30, relative to not reopening. GDP on June 30 would increase by 1 percent, from an 11.6 percent YOY loss without reopening to a 10.7 YOY loss with partial reopening. About 4.4 million jobs would be saved, for a total of 14.0 million jobs lost between May 1 and June 30.
• Fully reopening would lead to an additional 233,000 deaths by the end of June relative to not reopening. GDP on June 30 would increase by about 1.5 percentage points relative to not reopening. Almost all net job losses between May 1 and June 30 would be eliminated.
• If, however, individuals see full reopening as a “return to normal” and as a result relax their own voluntary social distancing practices—behaving in a manner consistent with Feb 1, 2020—cumulative national deaths would reach 950,000 by June 30. Job losses would turn to a net positive of 4.1 million in jobs gained, erasing some of the job losses prior to May 1.